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Modernising operational risk management in financial institutions via data-driven causal factors analysis: A pre-registered report

Author

Listed:
  • Cornwell, Nikki
  • Bilson, Christopher
  • Gepp, Adrian
  • Stern, Steven
  • Vanstone, Bruce J.

Abstract

To enable more proactive management of the underlying sources of operational risks in financial institutions, this pre-registered study seeks to improve traditional qualitative approaches to causal factors analysis. A Bayesian network-based approach is used to leverage both incident and operations data to model the probability of operational loss events. The approach is applied and empirically tested in a case study on an Australian insurance company. The outputs from the model go beyond simply identifying key risk drivers to offer risk managers a deeper understanding of how causal factors influence risk. Insights into the collective effects of causal factors, their relative importance and critical thresholds strategically inform more efficient and effective mitigation decisions, ultimately enhancing firm performance and value.

Suggested Citation

  • Cornwell, Nikki & Bilson, Christopher & Gepp, Adrian & Stern, Steven & Vanstone, Bruce J., 2023. "Modernising operational risk management in financial institutions via data-driven causal factors analysis: A pre-registered report," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:77:y:2023:i:c:s0927538x22002013
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101906
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Cornwell, Nikki & Bilson, Christopher & Gepp, Adrian & Stern, Steven & Vanstone, Bruce J., 2023. "Modernising operational risk management in financial institutions via data-driven causal factors analysis: A pre-registered study," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Duncan, Keith & Gepp, Adrian & Craig, Justin & O'Neill, Helen, 2023. "Research ideas matter: Guidance for research students and early career researchers," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk management; Operational risk; Data analytics; Firm value; Financial institutions; Insurance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory

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