IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v44y2018icp135-152.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relationships between Chinese stock market and its index futures market: Evaluating the impact of QFII scheme

Author

Listed:
  • Huo, Rui
  • Ahmed, Abdullahi D.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) on the dynamic relationship between the Chinese stock index futures and spot markets. The research uses high frequency data (5min interval) and various dynamic methods including VECM, GJR, BEKK and DCC GARCH models to evaluate price discovery and volatility spillover effect. The data used is from 01/02/2011 to 29/07/2011, which includes 3 months before and after the implementation of the QFII scheme to trade in the Chinese stock index futures market. We find a bi-directional asymmetric lead-lag relationship between the Chinese stock index futures and spot markets, indicating a significant lead from the futures market to the spot market but weak lead from the spot market to the futures market in terms of both magnitude and lasting time. It is observed that the introduction of the QFII has enhanced the price discovery role of the futures market and increased the predictive power of the futures market. Our empirical results show that the Chinese stock index futures market has become less volatile (risky) and probably more efficient after the introduction of QFII. We find that foreign institutional investors could enhance the volatility spillover effect from the futures market to the spot market, indicating an improvement in information transmission running from the futures to spot markets. Our results suggest that Chinese government should continue opening its financial markets to the world. The dynamic conditional correlation between the futures and spot markets decreases and becomes more volatile after the introduction of QFII. This indicates that the futures and spot markets become less correlated after the QFII event which may have major influence on hedging strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Huo, Rui & Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2018. "Relationships between Chinese stock market and its index futures market: Evaluating the impact of QFII scheme," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 135-152.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:135-152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.049
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531916303506
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.049?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Puttonen, Vesa, 1993. "Stock index futures arbitrage in Finland: Theory and evidence in a new market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 304-317, August.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Ilias D. Visvikis & Panayotis D. Alexakis, 2008. "The Lead‐Lag Relationship Between Cash and Stock Index Futures in a New Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1007-1025, November.
    4. Jian Yang & Zihui Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2012. "Intraday price discovery and volatility transmission in stock index and stock index futures markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 99-121, February.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Pratap Chandra Pati & Prabina Rajib, 2011. "Intraday return dynamics and volatility spillovers between NSE S&P CNX Nifty stock index and stock index futures," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 567-574.
    8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    9. Yi-Tsung Lee & Wei-Shao Wu & Yun Yang, 2013. "Informed Futures Trading and Price Discovery: Evidence from Taiwan Futures and Stock Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(3), pages 219-242, September.
    10. Haiqiang Chen & Qian Han & Yingxing Li & Kai Wu, 2013. "Does Index Futures Trading Reduce Volatility in the Chinese Stock Market? A Panel Data Evaluation Approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(12), pages 1167-1190, December.
    11. Wen-Hsiu Kuo & Hsinan Hsu & Min-Hsien Chiang, 2008. "Foreign investment, regulation, volatility spillovers between the futures and spot markets: evidence from Taiwan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 421-430.
    12. repec:wyi:journl:002169 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. YEO, Steven, 2003. "The PRC Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors Market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 443-450.
    14. Chan, Kalok & Chan, K C & Karolyi, G Andrew, 1991. "Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 657-684.
    15. Hongyi Chen & Lars Jonung & Olaf Unteroberdoerster, 2014. "Lessons for China from Financial Liberalization in Scandinavia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 13(1), pages 1-44, Winter.
    16. Abhay H. Abhyankar, 1995. "Return and volatility dynamics in the FT‐SE 100 stock index and stock index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 457-488, June.
    17. Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the DJIA index and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(8), pages 911-930, December.
    18. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    19. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2014. "The impact of the CSI 300 stock index futures: Positive feedback trading and autocorrelation of stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 319-337.
    20. Zhong, Maosen & Darrat, Ali F. & Otero, Rafael, 2004. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3037-3054, December.
    21. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    22. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    23. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cheong, Chongcheul & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2013. "Intraday volatility spillovers between spot and futures indices: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1795-1802.
    24. Yang Hou & Steven Li, 2013. "Price Discovery in Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: New Evidence Based on Intraday Data," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(1), pages 49-70, March.
    25. Fergusson, Michael J. & McGuinness, Paul B., 2004. "Chinese securities reform: The role of QFII in the corporate governance process," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 53-61.
    26. Tao, Juan & Green, Christopher J., 2012. "Asymmetries, causality and correlation between FTSE100 spot and futures: A DCC-TGARCH-M analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-37.
    27. Libin Tao & Frank M. Song, 2010. "Do small traders contribute to price discovery? Evidence from the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 156-174, February.
    28. Mahmoud Wahab & Malek Lashgari, 1993. "Price dynamics and error correction in stock index and stock index futures markets: A cointegration approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 711-742, October.
    29. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    30. Jaehun CHOI & Hosung LIM & Rogelio Jr. MERCADO & Cyn-Young PARK, 2015. "Price Discovery and Foreign Participation in Korea's Government Bond Cash and Futures Markets," Working Papers 2015-8, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    31. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:77-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 441-468, December.
