IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v68y2021ics0927538x21000627.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Firm-level perception of uncertainty and innovation activity: Textual evidence from China's A-share market

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Zhen
  • Xiao, Yao
  • Li, Jinpo

Abstract

This study evaluates the firm-level perception of uncertainty using a textual analysis approach. Based on the annual reports of China's listed firms, we construct the perception of uncertainty from the management team and examine its impact on innovation activity. We find that managers' interpretations of the environment will affect their innovation incentives, and uncertainty leads to a decrease in the number of patent filings. The results are robust when we adopt an instrumental variable approach and apply alternative measures of variables. This study quantifies firms' perception of uncertainty and provides micro evidence for the correlation between uncertainty and innovation activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Zhen & Xiao, Yao & Li, Jinpo, 2021. "Firm-level perception of uncertainty and innovation activity: Textual evidence from China's A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0927538x21000627
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101555
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X21000627
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101555?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Tian, Xuan & Xu, Yan, 2017. "What Affects Innovation More: Policy or Policy Uncertainty?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 1869-1901, October.
    2. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2018. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1374-1443.
    4. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    5. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    6. Wen Ming & Zhengqing Zhou & Hongshan Ai & Huimin Bi & Yuan Zhong, 2020. "COVID-19 and Air Quality: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2422-2442, August.
    7. Xin Gu & Shan Ying & Weiqiang Zhang & Yewei Tao, 2020. "How Do Firms Respond to COVID-19? First Evidence from Suzhou, China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2181-2197, August.
    8. Coad, Alex & Rao, Rekha, 2008. "Innovation and firm growth in high-tech sectors: A quantile regression approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 633-648, May.
    9. Dirk Czarnitzki & Andrew A. Toole, 2011. "Patent Protection, Market Uncertainty, and R&D Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 147-159, February.
    10. Paul T E Cusack, 2020. "On Pain," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 31(3), pages 24253-24254, October.
    11. Li, Yunhe & Liu, Yu & Xie, Feixue, 2019. "Technology directors and firm innovation," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 76-88.
    12. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    13. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    14. Liu, Qing & Qiu, Larry D., 2016. "Intermediate input imports and innovations: Evidence from Chinese firms' patent filings," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 166-183.
    15. An, Heng & Chen, Yanyan & Luo, Danglun & Zhang, Ting, 2016. "Political uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 174-189.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    17. Rita Gunther McGrath & Atul Nerkar, 2004. "Real options reasoning and a new look at the R&D investment strategies of pharmaceutical firms," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 1-21, January.
    18. Raffaele Oriani & Maurizio Sobrero, 2008. "Uncertainty and the market valuation of R&D within a real options logic," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 343-361, April.
    19. Dirk Czarnitzki & Andrew A. Toole, 2013. "The R&D Investment–Uncertainty Relationship: Do Strategic Rivalry and Firm Size Matter?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 15-28, January.
    20. Li, Haoran & Wan, Xibo & Zhang, Wendong, 2020. "How do Firms Respond to Political Tensions? Evidence from Chinese Food Importers," ISU General Staff Papers 202011250800001118, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    21. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    22. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    23. Robert Audi & Tim Loughran & Bill McDonald, 2016. "Trust, but Verify: MD&A Language and the Role of Trust in Corporate Culture," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 551-561, December.
    24. Zhenyu Jiang & Zongjun Wang & Yanqi Zeng, 2020. "Can voluntary environmental regulation promote corporate technological innovation?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 390-406, February.
    25. He, Feng & Ma, Yaming & Zhang, Xiaojie, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate Innovation?–Evidence from China listed companies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 225-239.
    26. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
    27. Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Nie, Jun & Ran, Rong & Gu, Yuan, 2020. "Corporate social responsibility, social identity, and innovation performance in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    28. Yan, Yumeng & Xiong, Xiong & Meng, J. Ginger & Zou, Gaofeng, 2019. "Uncertainty and IPO initial returns: Evidence from the Tone Analysis of China’s IPO Prospectuses," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    29. Zhang, Yahua & Zhang, Anming & Wang, Jiaoe, 2020. "Exploring the roles of high-speed train, air and coach services in the spread of COVID-19 in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 34-42.
    30. repec:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:1:p:23-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Nalin Kulatilaka & Enrico C. Perotti, 1998. "Strategic Growth Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1021-1031, August.
    32. Cheung Kui-yin & Lin, Ping, 2004. "Spillover effects of FDI on innovation in China: Evidence from the provincial data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 25-44.
    33. Zhen Yu & Yao Xiao & Yuankun Li, 2020. "The Response of the Labor Force Participation Rate to an Epidemic: Evidence from a Cross-Country Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2390-2407, August.
