IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v630y2023ics0378437123008300.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interval prediction of vessel trajectory based on lower and upper bound estimation and attention-modified LSTM with bayesian optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Yukuan
  • Liu, Jingxian
  • Liu, Ryan Wen
  • Wu, Weihuang
  • Liu, Yang

Abstract

Uncertainty prediction of vessel trajectory is essential to enhance maritime situational awareness and traffic safety. Traditional approaches for trajectory prediction face challenges in accurately quantifying uncertainties, thereby limiting effectiveness in decision-making. To address this challenge, we propose a hybrid interval prediction frame of vessel trajectory using the lower and upper bound estimation (LUBE) and attention-modified long short-term memory (LSTM) network with bayesian optimization (BO). Firstly, trajectory data is preprocessed to solve the scale irregularity. Then, a novel trajectory interval prediction model for perceiving the prediction uncertainties is designed based on an advanced attention-modified LSTM with interval prediction capability. Meanwhile, a supervised training strategy with differentiating the interval widths of latitude and longitude is put forward to devise sample labels for training the model. Additionally, a new prediction interval-based objective function is proposed considering the target of maximizing coverage and minimizing width of trajectory interval. The BO algorithm optimizes the weighted parameters in the LSTM network by minimizing the objective function value. Finally, cases from two water areas are implemented to test and verify the proposed method. The results illustrate the superiority of the proposed approach in (1) outperforming other methods used for comparison in both coverage probability and width criteria of prediction interval. (2) quantifying the prediction uncertainty and improving the reliability of trajectory predictor. (3) performing anomaly detection tasks using visualized trajectory prediction intervals. The research can help maritime traffic participants obtain more reliable trajectory data, which supports making more reasonable traffic supervision decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yukuan & Liu, Jingxian & Liu, Ryan Wen & Wu, Weihuang & Liu, Yang, 2023. "Interval prediction of vessel trajectory based on lower and upper bound estimation and attention-modified LSTM with bayesian optimization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:630:y:2023:i:c:s0378437123008300
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2023.129275
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437123008300
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2023.129275?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhao, Jiansen & Lu, Jinquan & Chen, Xinqiang & Yan, Zhongwei & Yan, Ying & Sun, Yang, 2022. "High-fidelity data supported ship trajectory prediction via an ensemble machine learning framework," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 586(C).
    2. Dong Yang & Lingxiao Wu & Shuaian Wang & Haiying Jia & Kevin X. Li, 2019. "How big data enriches maritime research – a critical review of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data applications," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 755-773, November.
    3. Li, Qinyin & Cheng, Rongjun & Ge, Hongxia, 2023. "Short-term vehicle speed prediction based on BiLSTM-GRU model considering driver heterogeneity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 610(C).
    4. Markus Reichstein & Gustau Camps-Valls & Bjorn Stevens & Martin Jung & Joachim Denzler & Nuno Carvalhais & Prabhat, 2019. "Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7743), pages 195-204, February.
    5. Zhao, Jiansen & Yan, Zhongwei & Chen, Xinqiang & Han, Bing & Wu, Shubo & Ke, Ranxuan, 2022. "k-GCN-LSTM: A k-hop Graph Convolutional Network and Long–Short-Term Memory for ship speed prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 606(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Licheng Liu & Wang Zhou & Kaiyu Guan & Bin Peng & Shaoming Xu & Jinyun Tang & Qing Zhu & Jessica Till & Xiaowei Jia & Chongya Jiang & Sheng Wang & Ziqi Qin & Hui Kong & Robert Grant & Symon Mezbahuddi, 2024. "Knowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Rozenstein, Offer & Fine, Lior & Malachy, Nitzan & Richard, Antoine & Pradalier, Cedric & Tanny, Josef, 2023. "Data-driven estimation of actual evapotranspiration to support irrigation management: Testing two novel methods based on an unoccupied aerial vehicle and an artificial neural network," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Huang, Guanghui & Yao, Ling & Qin, Jun & Liu, Hengzi, 2020. "Spatial scale effects on retrieval accuracy of surface solar radiation using satellite data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    4. Wen Zhang & Jing Li & Yunhao Chen & Yang Li, 2019. "A Surrogate-Based Optimization Design and Uncertainty Analysis for Urban Flood Mitigation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4201-4214, September.
