State-dependent multi-agent discrete event simulation for urban rail transit passenger flow

Urban rail transit passenger flow modeling is the foundation of urban rail transit planning, design, and operation. The motivation of this paper is to accurately and efficiently simulate passenger flow dynamics in urban rail transit systems. To this end, we propose a State-dependent Multi-agent Discrete Event Simulation (SdMaDES). The state-dependence (or congestion-dependence) means that the service abilities (or travel times) of bottleneck facilities (e.g. platform screen doors and transfer corridors) are not constant and they interact with the congestion dynamics. Specifically, we first establish a modular Multi-agent Discrete Event Simulation (MaDES), which includes four types of modules (passenger, train, station, and network modules) and three types of agents (passenger, train, and station agents). The logical connections and event-triggering modes between the modules are analyzed and defined, and thirty types of events are designed. The state-dependence is then captured by an Improved Social Force Model (ISFM), which adds an autonomous obstacle avoidance mechanism. The ISFM reproduces passenger movement behavior within bottleneck facilities of urban rail transit systems at the microscopic level. These state-dependent functions or general rules are explicitly formulated by fitting the results of ISFM and are subsequently applied to the proposed MaDES model, resulting in the SdMaDES. This integration aims to enhance the accuracy of the simulation. We conducted a real case from the Chengdu Metro network. Some interesting results are found. (a) The maximum number of boarding passengers in a train carriage is a complex nonlinear function that is dependent on the state (density inside the train carriage). This challenges the linear function commonly utilized in most studies. (b) Compared to the actual data, the proposed SdMaDES model shows a cumulative error of 9.85% after data smoothing, while the conventional MaDES model exhibits a much higher cumulative error of 21.9% after data smoothing. (c) As the overall traffic demand level increases, the gap between the two simulation models’ results is getting wider and wider due to the amplified nonlinear impact of congestion.