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Cyclical co-movements of private real estate, public real estate and equity markets: A cross-continental spectrum

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  • Devaney, Steven
  • Xiao, Qin

Abstract

Whether returns from investing in real estate shares reflect equity market or real estate market trends is an important question for investors seeking liquid, low cost exposure to real estate. We consider the relationship between real estate shares, private real estate investments and equity markets for five real estate investment locations: Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, UK and US. We utilise spectral and cross-spectral techniques to decompose each time series into cyclical components of differing frequencies. This allows correlations for a range of cyclical components to be analysed. Our results suggest that returns from real estate shares share a number of short frequency cycles with the equity market. Longer cycles are evident in both real estate shares and private real estate returns, but these cycles are not always shared. Hence, real estate shares and private real estate may not always be close substitutes, even over longer horizons, but the relationship varies across our locations.

Suggested Citation

  • Devaney, Steven & Xiao, Qin, 2017. "Cyclical co-movements of private real estate, public real estate and equity markets: A cross-continental spectrum," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 132-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:42-43:y:2017:i::p:132-151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2017.10.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Fetais, Alanoud Hamad & Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Nagayev, Ruslan, 2024. "Navigating the complexities of GCC real state markets: An analysis of interlinkages amidst shocks and oil effects," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real estate; Spectral analysis; Transaction indices; Disaggregated data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • R39 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other

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