IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/chinae/v14y2006i2p79-92.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Efficiency of the Chinese Commodity Futures Markets: Development and Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Xin
  • Gongmeng Chen
  • Michael Firth

Abstract

This study investigates the efficiency of the Chinese metal futures (i. e. copper and aluminum) traded on China's Shanghai Futures Exchange. First, we thoroughly analyze the development of China's commodity futures markets, which provides a fundamental background. Then we examine the random walk and unbiasedness hypotheses for two metal futures during 1999–2004. Based on the empirical evidence, we argue that China's copper and aluminum futures markets are efficient, and that they aid the process of price discovery because futures prices can be considered as unbiased predictors of future spot prices. We attribute this efficiency to the regulatory changes made in 1999 and the increased financial skills and acumen of the participants in the market. Edited by Xiaoming Feng

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Xin & Gongmeng Chen & Michael Firth, 2006. "The Efficiency of the Chinese Commodity Futures Markets: Development and Empirical Evidence," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 79-92, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:14:y:2006:i:2:p:79-92
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2006.00016.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2006.00016.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2006.00016.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    2. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1989. "The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples : A Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-238, February.
    3. Philip Garcia & Raymond M. Leuthold & Hector Zapata, 1986. "Lead‐lag relationships between trading volume and price variability: New evidence," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 1-10, March.
    4. Chun I. Lee & Ike Mathur, 1999. "Efficiency tests in the Spanish futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 59-77, February.
    5. Weiner, Robert J., 2002. "Sheep in wolves' clothing? Speculators and price volatility in petroleum futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 391-400.
    6. Jeffrey Williams & Anne Peck & Albert Park & Scott Rozelle, 1998. "The emergence of a futures market: Mungbeans on the China Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-448, June.
    7. Lee, Chun I. & Gleason, Kimberly C. & Mathur, Ike, 2000. "Efficiency tests in the French derivatives market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 787-807, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brooks, Robert & Brooks, Joshua A., 2022. "Samuelson hypothesis and carry arbitrage: U.S. and China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Sanjay Sehgal & Asheesh Pandey, 2012. "Strategic Allocation, Asset Pricing and Prior Return Patterns: Evidence from Indian Commodity Market," Vision, , vol. 16(4), pages 273-281, December.
    3. Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan & Deschamps, Bruno, 2019. "Professional macroeconomic forecasts and Chinese commodity futures prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 130-136.
    4. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2019. "Night Trading with Futures in China: The Case of Aluminum and Copper," QBS Working Paper Series 2019/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    5. Aruga, Kentaka & Managi, Shunsuke, 2011. "Price linkages in the copper futures, primary, and scrap markets," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 43-47.
    6. Narinder Pal Singh & Archana Singh, 2017. "Empirical Investigation on Food Inflation and Efficiency Issues in Indian Agri-futures Market," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 156-165, November.
    7. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Market efficiency of commodity futures in India," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 522-527, May.
    8. Kumar Ravi & Dhiman Babli, 2022. "Indian and Chinese Metal Futures Markets: A Linkage Analysis," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, September.
    9. Xindan Li & Bing Zhang, 2008. "Price linkages between Chinese and world copper futures markets," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(3), pages 451-461, September.
    10. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2021. "Night trading with futures in China: The case of Aluminum and Copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Liu, Qingfu & Wong, Ieokhou & An, Yunbi & Zhang, Jinqing, 2014. "Asymmetric Information and Volatility Forecasting in Commodity Futures Markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 79-97.
    12. Zhiyong Tu & Min Song & Liang Zhang, 2013. "Emerging Impact of Chinese Commodity Futures Market on Domestic and Global Economy," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(6), pages 79-99, November.
    13. John Hua Fan & Tingxi Zhang, 2020. "The untold story of commodity futures in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 671-706, April.
    14. Guo, Yaoqi & Yao, Shanshan & Cheng, Hui & Zhu, Wensong, 2020. "China's copper futures market efficiency analysis: Based on nonlinear Granger causality and multifractal methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Liu, Qingfu & An, Yunbi, 2014. "Risk contributions of trading and non-trading hours: Evidence from Chinese commodity futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 17-29.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "The random walk hypothesis and the behaviour of foreign capital portfolio flows: the Brazilian stock market case," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 369-378.
    2. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.
    3. Chiang, Shu-Mei & Lee, Yen-Hsien & Su, Hsin-Mei & Tzou, Yi-Pin, 2010. "Efficiency tests of foreign exchange markets for four Asian Countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 284-294, September.
    4. José Carlos Dias & Luís Lopes & Vitor Martins & José Manuel Benzinho, 2004. "Efficiency tests in the Iberian stock markets," Finance 0406001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jian Zhang & Lee W. Sanning & Sherrill Shaffer, 2010. "Market Efficiency Test in the VIX Futures Market," CAMA Working Papers 2010-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. T. Parker Ballinger & Bradley T. Ewing & Mark A. Thompson, 2013. "Rivalry and the dynamic instability of venture capital investment shares," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(12), pages 1150-1154, August.
    7. Pernagallo, Giuseppe & Torrisi, Benedetto, 2020. "Blindfolded monkeys or financial analysts: Who is worth your money? New evidence on informational inefficiencies in the U.S. stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    8. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428.
    9. João A. Bastos & Jorge Caiado, 2014. "Clustering financial time series with variance ratio statistics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2121-2133, December.
    10. Zhong, Meirui & Zhang, Rui & Ren, Xiaohang, 2023. "The time-varying effects of liquidity and market efficiency of the European Union carbon market: Evidence from the TVP-SVAR-SV approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    11. Irina Syssoyeva-Masson & João de Sousa Andrade, 2017. "The Effect of Public Debt on Growth in Multiple Regimes in the Presence of Long-Memory and Non-Stationary Debt Series," CeBER Working Papers 2017-07, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    12. Olimpia Neagu, 2019. "The Link between Economic Complexity and Carbon Emissions in the European Union Countries: A Model Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-27, August.
    13. Anoop S. KUMAR & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Efficiency, non-linearity and chaos: evidences from BRICS foreign exchange markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 103-118, Spring.
    14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    15. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jessica Fouilloux, 2010. "Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis in the EU ETS Markets for the CO2 Emission Allowances: Evidence from Phase I and Phase II," Post-Print hal-00797491, HAL.
    16. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Féliz & Demian Tupac Panigo, 2000. "Raíces unitarias y ciclos en las principales variables macroeconómicas de argentina," IIE, Working Papers 020, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    17. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    18. Yen-Hsien Lee, 2010. "The Impact Of Deregulation On Stock Market Efficiency," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(2), pages 165-176.
    19. Paul Eitelman & Justin Vitanza, 2008. "A non-random walk revisited: short- and long-term memory in asset prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 956, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Shlomo Zilca, 2010. "The variance ratio and trend stationary model as extensions of a constrained autoregressive model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 467-475.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:14:y:2006:i:2:p:79-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwepacn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.