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Unemployment, income distribution and debt-financed investment in a growth cycle model

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  • Sordi, Serena
  • Vercelli, Alessandro

Abstract

As recent experience suggests, the most significant economic fluctuations are those that combine real and financial factors. This paper works out a simple model that couples a version of Goodwin׳s (1967) growth cycle model of real fluctuations with insights drawn from a model of financial fluctuations based on Minsky׳s financial instability hypothesis (Vercelli, 2000; Sordi and Vercelli, 2006, 2012). The model suggested substantially modifies that of Keen (1995), who combined insights from Goodwin and Minsky within a model of fluctuating growth. In the real part of the modelwe introduce the possibility of disequilibrium in the goods market and formalize a mechanism of output adjustment based on the conventional dynamic multiplier. The model so obtained may exhibit persistent dynamics and provide insights to enable better understanding of the nature of real-world fluctuations.

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  • Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2014. "Unemployment, income distribution and debt-financed investment in a growth cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 325-348.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:48:y:2014:i:c:p:325-348
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.09.030
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    Cited by:

    1. Serena Sordi & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2020. "Investment behaviour and “bull & bear” dynamics: modelling real and stock market interactions," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(4), pages 867-897, October.
    2. Giuseppe Orlando & Mario Sportelli, 2021. "Growth and Cycles as a Struggle: Lotka–Volterra, Goodwin and Phillips," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Giuseppe Orlando & Alexander N. Pisarchik & Ruedi Stoop (ed.), Nonlinearities in Economics, chapter 0, pages 191-208, Springer.
    3. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Moreira, Helmar Nunes, 2019. "Some new insights on the empirics of Goodwin's growth-cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 42-54.
    4. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-02012724 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Distributive cycles and endogenous technical change in a BoPC growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-233.
    6. Alessia Cafferata & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "(Ir)rational explorers in the financial jungle," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1157-1188, September.
    7. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Maria Nikolaidi & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2017. "Minsky Models: A Structured Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1304-1331, December.
    8. Yannis Dafermos, 2018. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley–Minsky synthesis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1277-1313.
    9. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Arnim, Rudiger von, 2021. "Endogenous fluctuations in demand and distribution: An empirical investigation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 204-220.
    10. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2019. "Coupling cycle mechanisms: Minsky debt cycles and the multiplier-accelerator," Working Papers PKWP1904, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    11. Cajas Guijarro, John, 2024. "Two Dynamic Models of Distributive and Financial Endogenous Cycles," MPRA Paper 121404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Maria Nikolaidi, 2017. "Three decades of modelling Minsky: what we have learned and the way forward," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 222-237, September.
    13. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley-Minsky model," Working Papers 20151509, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    14. Marwil Jhonatan Dávila Fernádez & José Luis Oreiro, 2016. "Capital In The Twenty First Century: Reinterpretando A Contradição Fundamental Do Capitalismo," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 096, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Marwil J Dávila-Fernández & Jose Luis Oreiro, 2023. "Competitiveness and dynamic cumulative causation in an export-led growing economy," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 522-550.
    16. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil & Oreiro, José, 2021. "A song of ice and fire: Competitiveness in an export-led growing economy," MPRA Paper 109821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Daniele Tavani & Luca Zamparelli, 2020. "Growth, income distribution, and the ‘entrepreneurial state’," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 117-141, January.
    18. Plushchevskaya, Y., 2017. "A Basic Neomarxist Model of Economic Fluctuations," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 53-69.
    19. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    20. Grassetti, F. & Guzowska, M. & Michetti, E., 2020. "A dynamically consistent discretization method for Goodwin model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    21. Reiner Franke, 2017. "What output-capital ratio to adopt for macroeconomic calibrations?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 208-224, March.
    22. Murakami, Hiroki & Zimka, Rudolf, 2020. "On dynamics in a two-sector Keynesian model of business cycles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    23. Alessia Cafferata & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2020. "(Ir)rational explorers in the financial jungle: modelling Minsky with heterogeneous agents," Department of Economics University of Siena 819, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    24. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Lionello F. Punzo, 2018. "A Multi-Sectoral Approach to Financialisation," Department of Economics University of Siena 794, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth cycle; Goods market disequilibrium; Goodwin; Minsky; Financial instability; Real/financial interaction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory

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