IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v193y2020ics0951832019301619.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards

Author

Listed:
  • Dhulipala, Somayajulu L.N.
  • Flint, Madeleine M.

Abstract

Civil infrastructure systems are subjected to multiple hazards, including natural and anthropogenic, that disrupt their function or the level of service offered. Estimating the function recovery of these systems (or how soon normalcy of operations will be restored) when subjected to repeated hazard events by considering the inter-event dependencies is an important problem in multihazard infrastructure resilience. However, this problem has been less addressed in the field. This paper proposes a series of semi-Markov processes model to capture the inter-event dependencies in infrastructure recovery when subjected to successive hazard events. Recovery after each new hazard event is represented by a unique semi-Markov process that models the reduced recovery rates and the increased recovery times caused by the system’s incomplete recovery from the preceding event. Two novel formulations of the inter-event dependency modeling, namely Maximal Effects Dependency (considers the worst impact of two successive hazard events) and Cumulative Effects Dependency (considers the aggregated impacts of two successive hazard events), are proposed and discussed. The model is demonstrated by considering the following applications: Three-state system subjected to deterministic and random occurrences of identical hazard events; and Multihazard resilience of a building in Charleston, SC, considering earthquake and hurricane hazards. Results indicate that considering inter-event dependencies in recovery modeling can lead to lesser-predicted resilience, thereby affecting resilience-based decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Dhulipala, Somayajulu L.N. & Flint, Madeleine M., 2020. "Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019301619
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106659
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832019301619
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106659?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, Xiaoyue & Hillston, Jane, 2015. "Mission reliability of semi-Markov systems under generalized operational time requirements," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 122-129.
    2. Malefaki, Sonia & Limnios, Nikolaos & Dersin, Pierre, 2014. "Reliability of maintained systems under a semi-Markov setting," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 282-290.
    3. Song, Sanling & Coit, David W. & Feng, Qianmei, 2014. "Reliability for systems of degrading components with distinct component shock sets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 115-124.
    4. Zhao, S. & Liu, X. & Zhuo, Y., 2017. "Hybrid Hidden Markov Models for resilience metrics in a dynamic infrastructure system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 84-97.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tan, Zhizhong & Wu, Bei & Che, Ada, 2023. "Resilience modeling for multi-state systems based on Markov processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    2. Dui, Hongyan & Zhang, Huanqi & Dong, Xinghui & Zhang, Songru, 2024. "Cascading failure and resilience optimization of unmanned vehicle distribution networks in IoT," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    3. Amanda Melendez & David Caballero-Russi & Mariantonieta Gutierrez Soto & Luis Felipe Giraldo, 2022. "Computational models of community resilience," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1121-1152, March.
    4. Yao, Jinyong & Gao, Zhanfei & He, Yihai & Peng, Chong, 2024. "Integrated mission reliability modeling for multistate manufacturing systems considering heterogeneous feedstocks based on extended stochastic flow manufacturing network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    5. Xie, Lin & Lundteigen, Mary Ann & Liu, Yiliu, 2021. "Performance analysis of safety instrumented systems against cascading failures during prolonged demands," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala, 2021. "Gaussian Kernel Methods for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Mid-Rise Buildings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-25, March.
    7. Wei, Yian & Cheng, Yao & Liao, Haitao, 2024. "Optimal resilience-based restoration of a system subject to recurrent dependent hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    8. Suo, Weilan & Wang, Lin & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Probabilistic risk assessment for interdependent critical infrastructures: A scenario-driven dynamic stochastic model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    9. Dui, Hongyan & Lu, Yaohui & Wu, Shaomin, 2024. "Competing risks-based resilience approach for multi-state systems under multiple shocks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levitin, Gregory & Finkelstein, Maxim & Dai, Yuanshun, 2018. "Optimizing availability of heterogeneous standby systems exposed to shocks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 137-145.
    2. Bo, Yimin & Bao, Minglei & Ding, Yi & Hu, Yishuang, 2024. "A DNN-based reliability evaluation method for multi-state series-parallel systems considering semi-Markov process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    3. Ke Chen & Xian Zhao & Qingan Qiu, 2022. "Optimal Task Abort and Maintenance Policies Considering Time Redundancy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Qiu, Qingan & Cui, Lirong, 2019. "Gamma process based optimal mission abort policy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Jacek Paś, 2023. "Issues Related to Power Supply Reliability in Integrated Electronic Security Systems Operated in Buildings and Vast Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-22, April.
    6. Liu, Yao & Wang, Yashun & Fan, Zhengwei & Bai, Guanghan & Chen, Xun, 2021. "Reliability modeling and a statistical inference method of accelerated degradation testing with multiple stresses and dependent competing failure processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    7. Yousefi, Nooshin & Coit, David W. & Song, Sanling, 2020. "Reliability analysis of systems considering clusters of dependent degrading components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    8. Lyu, Hao & Qu, Hongchen & Yang, Zaiyou & Ma, Li & Lu, Bing & Pecht, Michael, 2023. "Reliability analysis of dependent competing failure processes with time-varying δ shock model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    9. Zhang, Jingru & Fang, Zhigeng & Dong, Wenjie & Liu, Sifeng & Chen, Ding, 2024. "A mission success probability assessment framework for phased-mission-systems using extended graphical evaluation and review technique," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    10. Jingjing Kong & Slobodan P. Simonovic, 2019. "Probabilistic Multiple Hazard Resilience Model of an Interdependent Infrastructure System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1843-1863, August.
    11. Amanda Melendez & David Caballero-Russi & Mariantonieta Gutierrez Soto & Luis Felipe Giraldo, 2022. "Computational models of community resilience," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1121-1152, March.
    12. Sun, Fuqiang & Li, Hao & Cheng, Yuanyuan & Liao, Haitao, 2021. "Reliability analysis for a system experiencing dependent degradation processes and random shocks based on a nonlinear Wiener process model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    13. Li, Xiang-Yu & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Li, Yan-Feng & Xiong, Xiaoyan, 2021. "A Markov regenerative process model for phased mission systems under internal degradation and external shocks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    14. Fang, Chen & Cui, Lirong, 2021. "Reliability evaluation for balanced systems with auto-balancing mechanisms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    15. Yi, He & Cui, Lirong & Shen, Jingyuan & Li, Yan, 2018. "Stochastic properties and reliability measures of discrete-time semi-Markovian systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 162-173.
    16. Cai, Baoping & Xie, Min & Liu, Yonghong & Liu, Yiliu & Feng, Qiang, 2018. "Availability-based engineering resilience metric and its corresponding evaluation methodology," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 216-224.
    17. He Yi & Lirong Cui & Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan & Jingyuan Shen, 2022. "Multi-Point and Multi-Interval Bounded-Covering Availability Measures for Aggregated Markovian Repairable Systems," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 2427-2453, December.
    18. Youba Nait Belaid & Patrick Coudray & José Sanchez-Torres & Yi-Ping Fang & Zhiguo Zeng & Anne Barros, 2021. "Resilience Quantification of Smart Distribution Networks—A Bird’s Eye View Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-29, May.
    19. Xiaoyue Wang & Ru Ning & Xian Zhao, 2023. "Generalized mixed shock model for multi-component systems in the shock environment with a change point," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(4), pages 619-635, August.
    20. Adel Mottahedi & Farhang Sereshki & Mohammad Ataei & Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou & Abbas Barabadi, 2021. "The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019301619. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.