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Dynamic connectedness of inflation around the world: A time-varying approach from G7 and E7 countries

Author

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  • Jiang, Yanhui
  • Qu, Bo
  • Hong, Yun
  • Xiao, Xiyue

Abstract

Using advanced econometric techniques of the Time-Varying Parameters Vector Autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-VAR) and the Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) model, this research investigates the dynamics of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) across G7 and E7 countries from January 1993 to January 2023, aiming to comprehensively analyze the international transmission of inflation. The study yields several key findings. Firstly, we ascertain that approximately 64% of inflation volatility can be attributed to international transmission. Secondly, our analysis consistently identifies Turkey and Russia as net exporters of inflation over the study period, while G7 countries and Mexico emerge as persistent net importers. Thirdly, we note a gradual increase in China's inflation connectivity with developing countries following the Asian financial crisis, coupled with a diminishing impact of Chinese inflation transmission to developed nations. Fourthly, we observe a heightened complexity in the inflation transmission network during periods marked by high Total Connectivity Index (TCI) values, compared to those with low TCI values. Lastly, our study underscores that the transmission of international inflation intensifies during periods characterized by extremely high or low international inflation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Yanhui & Qu, Bo & Hong, Yun & Xiao, Xiyue, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness of inflation around the world: A time-varying approach from G7 and E7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 111-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:95:y:2024:i:c:p:111-125
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2024.03.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation spillover; Time-varying parameters vector autoregression with stochastic volatility; Quantile vector autoregression; G7 and E7 countries; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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