    5. Feng, Jiaojiao & Wang, Weizhen & Xu, Feinan & Wang, Shengtang, 2024. "Evaluating the ability of deep learning on actual daily evapotranspiration estimation over the heterogeneous surfaces," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    6. Yang, Dong & Liao, Shiguan & Venus Lun, Y.H & Bai, Xiwen, 2023. "Towards sustainable port management: Data-driven global container ports turnover rate assessment," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    7. Zhao, Jiansen & Yan, Zhongwei & Chen, Xinqiang & Han, Bing & Wu, Shubo & Ke, Ranxuan, 2022. "k-GCN-LSTM: A k-hop Graph Convolutional Network and Long–Short-Term Memory for ship speed prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 606(C).
    8. Shao, Feng & Shao, Hu & Wang, Dongle & Lam, William H.K., 2024. "A multi-task spatio-temporal generative adversarial network for prediction of travel time reliability in peak hour periods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 638(C).
    9. Mohanad A. Deif & Ahmed A. A. Solyman & Mohammed H. Alsharif & Seungwon Jung & Eenjun Hwang, 2021. "A Hybrid Multi-Objective Optimizer-Based SVM Model for Enhancing Numerical Weather Prediction: A Study for the Seoul Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Zhang, Shuangyi & Li, Xichen, 2021. "Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    11. Zheng, Shiyuan & Jiang, Changmin, 2024. "Consortium blockchain in Shipping: Impacts on industry and social welfare," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    12. Florian Reiner & Martin Brandt & Xiaoye Tong & David Skole & Ankit Kariryaa & Philippe Ciais & Andrew Davies & Pierre Hiernaux & Jérôme Chave & Maurice Mugabowindekwe & Christian Igel & Stefan Oehmcke, 2023. "More than one quarter of Africa’s tree cover is found outside areas previously classified as forest," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    13. Sugrue, Dennis & Adriaens, Peter, 2021. "A data fusion approach to predict shipping efficiency for bulk carriers," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    14. Gianluca Biggi & Martina Iori & Julia Mazzei & Andrea Mina, 2024. "Green Intelligence: The AI content of green technologies," LEM Papers Series 2024/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    15. Li, Yiliang & Bai, Xiwen & Wang, Qi & Ma, Zhongjun, 2022. "A big data approach to cargo type prediction and its implications for oil trade estimation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    16. Kei Kanamoto & Liwen Murong & Minato Nakashima & Ryuichi Shibasaki, 2021. "Can maritime big data be applied to shipping industry analysis? Focussing on commodities and vessel sizes of dry bulk carriers," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 211-236, June.
    17. Ahmadhon Akbarkhonovich Kamolov & Suhyun Park, 2021. "Prediction of Depth of Seawater Using Fuzzy C-Means Clustering Algorithm of Crowdsourced SONAR Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    18. He, Xinlei & Liu, Shaomin & Xu, Tongren & Yu, Kailiang & Gentine, Pierre & Zhang, Zhe & Xu, Ziwei & Jiao, Dandan & Wu, Dongxing, 2022. "Improving predictions of evapotranspiration by integrating multi-source observations and land surface model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    19. Wang, Yangjun & Liu, Kefeng & Zhang, Ren & Qian, Longxia & Shan, Yulong, 2021. "Feasibility of the Northeast Passage: The role of vessel speed, route planning, and icebreaking assistance determined by sea-ice conditions for the container shipping market during 2020–2030," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    20. Richards, Daniel Rex & Lavorel, Sandra, 2022. "Integrating social media data and machine learning to analyse scenarios of landscape appreciation," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:630:y:2023:i:c:s0378437123008300. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.