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Evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times addressing model and parameter uncertainties

Author

Listed:
  • Martorell, S.
  • Martón, I.
  • Villamizar, M.
  • Sánchez, A.I.
  • Carlos, S.

Abstract

This paper presents an approach and an example of application for the evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times within the License Basis of a Nuclear Power Plant based on the use of the Probabilistic Risk Assessment addressing identification, treatment and analysis of uncertainties in an integrated manner. It allows full development of a three tired approach (Tier 1–3) following the principles of the risk-informed decision-making accounting for uncertainties as proposed by many regulators. Completion Time is the maximum outage time a safety related equipment is allowed to be down, e.g. for corrective maintenance, which is established within the Limiting Conditions for Operation included into Technical Specifications for operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. The case study focuses on a Completion Time change of the Accumulators System of a Nuclear Power Plant using a level 1 PRA. It focuses on several sources of model and parameter uncertainties. The results obtained show the risk impact of the proposed CT change including both types of epistemic uncertainties is small as compared with current safety goals of concern to Tier 1. However, what concerns to Tier 2 and 3, the results obtained show how the use of some traditional and uncertainty importance measures helps in identifying high risky configurations that should be avoided in NPP technical specifications no matter the duration of CT (Tier 2), and other configurations that could take part of a configuration risk management program (Tier 3).

Suggested Citation

  • Martorell, S. & Martón, I. & Villamizar, M. & Sánchez, A.I. & Carlos, S., 2014. "Evaluation of risk impact of changes to Completion Times addressing model and parameter uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 190-201.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:130:y:2014:i:c:p:190-201
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.06.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martorell, S. & Sanchez, A. & Carlos, S., 2007. "A tolerance interval based approach to address uncertainty for RAMS+C optimization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(4), pages 408-422.
    2. Tian, Wei, 2013. "A review of sensitivity analysis methods in building energy analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 411-419.
    3. Storlie, Curtis B. & Helton, Jon C., 2008. "Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Description of techniques," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 28-54.
    4. Aven, T. & Nøkland, T.E., 2010. "On the use of uncertainty importance measures in reliability and risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 127-133.
    5. Borgonovo, E. & Smith, C.L., 2012. "Composite multilinearity, epistemic uncertainty and risk achievement worth," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 301-311.
    6. Martorell, S. & Villamizar, M. & Martón, I. & Villanueva, J.F. & Carlos, S. & Sánchez, A.I., 2014. "Evaluation of risk impact of changes to surveillance requirements addressing model and parameter uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 153-165.
    7. Storlie, Curtis B. & Helton, Jon C., 2008. "Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Example results," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 55-77.
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    1. Martorell, P. & Martón, I. & Sánchez, A.I. & Martorell, S. & Sanchez-Saez, F. & Saiz, M., 2018. "Evaluation of risk impact of completion time changes combining PSA and DSA model insight and human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 97-107.
    2. Borysiewicz, Mieczysław & Kowal, Karol & Potempski, Sławomir, 2015. "An application of the value tree analysis methodology within the integrated risk informed decision making for the nuclear facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 113-119.
    3. Martón, I. & Sánchez, A.I. & Martorell, S., 2015. "Ageing PSA incorporating effectiveness of maintenance and testing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 131-140.
    4. Martorell, S. & Martón, I. & Sánchez, A. & Carlos, S., 2020. "Harmonisation of surveillance requirements and maintenance in a context of ageing and obsolescence based on reliability, availability and risk information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

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