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Some international evidence on stock prices as leading indicators of economic activity

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  • Anthony Aylward
  • Jack Glen

Abstract

Most asset pricing theories suggest that asset prices are forward looking and reflect market expectations of future earnings. By aggregating across companies, aggregate market prices may then be used as leading indicators of future growth in aggregate income, as well as its constituent components. Data are compiled from 23 countries, including 15 developing countries, in order to examine the ability of stock market prices to predict future economic growth in income, consumption and investment. It is found that stock prices generally have predictive ability, but with substantial variation across countries. Moreover, stocks are substantially better leading indicators of investment than either GDP or consumption. Despite their value as leading indicators, however, stock prices do not generally increase forecasting ability as measured by root mean squared error in out-of-sample forecasting equations.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Aylward & Jack Glen, 2000. "Some international evidence on stock prices as leading indicators of economic activity," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:10:y:2000:i:1:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1080/096031000331879
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    Cited by:

    1. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Morita, Hiroshi, 2022. "Forecasting GDP growth using stock returns in Japan: A factor-augmented MIDAS approach," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-118, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Komain Jiranyakul, 2013. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 317-328.
    4. Nicholas Apergis & Panagiotis G. Artikis, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Risk, Equity Risk Factors and Economic Growth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 425-445, December.
    5. Kim Hiang Liow & James R. Webb, 2009. "Common factors in international securitized real estate markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 80-89, April.
    6. Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Growth-returns nexus: Evidence from three Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-355.
    7. Yaser Abolghasemi & Stanko Dimitrov, 2021. "Determining the causality between U.S. presidential prediction markets and global financial markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4534-4556, July.
    8. Ferreira, José & Gama, Ana, 2020. "The Relationship Between The Factors Of Risk In Asset Evaluation Models And Future Economic Growth: Evidence From Three Regional Markets," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 8(4), pages 300-319.
    9. Shada Almuwallad, 0000. "Exploring the Dynamics: Granger Causality Between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Prices Before and After the 2008 Financial Crisis: Evidence From The FTSE All-Share Index," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 14416316, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    10. Mohsen Mehrara, 2007. "The Relationship between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables: a Case Study for Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 12(1), pages 51-62, winter.
    11. Si, Deng-Kui & Liu, Xi-Hua & Kong, Xianli, 2019. "The comovement and causality between stock market cycle and business cycle in China: Evidence from a wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 17-30.
    12. repec:eut:journl:v:11:y:2006:i:3:p:137 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Aditya Prasad Sahoo, 2021. "Macro-Economic Variables and Stock Market: are they Co-integrated? - A Study on NSE India," ComFin Research, Shanlax Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 25-30, April.
    14. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2012. "Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Securitized Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 319-338, April.
    15. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 237-252, May.
    16. Jin Guo, 2015. "Causal relationship between stock returns and real economic growth in the pre- and post-crisis period: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 12-31, January.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Emmanouil Karakostas, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of the Stock Market Index Performance: The Case of DAX Index," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 21-38.
    19. Tomáš Plíhal, 2016. "Granger Causality between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Germany," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(6), pages 2101-2108.
    20. Yuan-Ming Lee & Kuan-Min Wang & T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2008. "A Common-Use Proxy for Economic Performance: Application to Asymmetric Causality between the Stock Returns and Growth," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(2), pages 101-124, August.
    21. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    22. José Clemente Jacinto Ferreira & Ana Paula Matias Gama & Luiz Paulo Fávero & Ricardo Goulart Serra & Patrícia Belfiore & Igor Pinheiro de Araújo Costa & Marcos dos Santos, 2022. "Economic Performance and Stock Market Integration in BRICS and G7 Countries: An Application with Quantile Panel Data and Random Coefficients Modeling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-35, October.

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