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Governments manipulate official Statistics: Institutions matter

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  • Briviba, Andre
  • Frey, Bruno
  • Moser, Louis
  • Bieri, Sandro

Abstract

Many governments have been reported to systematically manipulate official statistics. However, scholarly research has not extensively dealt with the determinants of data manipulation, beyond the effect of autocracy. We extend the literature by including institutional factors hypothetically affecting data manipulation. Regressing the gap between GDP – predicted by night-time lighting data – and „official“ GDP on these institutional factors suggests that economic openness and democracy decrease manipulation, while decentralization increases manipulation. Political openness decreases manipulation for countries under-reporting GDP and increases manipulation for countries over-reporting GDP. Surprisingly, no effects are found for press freedom and the independence of the statistical office.

Suggested Citation

  • Briviba, Andre & Frey, Bruno & Moser, Louis & Bieri, Sandro, 2024. "Governments manipulate official Statistics: Institutions matter," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:82:y:2024:i:c:s0176268024000259
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102523
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data manipulation; Official statistics; Political economy; Government; Institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • P44 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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