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Does a Cointegrating M2 Demand Relation Really Exist in the United States?

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  • Miyao, Ryuzo

Abstract

This paper reexamines evidence on M2 demand cointegration in the postwar United States. Equilibrium relations between M2 and various sets of its determinants are analyzed using quarterly observations from 1959:1 to 1988:4, 1990:4, and 1993:4 based on three different testing methods. For earlier subsamples, mixed results are obtained suggesting both cointegration and no cointegration. For the full sample, however, virtually no evidence supports cointegration. Accordingly, a M2 error-correction model is no longer appropriate to investigate short-run dynamics of business fluctuations in the 1990s. Copyright 1996 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Miyao, Ryuzo, 1996. "Does a Cointegrating M2 Demand Relation Really Exist in the United States?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 365-380, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:28:y:1996:i:3:p:365-80
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahking, Francis W., 2002. "Model mis-specification and Johansen's co-integration analysis: an application to the US money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 51-66, March.
    2. Elger, Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Nilsson, Birger, 2006. "Forecasting with Monetary Aggregates: Recent Evidence for the United States," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 428-446.
    3. Dieter Nautz & Karsten Ruth, 2008. "Monetary disequilibria and the euro/dollar exchange rate," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 701-716.
    4. Martin B. Schmidt, 2004. "Exogeneity within the M2 Demand Function: Evidence from a Large Macroeconomic System," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 634-646, October.
    5. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
    6. Inagaki, Kazuyuki, 2021. "How are the international capital flows of rapidly aging countries affected by the elderly working longer?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 285-297.
    7. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João, 2003. "Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies? A literature review," Working Paper Series 261, European Central Bank.
    8. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    9. Yosuke Takeda & Atsuko Ueda, 2006. "Uncovering the Goodhart's Law: Theory and Evidence," 2006 Meeting Papers 162, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Claude Hillinger & Bernd Süssmuth & Marco Sunder, 2015. "The Quantity Theory of Money: Valid Only for High and Medium Inflation?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 61(4), pages 315-329.
    11. Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.
    12. Sophie Altermatt, 2018. "The Long-Run Demand for M2 Reconsidered," Diskussionsschriften dp1824, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    13. Schmidt, Martin B., 2001. "The long and short of money and prices: a market equilibrium approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 563-583.
    14. Ivo J. M. Arnold & Sebastian Roelands, 2011. "Housing Wealth And U.S. Money Demand: A Panel Estimation," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 382-391, July.
    15. Inagaki, Kazuyuki, 2009. "Estimating the interest rate semi-elasticity of the demand for money in low interest rate environments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 147-154, January.
    16. Zhan, Minghua & Wang, Lijun & Zhan, Shuwei & Lu, Yao, 2023. "Does digital finance change the stability of money demand function? Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Rapach, David E., 1998. "Macro Shocks and Fluctuations," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 23-38, January.
    18. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 237-252, May.
    19. Martin Schmidt, 2007. "The long and short of money: short-run dynamics within a structural model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 175-192.
    20. Nagayasu, Jun, 2003. "A re-examination of the Japanese money demand function and structural shifts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 359-375, June.
    21. Rapach, David E., 2002. "The long-run relationship between inflation and real stock prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, September.
    22. Daiki Maki & Shin-ichi Kitasaka, 2006. "The equilibrium relationship among money, income, prices, and interest rates: evidence from a threshold cointegration test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(13), pages 1585-1592.
    23. Fujiki, H., 1999. "Japanese money demand: evidence from regional monthly data1," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 375-393, October.

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