IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v60y2020i2p1435-1470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

When to go abroad: economic policy uncertainty and Chinese firms’ overseas investment

Author

Listed:
  • Ji (George) Wu
  • Jian Zhang
  • Yiwen Wu
  • Dongmin Kong

Abstract

We study how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences firms’ overseas investments for Chinese listed companies. We find a significant negative relationship between EPU and firms’ overseas investments after controlling for firm characteristics and macroeconomic variables. Chinese firms seem to reduce their overseas investments on fixed income securities when facing domestic policy uncertainty. The negative relationship is pronounced for financially constrained firms, firms relying on government subsidies and with low overseas revenues, and SOEs. Firms operating in high marketisation regions can mitigate the negative effect of EPU on firms’ overseas investments. Our results remain significant when considering endogeneity problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Ji (George) Wu & Jian Zhang & Yiwen Wu & Dongmin Kong, 2020. "When to go abroad: economic policy uncertainty and Chinese firms’ overseas investment," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1435-1470, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:60:y:2020:i:2:p:1435-1470
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12474
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12474
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.12474?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Tian, Xuan & Xu, Yan, 2017. "What Affects Innovation More: Policy or Policy Uncertainty?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 1869-1901, October.
    2. Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Yaron, Amir, 2015. "Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-397.
    3. repec:bla:rdevec:v:4:y:2000:i:2:p:140-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    5. Xu, Nianhang & Chen, Qinyuan & Xu, Yan & Chan, Kam C., 2016. "Political uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 276-295.
    6. Nakano, Makoto & Nguyen, Pascal, 2012. "Board size and corporate risk-taking: Further evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 38990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    8. Rui Albuquerque & Luis Brandão-Marques & Miguel A Ferreira & Pedro Matos, 2019. "International Corporate Governance Spillovers: Evidence from Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(2), pages 738-770.
    9. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(4), pages 581-593.
    10. Demsetz, Harold, 1973. "Industry Structure, Market Rivalry, and Public Policy," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, April.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    13. Luo, Yadong & Xue, Qiuzhi & Han, Binjie, 2010. "How emerging market governments promote outward FDI: Experience from China," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 68-79, January.
    14. An, Heng & Chen, Yanyan & Luo, Danglun & Zhang, Ting, 2016. "Political uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 174-189.
    15. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    16. Nguyen, Nam H. & Phan, Hieu V., 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 613-644, April.
    17. Lee A. Smales & Henk Berkman, 2016. "The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(2), pages 545-575, June.
    18. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    19. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Sun, Xian, 2009. "Political connections and the process of going public: Evidence from China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 696-719, June.
    20. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    21. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    22. Han, Seungjin & Qiu, Jiaping, 2007. "Corporate precautionary cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 43-57, March.
    23. Stephen Ross Yeaple, 2003. "The Role of Skill Endowments in the Structure of U.S. Outward Foreign Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 726-734, August.
    24. Jian Zhang & Dongmin Kong & Ji Wu, 2018. "Doing Good Business by Hiring Directors with Foreign Experience," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 859-876, December.
    25. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
    26. Toni M. Whited & Guojun Wu, 2006. "Financial Constraints Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 531-559.
    27. Yunhao Dai & Dongmin Kong & Shasha Liu, 2018. "Returnee Talent and Corporate Investment: Evidence from China," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 313-337, March.
    28. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
    29. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Im, Hyun Joong & Park, Heungju & Zhao, Gege, 2017. "Uncertainty and the value of cash holdings," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 43-48.
    31. Lang, Larry & Ofek, Eli & Stulz, Rene M., 1996. "Leverage, investment, and firm growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-29, January.
    32. Herzer, Dierk & Schrooten, Mechthild, 2008. "Outward FDI and domestic investment in two industrialized countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 139-143, April.
    33. Cozza, C. & Rabellotti, R. & Sanfilippo, M., 2015. "The impact of outward FDI on the performance of Chinese firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 42-57.
    34. Huang, Youxing & Zhang, Yan, 2017. "How does outward foreign direct investment enhance firm productivity? A heterogeneous empirical analysis from Chinese manufacturing," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-15.
    35. Nancy Stokey, 2016. "Wait-and See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 246-265, July.
    36. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
    37. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    38. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    39. Jian Chen & Fuwei Jiang & Guoshi Tong, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty in China and stock market expected returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1265-1286, December.
    40. Peter J Buckley & L Jeremy Clegg & Adam R Cross & Xin Liu & Hinrich Voss & Ping Zheng, 2007. "The determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 38(4), pages 499-518, July.
