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Truth or Dare? Detecting Systematic Manipulation of COVID-19 Statistics

Author

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  • Adiguzel, Fatih Serkant
  • Cansunar, Asli
  • Corekcioglu, Gozde

Abstract

Which countries manipulate COVID-19 statistics? Does the party ideology of local governors affect the probability of data manipulation at subnational levels? How does democratic quality affect statistical transparency during the pandemic? In this article, we apply election fraud detection methods — various digit-based tests that exploit human biases in generating random numbers — to the daily announced official numbers of new and cumulative coronavirus infections. First, we use digit-based tests to identify countries that likely manipulated their pandemic statistics. We then move on to examine the empirical relationship between democratic quality and data transparency. We find suggestive evidence that data manipulation occurred in China, the United States, Russia, and Turkey. Second, we show that non-democracies, as well as countries without free and fair elections, are more likely to release data that display signs of statistical malpractice.

Suggested Citation

  • Adiguzel, Fatih Serkant & Cansunar, Asli & Corekcioglu, Gozde, 2020. "Truth or Dare? Detecting Systematic Manipulation of COVID-19 Statistics," Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, now publishers, vol. 1(4), pages 543-557, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jnlpip:113.00000021
    DOI: 10.1561/112.00000021
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaba, Mustafa & Koyuncu, Murat & Schneider, Sebastian O. & Sutter, Matthias, 2024. "Social norms, political polarization, and vaccination attitudes: Evidence from a survey experiment in Turkey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Nadia Yusuf & Lamia Saud Shesha, 2021. "Economic Role of Population Density during Pandemics—A Comparative Analysis of Saudi Arabia and China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa A., 2024. "Are most journalists killed in democracies?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Transformations of Democracy SP V 2024-501, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    4. Briviba, Andre & Frey, Bruno & Moser, Louis & Bieri, Sandro, 2024. "Governments manipulate official Statistics: Institutions matter," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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