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Data misreporting during the COVID19 crisis: The role of political institutions

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  • Adam, Antonis
  • Tsarsitalidou, Sofia

Abstract

We use Benford’s law of first digits to determine whether there is evidence of data misreporting in the total COVID19 reported cases across countries. We try to model the differences in the Mean Absolute Deviation of actual data from those predicted by Benford’s law to indicate the factors that lead to data misreporting using regression analysis. Using the Instrumental Variable model of Lewbel (2012) and Settler Mortality as an external instrument for democracy, we show that autocratic countries are more likely to misreport the COVID19 cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, Antonis & Tsarsitalidou, Sofia, 2022. "Data misreporting during the COVID19 crisis: The role of political institutions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:213:y:2022:i:c:s016517652200043x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110348
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arthur Lewbel, 2012. "Using Heteroscedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 67-80.
    2. Karabulut, Gokhan & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin, 2021. "Democracy and COVID-19 outcomes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Koch, Christoffer & Okamura, Ken, 2020. "Benford’s Law and COVID-19 reporting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    5. Christian Bjørnskov & Martin Rode, 2020. "Regime types and regime change: A new dataset on democracy, coups, and political institutions," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 531-551, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Parrendah Adwoa Kpeli & Günther G. Schulze & Nikita Zakharov, 2024. "Elections and (mis)reporting of COVID-19 mortality," Discussion Paper Series 48 JEL Classification: D7, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Apr 2024.
    2. Briviba, Andre & Frey, Bruno & Moser, Louis & Bieri, Sandro, 2024. "Governments manipulate official Statistics: Institutions matter," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Democracy; Data misreporting; COVID19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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