    34. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    35. Angela K. Davis & Isho Tama†Sweet, 2012. "Managers’ Use of Language Across Alternative Disclosure Outlets: Earnings Press Releases versus MD&A," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 804-837, September.
    36. Juhro, Solikin M. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Trisnanto, Budi, 2020. "Is there a role for Islamic finance and R&D in endogenous growth models in the case of Indonesia?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    37. Jin, Peizhen & Peng, Chong & Song, Malin, 2019. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, high-level innovation, and urban green development performance in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-18.
    38. Liu, Qing & Ma, Hong, 2020. "Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Firm level evidence from China’s WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    39. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2002. "Patents, Real Options and Firm Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 97-116, March.
    40. Zhang, Wei, 2015. "R&D investment and distress risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 94-114.
    41. Vo, Lai Van & Le, Huong Thi Thu, 2017. "Strategic growth option, uncertainty, and R&D investment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 16-24.
    42. Jiang, Xiandeng & Kong, Dongming & Xiao, Chengrui, 2020. "Policy certainty and heterogeneous firm innovation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    43. Hou, Qingsong & Hu, May & Yuan, Yuan, 2017. "Corporate innovation and political connections in Chinese listed firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA), pages 158-176.
    44. Xu, Zhaoxia, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty, cost of capital, and corporate innovation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xia, Xiaoxue & Xiao, Yao, 2023. "Firm-level perception of competition and innovation: Textual evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Yu, Zhen & Shen, Yiran & Jiang, Shengjun, 2022. "The effects of corporate governance uncertainty on state-owned enterprises' green innovation in China: Perspective from the participation of non-state-owned shareholders," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Wang, Bin & Wang, Liang & Gong, Bairong & Yan, Zhengwei & Hu, Pan, 2023. "Does broadband internet infrastructure mitigate firm-level economic policy uncertainty? Evidence from the Broadband China Pilot Policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    4. Chada, Swechha, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainties and institutional ownership in India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    5. He, Chao & Li, Yanxi & Zhu, Jiawei, 2022. "The effect of firm-level perception of uncertainty on innovation: Evidence from China’s listed firms," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suyi Zheng & Jiandong Wen, 2023. "How Does Firm-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Corporate Innovation? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Guan, Jialin & Xu, Huijuan & Huo, Da & Hua, Yechun & Wang, Yunfeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Liao, Jing & Fang, Zhenming & Cheng, Feiyang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and corporate innovation investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Yu, Zhen & Xiao, Yao & Li, Jinpo, 2021. "How does geopolitical uncertainty affect Chinese overseas investment in the energy sector? Evidence from the South China Sea Dispute," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. He, Chao & Li, Yanxi & Zhu, Jiawei, 2022. "The effect of firm-level perception of uncertainty on innovation: Evidence from China’s listed firms," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    6. Cao, Yang & Chen, Yinghui & Zhang, Yuhe, 2022. "Political uncertainty, innovation-driven strategy, and corporate R&D," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Lin, Yongjia & Fu, Xiaoqing & Fu, Xiaolan, 2021. "Varieties in state capitalism and corporate innovation: Evidence from an emerging economy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Chen, Yinghui, 2021. "Does political turnover stifle or stimulate corporate innovation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1126-1145.
    9. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    10. Nguyen, Minh Hong & Trinh, Vu Quang, 2023. "U.K. economic policy uncertainty and innovation activities: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    11. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Aziz, Saqib & El-Khatib, Rwan & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and dividend payout," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Feng, Gen-Fu & Zheng, Mingbo, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and renewable energy innovation: International evidence," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 1(2).
    13. Arif Khan, Muhammad & Qin, Xuezhi & Jebran, Khalil & Ullah, Irfan, 2020. "Uncertainty and R&D investment: Does product market competition matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    15. Lou, Zhukun & Chen, Siyu & Yin, Wenwei & Zhang, Chuan & Yu, Xiaoyu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm innovation: Evidence from a risk-taking perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 78-96.
    16. Ji (George) Wu & Jian Zhang & Yiwen Wu & Dongmin Kong, 2020. "When to go abroad: economic policy uncertainty and Chinese firms’ overseas investment," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1435-1470, June.
    17. Pertuze, Julio A. & Reyes, Tomas & Vassolo, Roberto S. & Olivares, Nicolas, 2019. "Political uncertainty and innovation: The relative effects of national leaders’ education levels and regime systems on firm-level patent applications," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
    18. Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Sensoy, Ahmet & Liao, Jing & Xie, Xiaochen, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and green innovation: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    20. Jia, Shaoqing & Yang, Liuyong & Zhou, Fangzhao, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0927538x21000627. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.