Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- N. Groenewold, 2000. "Fundamental Share Prices and Aggregate Real Output," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Wu, Chunchi & Su, Youg-Chern, 1998. "Dynamic relations among international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-84.
- John B. Carlson & Kevin H. Sargent, 1997. "The recent ascent of stock prices: can it be explained by earnings growth or other fundamentals?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-12.
- Richard W. Kopcke, 1997. "Are stocks overvalued?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 21-40.
- Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.
- Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
- Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
- Mauro, Paolo, 2003.
"Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies,"
Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
- Mr. Paolo Mauro, 2000. "Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2000/089, International Monetary Fund.
- John B. Carlson, 1999.
"The recent ascent in stock prices: how exuberant are you?,"
Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
- John B. Carlson, 1999. "The recent ascent in stock prices: how exuberant are you?," The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Dec), pages 8-11,47.
- Barro, Robert J, 1990.
"The Stock Market and Investment,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-131.
- Robert J. Barro, 1989. "The Stock Market and Investment," NBER Working Papers 2925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Miyao, Ryuzo, 1996. "Does a Cointegrating M2 Demand Relation Really Exist in the United States?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 365-380, August.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1992.
"Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "POTESTRESIDS: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Ouliaris-Hansen test for Cointegration on 1st stage residuals," Statistical Software Components RTS00248, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "POTEST: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Ouliaris-Hansen test for Cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTS00247, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "FM: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using Fully Modified Least Squares," Statistical Software Components RTS00069, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
- Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988.
"The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Marke t,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1067-1079, December.
- Matthew D. Shapiro, 1988. "The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy Evidence From the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matthew D. Shapiro, 1988. "The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 876, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: a cointegration approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 229-245.
- Binswanger, Mathias, 2000. "Stock market booms and real economic activity: Is this time different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 387-415, October.
- Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1999. "Causal relations among stock returns and macroeconomic variables in a small, open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-74, January.
- Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2000.
"Is the stock market overvalued?,"
Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Fall), pages 20-40.
- Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2001. "Is the Stock Market Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 8077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "Cointegration Tests of Present Value Models with a Time-Varying Discount Factor," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 17-31, Jan.-Marc.
- Schwert, G William, 1990.
"Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
- G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kwon, Chung S. & Shin, Tai S., 1999. "Cointegration and causality between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-81.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Mathias Binswanger, 1999. "Stock Markets, Speculative Bubbles and Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1749.
- Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2001. "Explaining stock price movements: is there a case for fundamentals?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 22-34.
- Canova, Fabio & De Nicolo', Gianni, 1995. "Stock returns and real activity: A structural approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 981-1015, May.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
- Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
- Hassapis, Christis & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2002. "Investigating the links between growth and real stock price changes with empirical evidence from the G-7 economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 543-575.
- Ilhan Meric & Gulser Meric, 1997. "Co-Movements of European Equity Markets Before and After the 1987 Crash," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(2), pages 137-152, June.
- Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November.
- Rangvid, Jesper, 2001. "Increasing convergence among European stock markets?: A recursive common stochastic trends analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 383-389, June.
- Anthony Aylward & Jack Glen, 2000. "Some international evidence on stock prices as leading indicators of economic activity," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How important are fundamentals?--Evidence from a structural VAR model for the stock markets in the US, Japan and Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 185-201, April.
- Gallegati, Marco, 2008. "Wavelet analysis of stock returns and aggregate economic activity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3061-3074, February.
- Ülkü, Numan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Kuzmicheva, Olga, 2017. "Stock market's response to real output shocks in Eastern European frontier markets: A VARwAL model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 140-154.
- Komain Jiranyakul, 2013.
"The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand,"
Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 317-328.
- Jiranyakul, Komain, 2012. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," MPRA Paper 45670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
- Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Growth-returns nexus: Evidence from three Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-355.
- Nikolaos Giannellis & Angelos Kanas & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2010.
"Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers between Stock Market and Real Activity: Evidence from the UK and the US,"
Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(4), pages 429-445, December.
- Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos & Angelos Kanas, 2008. "Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers Î’etween Stock Market and Real Activity: Evidence from UK and US," Working Papers 0807, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
- Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2021. "A tale of tails : New evidence on the growth-return nexus," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
- Nicholas Apergis & Panagiotis G. Artikis, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Risk, Equity Risk Factors and Economic Growth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 425-445, December.
- Johann Burgstaller, 2002. "Are stock returns a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments?," Economics working papers 2002-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Jin Guo, 2015. "Causal relationship between stock returns and real economic growth in the pre- and post-crisis period: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 12-31, January.
- Ozlem Goktas & Aycan Hepsag, 2011. "Do stock returns lead real economic activity? Evidence from seasonal cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2117-2127.
- Aviral K. Tiwari & Claudiu T. Albulescu & Rangan Gupta, 2016.
"Time-frequency relationship between US output with commodity and asset prices,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 227-242, January.
- Aviral K. Tiwari & Claudiu T. Albulescu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Time-Frequency Relationship between U.S. Output with Commodity and Asset Prices," Working Papers 201523, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Nikolaos Giannellis & Angelos Kanas & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2010.
"Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers between Stock Market and Real Activity: Evidence from the UK and the US,"
Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(4), pages 429-445.
- Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos & Angelos Kanas, 2008. "Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers Î’etween Stock Market and Real Activity: Evidence from UK and US," Working Papers 0807, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: a cointegration approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 229-245.
- Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Dene Hurley & Román Ferrer, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Fresh evidence using the quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3569-3587, July.
- Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2010.
"Looking far in the past: revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 743-766, June.
- Ekaterini Panopoulou & N. Pittis & S. Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past:Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1660306, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
- Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Looking far in the past: Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp134, IIIS.
- Numan Ülkü & Kexing Wu, 2023. "Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks in China: A VARwAL Estimation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(5), pages 1-25, September.
- R. Gopinathan & S. Raja Sethu Durai, 2019. "Stock market and macroeconomic variables: new evidence from India," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, December.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:44:y:2004:i:2:p:237-252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.