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The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy Evidence From the Stock Market

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  • Matthew D. Shapiro

Abstract

Until recently, economists widely believed that economic activity had become less variable in the United States following the end of World War II. Challenging this belief, new research suggests that key historical time series are spuriously volatile, a finding that is highly controversial. Data from the stock market may provide a vehicle for resolving the controversy. Economic theory relates stock prices to real activity; empirical tests also show a strong link between stock prices and activity. Financial data are accurately measured over long spans of time and hence are free of most of the measurement problems in other time series. Measures of stock prices show no stabilization in the post-World War II period relative to the pre-World War I or pre-Depression periods. These stock market data thus support the hypothesis that real activity has not been stabilized.

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  • Matthew D. Shapiro, 1988. "The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy Evidence From the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2645
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    Cited by:

    1. Asaf Bernstein & Eric Hughson & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2008. "Can a Lender of Last Resort Stabilize Financial Markets? Lessons from the Founding of the Fed," NBER Working Papers 14422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Willem THORBECKE, 2018. "The Impact of Oil Prices on East and Southeast Asian Economies: Evidence from financial markets," Discussion papers 18043, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Peter Blair Henry, 2001. "Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?," NBER Working Papers 8289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules, comments," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Indexes Of United States Stock Prices From 1802-1987," Papers 89-04, Rochester, Business - General.
    6. ODUSOLA, Ayodele & AKINLO, Anthony, 2001. "Output, Inflation, And Exchange Rate In Developing Countries: An Application To Nigeria," UNDP Africa Economists Working Papers 307343, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    7. Cochran, Steven J. & DeFina, Robert H., 1996. "Predictability in real exchange rates: Evidence from parametric hazard models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 125-147.
    8. Willem Thorbecke, 2021. "The weak rupiah: catching the tailwinds and avoiding the shoals," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(3), pages 521-539, December.
    9. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
    10. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
    11. Bernstein, Asaf & Hughson, Eric & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2010. "Identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets: Lessons from the founding of the fed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 40-53, October.
    12. Schlote, Klaus Wilhelm, 1989. "Zu den Einflußfaktoren am deutschen Aktienmarkt bei festen und flexiblen Wechselkursen," Kiel Working Papers 363, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 237-252, May.
    14. Thorbecke, Willem, 2019. "How oil prices affect East and Southeast Asian economies: Evidence from financial markets and implications for energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 628-638.
    15. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2009. "Do foreign purchases of U.S. stocks help the U.S. stock market?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 969-986, December.

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