IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v392y2013i8p1795-1802.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intraday volatility spillovers between spot and futures indices: Evidence from the Korean stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Kang, Sang Hoon
  • Cheong, Chongcheul
  • Yoon, Seong-Min

Abstract

This study provides empirical evidence of the relationship between spot and futures markets in Korea. In particular, the study focuses on the volatility spillover relationship between spot and futures markets by using three high-frequency (10 min, 30 min, and 1 h time-scales) intraday data sets of KOSPI 200 spot and futures contracts. The results indicate a strong bi-directional causal relationship between futures and spot markets, suggesting that return volatility in the spot market can influence that in the futures market and vice versa. Thus, the results indicate that new information is reflected in futures and spot markets simultaneously. This bi-directional causal relationship provides market participants with important guidance on understanding the intraday information transmission between the two markets. Thus, on a given trading day, there may be sudden and sharp increases or decreases in return volatility in the Korean stock market as a result of positive feedback and synchronization of spot and futures markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Kang, Sang Hoon & Cheong, Chongcheul & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2013. "Intraday volatility spillovers between spot and futures indices: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1795-1802.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:8:p:1795-1802
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.01.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437113000319
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2013.01.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Ilias D. Visvikis & Panayotis D. Alexakis, 2008. "The Lead‐Lag Relationship Between Cash and Stock Index Futures in a New Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1007-1025, November.
    3. Daly, Kevin, 2008. "Financial volatility: Issues and measuring techniques," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(11), pages 2377-2393.
    4. Mantegna,Rosario N. & Stanley,H. Eugene, 2007. "Introduction to Econophysics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521039871, September.
    5. Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2011. "Detrended fluctuation analysis on spot and futures markets of West Texas Intermediate crude oil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(5), pages 864-875.
    6. Okyu Kwon & Jae-Suk Yang, 2008. "Information flow between stock indices," Papers 0802.1747, arXiv.org.
    7. Podobnik, Boris & Fu, Dongfeng & Jagric, Timotej & Grosse, Ivo & Eugene Stanley, H., 2006. "Fractionally integrated process for transition economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 362(2), pages 465-470.
    8. Liu, Li & Wan, Jieqiu, 2011. "A study of correlations between crude oil spot and futures markets: A rolling sample test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3754-3766.
    9. Tastan, Hüseyin, 2006. "Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 445-458.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. B. Podobnik & I. Grosse & D. Horvatić & S. Ilic & P. Ch. Ivanov & H. E. Stanley, 2009. "Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(2), pages 243-250, September.
    12. Bertram, William K, 2004. "An empirical investigation of Australian Stock Exchange data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 341(C), pages 533-546.
    13. Ching-Chung Lin & Shen-Yuan Chen & Dar-Yeh Hwang & Chien-Fu Lin, 2002. "Does Index Futures Dominate Index Spot? Evidence from Taiwan Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 255-275.
    14. Lee, Ming-Chih & Chiu, Chien-Liang & Lee, Yen-Hsien, 2007. "Is twin behavior of Nikkei 225 index futures the same?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(1), pages 199-210.
    15. Chan, Kalok & Chan, K C & Karolyi, G Andrew, 1991. "Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 657-684.
    16. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    17. Kasman, Adnan & Kasman, Saadet, 2008. "The impact of futures trading on volatility of the underlying asset in the Turkish stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2837-2845.
    18. Sergio Arianos & Anna Carbone, 2008. "Cross-correlation of long-range correlated series," Papers 0804.2064, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2009.
    19. Bertram, William K., 2005. "A threshold model for Australian Stock Exchange equities," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(3), pages 561-576.
    20. Xu, Zhaoxia & Gençay, Ramazan, 2003. "Scaling, self-similarity and multifractality in FX markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 323(C), pages 578-590.
    21. Owain Ap Gwilym & Mike Buckle, 2001. "The lead-lag relationship between the FTSE100 stock index and its derivative contracts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 385-393.
    22. Chiang, Thomas C. & Yu, Hai-Chin & Wu, Ming-Chya, 2009. "Statistical properties, dynamic conditional correlation and scaling analysis: Evidence from Dow Jones and Nasdaq high-frequency data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1555-1570.
    23. Podobnik, Boris & Ivanov, Plamen Ch. & Grosse, Ivo & Matia, Kaushik & Eugene Stanley, H., 2004. "ARCH–GARCH approaches to modeling high-frequency financial data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 216-220.
    24. Kang, Sang Hoon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2008. "Long memory features in the high frequency data of the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(21), pages 5189-5196.
    25. Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-152.
    26. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 441-468, December.
    27. Liu, Xiangli & Cheng, Siwei & Wang, Shouyang & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Yi, 2008. "An empirical study on information spillover effects between the Chinese copper futures market and spot market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(4), pages 899-914.
    28. Stanley, H. Eugene & Plerou, Vasiliki & Gabaix, Xavier, 2008. "A statistical physics view of financial fluctuations: Evidence for scaling and universality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3967-3981.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khalfaoui, Rabeh, 2018. "Oil–gold time varying nexus: A time–frequency analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 86-104.
    2. Baumöhl, Eduard & Kočenda, Evžen & Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš, 2018. "Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1555-1574.
    3. Liu, Xueyong & An, Haizhong & Huang, Shupei & Wen, Shaobo, 2017. "The evolution of spillover effects between oil and stock markets across multi-scales using a wavelet-based GARCH–BEKK model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 374-383.
    4. Jing Hao & Xiong Xiong & Feng He & Feng Ma, 2019. "Price Discovery in the Chinese Stock Index Futures Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(13), pages 2982-2996, October.
    5. Fu Qiao & Yan Yan, 2020. "A Demand-Oriented Industry-Specific Volatility Spillover Network Analysis of China’s Stock Market around the Outbreak of COVID-19," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(11), pages 1321-1341, November.
