IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v240y2023ics0951832023004647.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Surrogate-modeling-assisted creep-fatigue reliability assessment in a low-pressure turbine disc considering multi-source uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Run-Zi
  • Gu, Hang-Hang
  • Liu, Yu
  • Miura, Hideo
  • Zhang, Xian-Cheng
  • Tu, Shan-Tung

Abstract

This paper proposes a surrogate modeling approach based on XGboost machine learning technique, in order to establish a data-driven mapping relationship between input and output abstracted from practical finite element analysis (FEA) results. It facilitates novel insights into an efficient application of creep-fatigue reliability assessment in low-pressure turbine disk without a large amount of high-fidelity FEA cases. In detail, a general technical route is proposed for the probabilistic estimations of creep-fatigue lifetimes, where the multi-source uncertainties in the sequenced levels are synchronously considered. Subjected to typical creep-fatigue load spectrum, precise weakness hotspot is identified at the 1st bottom fir-tree groove of the turbine disk. Based on hotspot-based strategy, it is found that XGboost-involved surrogate modeling approach significantly improves the computational efficiency. The common results show that logarithmic creep-fatigue lifetimes roughly obey the normal distributions with the present of uncertainty sources, regardless of the multi-source combinations. Specifically, geometric tolerance plays an important role in reliability assessment results, which not only makes conservative gap but also shows high sensitivity in the reliability assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Run-Zi & Gu, Hang-Hang & Liu, Yu & Miura, Hideo & Zhang, Xian-Cheng & Tu, Shan-Tung, 2023. "Surrogate-modeling-assisted creep-fatigue reliability assessment in a low-pressure turbine disc considering multi-source uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:240:y:2023:i:c:s0951832023004647
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109550
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832023004647
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109550?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kleijnen, Jack P.C., 2009. "Kriging metamodeling in simulation: A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(3), pages 707-716, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Haijie & Li, Bo & Lei, Liming & Xuan, Fuzhen, 2024. "Uncertainty-aware fatigue-life prediction of additively manufactured Hastelloy X superalloy using a physics-informed probabilistic neural network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Wang, Yifei & Xie, Mingjiang & Su, Chun, 2024. "Multi-objective maintenance strategy for corroded pipelines considering the correlation of different failure modes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Gao, Hai-Feng & Wang, Yu-Hang & Li, Yang & Zio, Enrico, 2024. "Distributed-collaborative surrogate modeling approach for creep-fatigue reliability assessment of turbine blades considering multi-source uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    4. Gu, Hang-Hang & Wang, Run-Zi & Zhang, Kun & Li, Kai-Shang & Sun, Li & Zhang, Xian-Cheng & Tu, Shan-Tung, 2025. "Damage-driven framework for reliability assessment of steam turbine rotors operating under flexible conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    5. Deyin, Jiang & Zhixuan, Gao & Keke, Wang & Senke, Jiang & Weimin, Cui & Song, Bifeng, 2025. "A reliability analysis method for evaluating performance degradation considering the coupling of multiple progressive damage factors and multiple stochastic factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tian, Wei & Song, Jitian & Li, Zhanyong & de Wilde, Pieter, 2014. "Bootstrap techniques for sensitivity analysis and model selection in building thermal performance analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 320-328.
    2. Zitrou, Athena & Bedford, Tim & Walls, Lesley, 2016. "A model for availability growth with application to new generation offshore wind farms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 83-94.
    3. Zhang, Wei & (Ato) Xu, Wangtu, 2017. "Simulation-based robust optimization for the schedule of single-direction bus transit route: The design of experiment," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 203-230.
    4. Xuefei Lu & Alessandro Rudi & Emanuele Borgonovo & Lorenzo Rosasco, 2020. "Faster Kriging: Facing High-Dimensional Simulators," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 233-249, January.
    5. Wang, Zequn & Wang, Pingfeng, 2015. "A double-loop adaptive sampling approach for sensitivity-free dynamic reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 346-356.
    6. Song, Zhouzhou & Zhang, Hanyu & Liu, Zhao & Zhu, Ping, 2023. "A two-stage Kriging estimation variance reduction method for efficient time-variant reliability-based design optimization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    7. Puppo, L. & Pedroni, N. & Maio, F. Di & Bersano, A. & Bertani, C. & Zio, E., 2021. "A Framework based on Finite Mixture Models and Adaptive Kriging for Characterizing Non-Smooth and Multimodal Failure Regions in a Nuclear Passive Safety System," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Menafoglio, Alessandra & Secchi, Piercesare, 2017. "Statistical analysis of complex and spatially dependent data: A review of Object Oriented Spatial Statistics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(2), pages 401-410.
    9. Mehdad, E. & Kleijnen, Jack P.C., 2014. "Classic Kriging versus Kriging with Bootstrapping or Conditional Simulation : Classic Kriging's Robust Confidence Intervals and Optimization (Revised version of CentER DP 2013-038)," Other publications TiSEM 4915047b-afe4-4fc7-8a1c-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Stephen Ntiri Asomani & Jianping Yuan & Longyan Wang & Desmond Appiah & Kofi Asamoah Adu-Poku, 2020. "The Impact of Surrogate Models on the Multi-Objective Optimization of Pump-As-Turbine (PAT)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-29, May.
    11. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    12. Guo, Shuhao & Li, Xianyue & Šimůnek, Jirí & Wang, Jun & Zhang, Yuehong & Wang, Ya'nan & Zhen, Zhixin & He, Rui, 2024. "Experimental and numerical evaluation of soil water and salt dynamics in a corn field with shallow saline groundwater and crop-season drip and autumn post-harvest irrigations," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    13. Wen, Zhixun & Pei, Haiqing & Liu, Hai & Yue, Zhufeng, 2016. "A Sequential Kriging reliability analysis method with characteristics of adaptive sampling regions and parallelizability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 170-179.
    14. Gaspar, B. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2017. "Adaptive surrogate model with active refinement combining Kriging and a trust region method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 277-291.
    15. Palar, Pramudita Satria & Zuhal, Lavi Rizki & Shimoyama, Koji, 2023. "Enhancing the explainability of regression-based polynomial chaos expansion by Shapley additive explanations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    16. J.-J. Sinou & L. Nechak & S. Besset, 2018. "Kriging Metamodeling in Rotordynamics: Application for Predicting Critical Speeds and Vibrations of a Flexible Rotor," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-26, March.
    17. Mert Edali, 2022. "Pattern‐oriented analysis of system dynamics models via random forests," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 38(2), pages 135-166, April.
    18. Turati, Pietro & Pedroni, Nicola & Zio, Enrico, 2017. "Simulation-based exploration of high-dimensional system models for identifying unexpected events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 317-330.
    19. Morales-Enciso, Sergio & Branke, Juergen, 2015. "Tracking global optima in dynamic environments with efficient global optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(3), pages 744-755.
    20. Peter Frazier & Warren Powell & Savas Dayanik, 2009. "The Knowledge-Gradient Policy for Correlated Normal Beliefs," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 599-613, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:240:y:2023:i:c:s0951832023004647. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.