    33. Chang, Chuang-Chang & Hsieh, Pei-Fang & Lai, Hung-Neng, 2009. "Do informed option investors predict stock returns? Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 757-764, April.
    34. Gregory Koutmos & Michael Tucker, 1996. "Temporal relationships and dynamic interactions between spot and futures stock markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 55-69, February.
    35. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    36. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    37. Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
    38. Kawaller, Ira G & Koch, Paul D & Koch, Timothy W, 1987. "The Temporal Price Relationship between S&P 500 Futures and the S and P 500 Index," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(5), pages 1309-1329, December.
    39. Siu-Kai Choy & Hua Zhang, 2010. "Trading costs and price discovery," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 37-57, January.
    40. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    41. Martin T. Bohl & Christian A. Salm & Michael Schuppli, 2011. "Price discovery and investor structure in stock index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 282-306, March.
    42. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1996. "Trading costs and the relative rates of price discovery in stock, futures, and option markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 353-387, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bai, Yizhou & Xue, Cheng, 2021. "An empirical study on the regulated Chinese agricultural commodity futures market based on skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Mansi Jain & Gagan Deep Sharma & Mrinalini Srivastava, 2019. "Can Sustainable Investment Yield Better Financial Returns: A Comparative Study of ESG Indices and MSCI Indices," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, February.
    3. He, Lerong & Huang, Liying & Fang, Liting, 2022. "Institutional conditions, economic policy uncertainty and foreign institutional investment in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Ramiz ur Rehman & Muhammad Zain ul Abidin & Rizwan Ali & Safwan Mohd Nor & Muhammad Akram Naseem & Mudassar Hasan & Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, 2021. "The Integration of Conventional Equity Indices with Environmental, Social, and Governance Indices: Evidence from Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-27, January.
    5. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2022. "Spillovers and interdependency across base metals: Evidence from China's futures and spot markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hou, Yang (Greg) & Li, Steven, 2020. "Volatility and skewness spillover between stock index and stock index futures markets during a crash period: New evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 166-188.
    2. Hou, Yang & Nartea, Gilbert, 2017. "Price Discovery in the Stock Index Futures Market: Evidence from the Chinese stock market crash," MPRA Paper 81995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2016. "Information transmission between U.S. and China index futures markets: An asymmetric DCC GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 884-897.
    4. Tao, Juan & Green, Christopher J., 2012. "Asymmetries, causality and correlation between FTSE100 spot and futures: A DCC-TGARCH-M analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-37.
    5. Fassas, Athanasios P. & Papadamou, Stephanos & Koulis, Alexandros, 2020. "Price discovery in bitcoin futures," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Shuxin Guo, 2021. "Do futures lead the index under stress? Evidence from the 2015 Chinese market turmoil and its aftermath," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 91-110, January.
    7. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas, 2016. "Dynamic spillover effects in futures markets: UK and US evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 406-418.
    8. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Time-varying volatility spillover between Chinese fuel oil and stock index futures markets based on a DCC-GARCH model with a semi-nonparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-143.
    9. Sanjay Sehgal & Mala Dutt, 2016. "Domestic and international information linkages between NSE Nifty spot and futures markets: an empirical study for India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 43(3), pages 239-258, September.
    10. Minho Kim & Andrew C. Szakmary & Thomas V. Schwarz, 1999. "Trading costs and price discovery across stock index futures and cash markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 475-498, June.
    11. Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang & Yang, Dongxiao, 2017. "Role of index futures on China's stock markets: Evidence from price discovery and volatility spillover," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 13-26.
    12. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    13. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2014. "The impact of the CSI 300 stock index futures: Positive feedback trading and autocorrelation of stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 319-337.
    14. Jing Hao & Xiong Xiong & Feng He & Feng Ma, 2019. "Price Discovery in the Chinese Stock Index Futures Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(13), pages 2982-2996, October.
    15. Sogiakas, Vasilios & Karathanassis, George, 2015. "Informational efficiency and spurious spillover effects between spot and derivatives markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 46-72.
    16. Christopher Krauss & Klaus Herrmann, 2017. "On the Power and Size Properties of Cointegration Tests in the Light of High-Frequency Stylized Facts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, February.
    17. Qingfeng “Wilson” Liu & Hui Sono & Wei Zhang, 2021. "The Price Discovery Processes in China, India, and Russia’s Stock Index Futures Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(03), pages 1-28, September.
    18. Yang Hou & Steven Li, 2013. "Price Discovery in Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: New Evidence Based on Intraday Data," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(1), pages 49-70, March.
    19. Qiang Liu & Gaoxiu Qiao, 2017. "The evolving nature of intraday price discovery in the Chinese CSI 300 index futures market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1569-1585, June.
    20. Xiaojie Xu, 2018. "Cointegration and price discovery in US corn cash and futures markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1889-1923, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Index futures market; Volatility spillover; Multivariate GARCH model; Return;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:135-152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.