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An approach on lifetime estimation of distribution transformers based on degree of polymerization

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  • Ariannik, Mohamadreza
  • Razi-Kazemi, Ali A.
  • Lehtonen, Matti

Abstract

Lifetime of oil-immersed transformers is highly dependent on condition of paper insulation. This contribution is aimed to quantify the deterioration and ageing process of the paper insulation of distribution transformers based on degree of polymerization (DP). The proposed approach involves real operating conditions of a transformer such as variable ambient temperature, load factor, and moisture content of the paper insulation through calculation of hot-spot temperature to estimate remaining lifetime of the transformers. The results indicate that a DP profile obtained based on actual conditions is completely different to that usually discussed in other researches under completely constant conditions. Consequently, the proposed dynamic DP model could predict lifetime of the transformers more precisely based on real-time measurable quantities. In addition to the remnant lifetime estimation, the proposed dynamic DP profile is utilized to suggest the optimum time for implementing reductions in moisture content of the paper insulation through three scenarios regarding the practical limitations. Finally, reliability of the transformer is evaluated based on statistical data.

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  • Ariannik, Mohamadreza & Razi-Kazemi, Ali A. & Lehtonen, Matti, 2020. "An approach on lifetime estimation of distribution transformers based on degree of polymerization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:198:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019308555
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.106881
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Wei & Shao, Changzheng & Hu, Bo & Li, Weizhan & Sun, Yue & Xie, Kaigui & Zio, Enrico & Li, Wenyuan, 2023. "A restoration-clustering-decomposition learning framework for aging-related failure rate estimation of distribution transformers," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    2. Aizpurua, J.I. & Stewart, B.G. & McArthur, S.D.J. & Penalba, M. & Barrenetxea, M. & Muxika, E. & Ringwood, J.V., 2022. "Probabilistic forecasting informed failure prognostics framework for improved RUL prediction under uncertainty: A transformer case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    3. Enze Zhang & Jiang Liu & Chaohai Zhang & Peijun Zheng & Yosuke Nakanishi & Thomas Wu, 2023. "State-of-Art Review on Chemical Indicators for Monitoring the Aging Status of Oil-Immersed Transformer Paper Insulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-31, January.
    4. Dias, Luis & Leitão, Armando & Guimarães, Luis, 2021. "Resource definition and allocation for a multi-asset portfolio with heterogeneous degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    5. Zhengping Liang & Yan Fang & Hao Cheng & Yongbin Sun & Bo Li & Kai Li & Wenxuan Zhao & Zhongxu Sun & Yiyi Zhang, 2024. "Innovative Transformer Life Assessment Considering Moisture and Oil Circulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-21, January.

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