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Probabilistic Multiple Hazard Resilience Model of an Interdependent Infrastructure System

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  • Jingjing Kong
  • Slobodan P. Simonovic

Abstract

Multiple hazard resilience is of significant practical value because most regions of the world are subject to multiple natural and technological hazards. An analysis and assessment approach for multiple hazard spatiotemporal resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems is developed using network theory and a numerical analysis. First, we define multiple hazard resilience and present a quantitative probabilistic metric based on the expansion of a single hazard deterministic resilience model. Second, we define a multiple hazard relationship analysis model with a focus on the impact of hazards on an infrastructure. Subsequently, a relationship matrix is constructed with temporal and spatial dimensions. Further, a general method for the evaluation of direct impacts on an individual infrastructure under multiple hazards is proposed. Third, we present an analysis of indirect multiple hazard impacts on interdependent infrastructures and a joint restoration model of an infrastructure system. Finally, a simplified two‐layer interdependent infrastructure network is used as a case study for illustrating the proposed methodology. The results show that temporal and spatial relationships of multiple hazards significantly influence system resilience. Moreover, the interdependence among infrastructures further magnifies the impact on resilience value. The main contribution of the article is a new multiple hazard resilience evaluation approach that is capable of integrating the impacts of multiple hazard interactions, interdependence of network components (layers), and restoration strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingjing Kong & Slobodan P. Simonovic, 2019. "Probabilistic Multiple Hazard Resilience Model of an Interdependent Infrastructure System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1843-1863, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:8:p:1843-1863
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13305
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mottahedi, Adel & Sereshki, Farhang & Ataei, Mohammad & Qarahasanlou, Ali Nouri & Barabadi, Abbas, 2021. "Resilience estimation of critical infrastructure systems: Application of expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    3. Lin Wang & Yuping Xing, 2022. "Risk Assessment of a Coupled Natural Gas and Electricity Market Considering Dual Interactions: A System Dynamics Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Kong, Jingjing & Zhang, Chao & Simonovic, Slobodan P., 2021. "Optimizing the resilience of interdependent infrastructures to regional natural hazards with combined improvement measures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    5. Shao Sun & Qiang Zhang & Yuanxin Xu & Ruyue Yuan, 2021. "Integrated Assessments of Meteorological Hazards across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-14, September.
    6. Adel Mottahedi & Farhang Sereshki & Mohammad Ataei & Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou & Abbas Barabadi, 2021. "The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, March.
    7. Cheng, Yao & Elsayed, E.A. & Chen, Xi, 2021. "Random Multi Hazard Resilience Modeling of Engineered Systems and Critical Infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    8. Suo, Weilan & Wang, Lin & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Probabilistic risk assessment for interdependent critical infrastructures: A scenario-driven dynamic stochastic model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

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