IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v57y2019ics0927538x18302397.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty and IPO initial returns: Evidence from the Tone Analysis of China’s IPO Prospectuses

Author

Listed:
  • Yan, Yumeng
  • Xiong, Xiong
  • Meng, J. Ginger
  • Zou, Gaofeng

Abstract

IPO prospectuses play an irreplaceable role in the IPO process. The tone of IPO prospectuses, in terms of its definitiveness in characterizing the prospects and assessing the risks of different firms, could affect investors' capability to estimate the firms that are about to go public. In a large sample of 1320 IPO prospectuses of China's A-share market from 2007 to 2016, we find that uncertain or negative tone of IPO prospectuses is significantly associated with IPO initial returns and the post-IPO return volatility. Besides, empirical evidence shows that the negative or uncertain tone in the prospectuses lowers the stocks' long-term returns. Our findings contribute to the literature by investigating the impact of connotative information transmission on stock returns during IPO process, based on which investors can do a better job in risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan, Yumeng & Xiong, Xiong & Meng, J. Ginger & Zou, Gaofeng, 2019. "Uncertainty and IPO initial returns: Evidence from the Tone Analysis of China’s IPO Prospectuses," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:57:y:2019:i:c:s0927538x18302397
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2018.10.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X18302397
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2018.10.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sanjiv R. Das & Mike Y. Chen, 2007. "Yahoo! for Amazon: Sentiment Extraction from Small Talk on the Web," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(9), pages 1375-1388, September.
    2. Thomas Schleicher & Martin Walker, 2010. "Bias in the tone of forward‐looking narratives," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 371-390.
    3. Kathleen Weiss Hanley, 2010. "The Information Content of IPO Prospectuses," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(7), pages 2821-2864, July.
    4. Yong Ye & Lei Huang & Ming Li, 2015. "Negative media coverage, law environment and tunneling of controlling shareholder," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(1), pages 3-18, February.
    5. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Wu, Di, 2013. "Word power: A new approach for content analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 712-729.
    6. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    7. John D. Lyon & Brad M. Barber & Chih‐Ling Tsai, 1999. "Improved Methods for Tests of Long‐Run Abnormal Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 165-201, February.
    8. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. "The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
    9. Feng Li, 2010. "The Information Content of Forward‐Looking Statements in Corporate Filings—A Naïve Bayesian Machine Learning Approach," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 1049-1102, December.
    10. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R., 2000. "Uniformly least powerful tests of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 361-389, March.
    11. Yuandong Xu, 2016. "Aversion of information ambiguity and momentum effect in China’s stock market," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(2), pages 125-149, May.
    12. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1995. "Initial public offerings: International insights," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 139-140, May.
    13. Loughran, Tim & McDonald, Bill, 2013. "IPO first-day returns, offer price revisions, volatility, and form S-1 language," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 307-326.
    14. Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2014. "Textual sentiment in finance: A survey of methods and models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 171-185.
    15. Ibbotson, Roger G., 1975. "Price performance of common stock new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 235-272, September.
    16. Hughes, Patricia J & Thakor, Anjan V, 1992. "Litigation Risk, Intermediation, and the Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 709-742.
    17. Mario Levis, 1993. "The Long-Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings: The UK Experience 1980-1988," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(1), Spring.
    18. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    19. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. "The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    20. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    21. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    22. Hongquan Zhu & Lingling Jiang, 2017. "Investor recognition and stock returns: evidence from China," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(2), pages 199-215, December.
    23. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1259-1294 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Chowdhry, Bhagwan & Sherman, Ann, 1996. "International differences in oversubscription and underpricing of IPOs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 359-381, July.
