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Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil

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  • Moura, N.J.
  • Ribeiro, Marcelo B.

Abstract

This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwin’s (1967) macroeconomic model of growth with cycles by assuming that the individual income distribution of the Brazilian society is described by the Gompertz–Pareto distribution (GPD). This is formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelming majority of the population (∼99%), with the Pareto power law, representing the tiny richest part (∼1%). In line with Goodwin’s original model, we identify the Gompertzian part with the workers and the Paretian component with the class of capitalists. Since the GPD parameters are obtained for each year and the Goodwin macroeconomics is a time evolving model, we use previously determined, and further extended here, Brazilian GPD parameters, as well as unemployment data, to study the time evolution of these quantities in Brazil from 1981 to 2009 by means of the Goodwin dynamics. This is done in the original Goodwin model and an extension advanced by Desai et al. (2006). As far as Brazilian data is concerned, our results show partial qualitative and quantitative agreement with both models in the studied time period, although the original one provides better data fit. Nevertheless, both models fall short of a good empirical agreement as they predict single center cycles which were not found in the data. We discuss the specific points where the Goodwin dynamics must be improved in order to provide a more realistic representation of the dynamics of economic systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Moura, N.J. & Ribeiro, Marcelo B., 2013. "Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2088-2103.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:9:p:2088-2103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.01.024
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    Cited by:

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    2. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Moreira, Helmar Nunes, 2019. "Some new insights on the empirics of Goodwin's growth-cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 42-54.
    3. Nikolaos Rodousakis, 2016. "Testing Goodwin’s Growth Cycle Disaggregated Models: Evidence from the Input-Output Tables of the Greek Economy for the years 1988-1997," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 10(2), pages 99-118, December.
    4. Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2014. "Unemployment, income distribution and debt-financed investment in a growth cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 325-348.
    5. Soares, Abner D. & Moura Jr., Newton J. & Ribeiro, Marcelo B., 2016. "Tsallis statistics in the income distribution of Brazil," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 158-171.
    6. Kerim Eser Afc{s}ar & Mehmet Ozyi~git & Yusuf Yuksel & Umit Ak{i}nc{i}, 2021. "Testing the Goodwin Growth Cycles with Econophysics Approach in 2002-2019 Period in Turkey," Papers 2106.02546, arXiv.org.
    7. Kang, Sang Hoon & Lahmiri, Salim & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2020. "Inflation cycle synchronization in ASEAN countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    8. Florent McIsaac, 2021. "Testing Goodwin with a stochastic differential approach—The United States (1948–2019)," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 696-730, November.
    9. Plushchevskaya, Y., 2017. "A Basic Neomarxist Model of Economic Fluctuations," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 53-69.
    10. Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides & Theodore Mariolis, 2014. "An endogenous Goodwin--Keynes business cycle model: evidence for Germany (1991--2007)," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 481-486, May.
    11. Matheus R. Grasselli & Aditya Maheshwari, 2018. "Testing a Goodwin model with general capital accumulation rate," Papers 1803.01536, arXiv.org.

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