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Optimal age- and sex-based management of the queue to ventilators during the Covid-19 crisis

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  • Bonneuil, Noël

Abstract

Triage protocols for intensive care units are based on priorities assigned to presents, but ignore patients about to arrive, so a priority newcomer may not find a ventilator and its associated nursing staff available because they are occupied by a lower-priority patient who however was present at the moment of assignment. Conversely, waiting too long leads to losing elderly patients who could have been saved by ventilators. As age and sex are major determinants of mortality by Covid-19 and have the merit, in contrast to other priority criteria, of being immediately available to health professionals, the criterion is the minimization of the mean mortality rate weighted by age- and sex-specific life expectancies. The dynamics is a queuing process involving mortality and return home flows and competition between ages. The result is the determination of an optimal threshold age that can guide triage.

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  • Bonneuil, Noël, 2021. "Optimal age- and sex-based management of the queue to ventilators during the Covid-19 crisis," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:93:y:2021:i:c:s030440682100032x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102494
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zéphirin Nganmeni & Roland Pongou & Bertrand Tchantcho & Jean‐Baptiste Tondji, 2022. "Vaccine and inclusion," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 1101-1123, October.
      • Zéphirin Nganmeni & Roland Pongou & Bertrand Tchantcho & Jean‐baptiste Tondji, 2022. "Vaccine and inclusion," Post-Print hal-04257703, HAL.
      • Zéphirin Nganmeni & Roland Pongou & Bertrand Tchantcho & Jean-Baptiste Tondji, 2022. "Vaccine and Inclusion," Working Papers 2202E Classification-C62,, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    2. Alexis Roussel & Romain Biard & Marc Deschamps & Mostapha Diss, 2023. "Modeling medical material shortage using Markov processes," Working Papers 2023-04, CRESE.
    3. Raouf Boucekkine & Shankha Chakraborty & Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu, 2024. "A Brief Tour of Economic Epidemiology Modelling," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2024002, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    4. Jacek Rothert, 2021. "Optimal federal transfers during uncoordinated response to a pandemic," GRAPE Working Papers 58, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.

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