    25. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Demir, Ender & García-Gómez, Conrado Diego & Díez-Esteban, José María & Farinha, Jorge Bento, 2023. "How does uncertainty impact IPO activity? International evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    2. Ranganathan, Kavitha & Veeraraghavan, Madhu, 2023. "Pre-and-aftermarket IPO underpricing: Does use of proceeds disclosure matter?," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3).
    3. Bian, Shibo & Jia, Dekui & Li, Ruihai & Sun, Wujun & Yan, Zhipeng & Zheng, Yingfei, 2021. "Can management tone predict IPO performance? – Evidence from mandatory online roadshows in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Dong, Dayong & Yang, Mo & Yang, Gaoju & Chen, Chang-Chih & Zhang, Xinyi, 2022. "Talk less and do more: Expected strategic adjustments vs. actual changes in the Chinese firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Yang, Mo & Li, Yan & Dong, Dayong, 2023. "Strategic information disclosure and the cost of equity capital: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Yu, Zhen & Xiao, Yao & Li, Jinpo, 2021. "Firm-level perception of uncertainty and innovation activity: Textual evidence from China's A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Wenbo Ma & Xinjie Wang & Yuan Wang & Ge Wu, 2021. "Measuring misleading information in IPO prospectuses," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 819-843, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cristiana Cardi & Camilla Mazzoli & Sabrina Severini, 2019. "People have the power: post IPO effects of intellectual capital disclosure," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 228-255, April.
    2. Buehlmaier, Matthias M. M. & Zechner, Josef, 2016. "Financial media, price discovery, and merger arbitrage," CFS Working Paper Series 551, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Ingrid E. Fisher & Margaret R. Garnsey & Mark E. Hughes, 2016. "Natural Language Processing in Accounting, Auditing and Finance: A Synthesis of the Literature with a Roadmap for Future Research," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 157-214, July.
    4. Yan Luo & Linying Zhou, 2020. "Textual tone in corporate financial disclosures: a survey of the literature," International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 101-110, September.
    5. Chahine, Salim, 2004. "Long-run abnormal return after IPOs and optimistic analysts' forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103.
    6. Christina Bannier & Thomas Pauls & Andreas Walter, 2019. "Content analysis of business communication: introducing a German dictionary," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(1), pages 79-123, February.
    7. Natalia Matanova & Tanja Steigner & Bingsheng Yi & Qiancheng Zheng, 2019. "Going concern opinions and IPO pricing accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-238, July.
    8. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2016. "Textual Analysis in Accounting and Finance: A Survey," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 1187-1230, September.
    9. Ahmed, Yousry & Elshandidy, Tamer, 2016. "The effect of bidder conservatism on M&A decisions: Text-based evidence from US 10-K filings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 176-190.
    10. Attiya Yasmin Javid & Henna Malik, 2016. "Performance and capital structure of IPOs in Pakistan from 2000 to 2015," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Renato Camodeca & Alex Almici & Umberto Sagliaschi, 2018. "Sustainability Disclosure in Integrated Reporting: Does It Matter to Investors? A Cheap Talk Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-34, November.
    12. Agarwal, Sumit & Liu, Chunlin & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2008. "Investor demand for IPOs and aftermarket performance: Evidence from the Hong Kong stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 176-190, April.
    13. Susana Álvarez & Víctor M. González, 2005. "Signalling and the Long-run Performance of Spanish Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1-2), pages 325-350.
    14. Zhi Da & Ravi Jagannathan & Jianfeng Shen, 2012. "Building Castles in the Air: Evidence from Industry IPO Waves," NBER Working Papers 18555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Zhang Hanbing & Jeffrey E. Jarrett & Xia Pan, 2021. "The Post-IPO Performance in the PRC," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(11), pages 109-109, July.
    16. Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Intraday online investor sentiment and return patterns in the U.S. stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 25-40.
    17. Chouliaras, Andreas, 2015. "High Frequency Newswire Textual Sentiment: Evidence from international stock markets during the European Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 62524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. José Emilio Farinós, 2001. "Rendimientos anormales de las OPV en España," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 25(2), pages 417-437, May.
    19. Deng, Xiaohu & Gao, Lei, 2018. "Annual report "Graphicity" and stock returns," Working Papers 2018-08, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    20. Benson, David F. & Brau, James C. & Cicon, James & Ferris, Stephen P., 2015. "Strategically camouflaged corporate governance in IPOs: Entrepreneurial masking and impression management," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 839-864.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:57:y:2019:i:c:s0927538x18302397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.