    41. Osnago, Alberto & Piermartini, Roberta & Rocha, Nadia, 2015. "Trade policy uncertainty as barrier to trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2015-05, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Song, Lu & Tian, Gengyu & Jiang, Yonghong, 2022. "Connectedness of commodity, exchange rate and categorical economic policy uncertainties — Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Xiong, Mengxu & Lu, Jiajia & Kong, Dongmin, 2024. "Bilateral conflicts and corporate investment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    3. Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Liao, Jing & Fang, Zhenming & Cheng, Feiyang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and corporate innovation investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Gull, Ammar Ali & Ahsan, Tanveer & Qureshi, Muhammad Azeem & Mushtaq, Rizwan, 2023. "Striving to safeguard shareholders or maintain sustainability in periods of high uncertainty: A multi-country evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    5. Xiao, Zumian & Wang, Shuhan & Zhang, Yepeng & Si, Deng-Kui, 2023. "Power of competition: Unraveling the impact of China's fair competition review system implementation on firm innovation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1561-1581.
    6. Liu, Tao & Guan, Xinyue & Wei, Yigang & Xue, Shan & Xu, Liang, 2023. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on the volatility of China's emission trading scheme pilots," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Xin Cui & Shouyu Yao & Zhenming Fang & Hua Wang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and earnings management: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 3937-3976, September.
    8. Gaurav Gupta, 2022. "CEO’s educational background, economic policy uncertainty and investment-cash flow sensitivity: evidence from India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(5), pages 568-579, January.
    9. Gürel, Burak & Kozluca, Mina, 2022. "Chinese investment in Turkey: the Belt and Road Initiative, rising expectations and ground realities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113841, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Yuan, Tiezhen & Wu, Ji (George) & Qin, Ni & Xu, Jian, 2022. "Being nice to stakeholders: The effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate social responsibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Xi Zhong & Ge Ren & XiaoJie Wu, 2024. "Corporate philanthropy and bribery as distinctive responses to economic policy uncertainty: Do state-owned and private firms differ?," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 641-677, June.
    12. Deng, Wei & Gao, Lei & Xing, Fei & Yang, Ming, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank deposits, and liability structure," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong & Zhang, Hailiang, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate diversification?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 254-269.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sha, Yezhou & Kang, Chenlei & Wang, Zilong, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 590-600.
    2. Chen, Yanyan, 2022. "Does political turnover affect corporate investment? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    3. Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Liao, Jing & Fang, Zhenming & Cheng, Feiyang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and corporate innovation investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Liu, Guanchun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment and financing decisions in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    6. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    7. Ilyas, Muhammad & Khan, Aamir & Nadeem, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks and corporate investment: Evidence from the oil industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    8. Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Aziz, Saqib & El-Khatib, Rwan & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and dividend payout," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Cui, Di & Ding, Mingfa & Han, Yikai & Suardi, Sandy, 2022. "Foreign shareholders, relative foreign policy uncertainty and corporate cash holdings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Long, Shaobo & Pei, Hongxia & Tian, Hao & Li, Fangfang, 2021. "Asymmetric impacts of economic policy uncertainty, capital cost, and raw material cost on China’s investment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 129-144.
    12. Guan, Jialin & Xu, Huijuan & Huo, Da & Hua, Yechun & Wang, Yunfeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Zhao, Yan & Su, Kun, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Yuan, Tiezhen & Wu, Ji (George) & Qin, Ni & Xu, Jian, 2022. "Being nice to stakeholders: The effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate social responsibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Afzali, Mansoor & Ҫolak, Gönül & Fu, Mengchuan, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and corruption: Evidence from public and private firms," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    16. Yang, Zhenyi & Yu, Yiwei & Zhang, Yubing & Zhou, Sili, 2019. "Policy uncertainty exposure and market value: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    17. Zhang, Cheng & Yang, Chunhong & Liu, Cheng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate risk-taking: Loss aversion or opportunity expectations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Caixe, Daniel Ferreira, 2022. "Corporate governance and investment sensitivity to policy uncertainty in Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    19. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Tran, Vuong Thao & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2021. "State-level politics: Do they influence corporate investment decisions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Huang, Ying Sophie & Wu, Jiajia & Guo, Feng, 2022. "Venture capital staging under economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 572-596.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:60:y:2020:i:2:p:1435-1470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.