    6. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Forecasting the KOSPI200 spot volatility using various volatility measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 156-166.
    7. Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat & Azhar Mohamad & Kevin Reinaldo Amin, 2021. "Intertemporal price discovery between stock index futures and spot markets: New evidence from high‐frequency data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 898-913, January.
    8. Mensi, Walid & Nekhili, Ramzi & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Oil and precious metals: Volatility transmission, hedging, and safe haven analysis from the Asian crisis to the COVID-19 crisis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 73-96.
    9. Fu Qiao & Yan Yan, 2020. "How does stock market reflect the change in economic demand? A study on the industry-specific volatility spillover networks of China's stock market during the outbreak of COVID-19," Papers 2007.07487, arXiv.org.
    10. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah, 2017. "Modeling the spillovers between stock market and money market in Nigeria," Working Papers 023, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    11. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Wu, Dongmei, 2020. "Spatial connectedness of volatility spillovers in G20 stock markets: Based on block models analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    12. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin, 2014. "Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 247-253.
    13. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Konstantatos, Christoforos & Floros, Christos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2021. "Realized volatility spillovers between US spot and futures during ECB news: Evidence from the European sovereign debt crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Liwei Jin & Xianghui Yuan & Jun Long & Xiang Li & Feng Lian, 2022. "Price discovery in the CSI 300 Index derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1352-1368, July.
    15. Shao, Ying-Hui & Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Time-varying lead–lag structure between the crude oil spot and futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 723-733.
    16. Tingting Cao & Weiqing Sun & Cuiping Sun & Lin Hao, 2022. "Unique futures in China: studys on volatility spillover effects of ferrous metal futures," Papers 2206.15039, arXiv.org.
    17. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Lu, Yang, 2020. "Spatial spillover effects and risk contagion around G20 stock markets based on volatility network," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    18. Liu, Xueyong & An, Haizhong & Li, Huajiao & Chen, Zhihua & Feng, Sida & Wen, Shaobo, 2017. "Features of spillover networks in international financial markets: Evidence from the G20 countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 265-278.
    19. Huo, Rui & Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2018. "Relationships between Chinese stock market and its index futures market: Evaluating the impact of QFII scheme," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 135-152.
    20. Abounoori, Esmaiel & Tour, Mansour, 2019. "Stock market interactions among Iran, USA, Turkey, and UAE," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 297-305.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang Hou & Steven Li, 2013. "Price Discovery in Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: New Evidence Based on Intraday Data," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(1), pages 49-70, March.
    2. Jing Hao & Xiong Xiong & Feng He & Feng Ma, 2019. "Price Discovery in the Chinese Stock Index Futures Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(13), pages 2982-2996, October.
    3. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Hall, John H. & du Toit, Elda, 2021. "The lead–lag relationship between spot and futures prices: Empirical evidence from the Indian commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Nam, Seung Oh & Oh, SeungYoung & Kim, Hyun Kyung & Kim, Byung Chun, 2006. "An empirical analysis of the price discovery and the pricing bias in the KOSPI 200 stock index derivatives markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 398-414.
    5. Mohammed Arshad Khan & Md. Mobashshir Hussain & Asif Pervez & Mohd Atif & Rohit Bansal & Hamad A. Alhumoudi & Miaochao Chen, 2022. "Intraday Price Discovery between Spot and Futures Markets of NIFTY 50: An Empirical Study during the Times of COVID-19," Journal of Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-9, August.
    6. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong, 2014. "Cross-correlations between spot and futures markets of nonferrous metals," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 400(C), pages 20-30.
    7. Huo, Rui & Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2018. "Relationships between Chinese stock market and its index futures market: Evaluating the impact of QFII scheme," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 135-152.
    8. Mustafa Okur & Emrah Cevik, 2013. "Testing Intraday Volatility Spillovers in Turkish Capital Markets: Evidence from Ise," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 99-116, January.
    9. Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2011. "Detrended fluctuation analysis on spot and futures markets of West Texas Intermediate crude oil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(5), pages 864-875.
    10. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cheong, Chongcheul & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2010. "Long memory volatility in Chinese stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(7), pages 1425-1433.
    11. Ghazani, Majid Mirzaee & Khosravi, Reza, 2020. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis on benchmark cryptocurrencies and crude oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    12. Hou, Yang & Nartea, Gilbert, 2017. "Price Discovery in the Stock Index Futures Market: Evidence from the Chinese stock market crash," MPRA Paper 81995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hung-Gay Fung, 1997. "Information Flows Between Eurodollar Spot and Futures Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 255-271, December.
    14. Scalia, Antonio, 1998. "Information transmission and causality in the Italian Treasury bond market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 361-384, October.
    15. Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang & Yang, Dongxiao, 2017. "Role of index futures on China's stock markets: Evidence from price discovery and volatility spillover," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 13-26.
    16. İşcanoğlu-Çekiç, Ayşegül & Gülteki̇n, Havva, 2019. "Are cross-correlations between Turkish Stock Exchange and three major country indices multifractal or monofractal?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 978-990.
    17. Lee, Ming-Chih & Chiu, Chien-Liang & Lee, Yen-Hsien, 2007. "Is twin behavior of Nikkei 225 index futures the same?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(1), pages 199-210.
    18. Wang, Dong-Hua & Yu, Xiao-Wen & Suo, Yuan-Yuan, 2012. "Statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(12), pages 3503-3512.
    19. Lepone, Andrew & Yang, Jin Young, 2013. "Informational role of market makers: The case of exchange traded CFDs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 84-92.
    20. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi, 2013. "Cross-correlations between Renminbi and four major currencies in the Renminbi currency basket," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1418-1428.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:8:p:1795-1802. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.