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Risk contributions of trading and non-trading hours: Evidence from Chinese commodity futures markets

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  • Liu, Qingfu
  • An, Yunbi

Abstract

This paper examines the overall risks in Chinese copper, rubber, and soybean futures markets using a copula-VaR (value at risk) and copula-ES (expected shortfall) framework that explicitly accounts for both trading and non-trading information. Our results show that information accumulating during non-trading hours contributes substantially to overall risks, with non-trading VaR weights exceeding 40% in all these markets. In particular, the information during non-trading hours is more important than the information during trading hours in explaining the total risk of all three futures as measured by ESs and volatility weights. Moreover, the risk due to non-trading information increases with the length of non-trading periods, reflecting the fact that information accumulates continuously over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Qingfu & An, Yunbi, 2014. "Risk contributions of trading and non-trading hours: Evidence from Chinese commodity futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 17-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:17-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2014.07.005
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    Cited by:

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    3. Zhang, Wei & Wang, Pengfei & Li, Yi, 2020. "Intraday momentum in Chinese commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2019. "Night Trading with Futures in China: The Case of Aluminum and Copper," QBS Working Paper Series 2019/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    5. Zhu, Xuehong & Zhang, Hongwei & Zhong, Meirui, 2017. "Volatility forecasting using high frequency data: The role of after-hours information and leverage effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 58-70.
    6. Liu, Qingfu & Tse, Yiuman, 2017. "Overnight returns of stock indexes: Evidence from ETFs and futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 440-451.
    7. Wang, Cheng & Bouri, Elie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2023. "Intraday and overnight tail risks and return predictability in the crude oil market: Evidence from oil-related regular news and extreme shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    8. Xuan Yao & Xiaofeng Hui & Kaican Kang, 2021. "Can night trading sessions improve forecasting performance of gold futures' volatility in China?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 849-860, August.
    9. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2016. "Emerging trends in Asia-Pacific finance research: A review of recent influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 66-76.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk contribution; Value at risk; Expected shortfall; Futures markets; Trading hours; Non-trading hours;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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