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Equilibrium Indeterminacy and Asset Price Fluctuation in Japan: A Bayesian Investigation

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  • YASUO HIROSE

Abstract

This paper investigates sources of asset price fluctuation in Japan using an estimated financial accelerator model. For explicit treatment of expectational beliefs characterized by sunspots, the model is analyzed over the parameter space where the equilibrium can be indeterminate. We show that indeterminacy arises if the financial accelerator effect is sufficiently large. According to our Bayesian estimation results, Japan's economy was affected by sunspot shocks; however, the contribution of the sunspots to asset price volatility was low. Rather, net worth and cost shocks drove the asset price fluctuation. We find, however, that the sunspots substantially affected capital investment. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

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  • Yasuo Hirose, 2008. "Equilibrium Indeterminacy and Asset Price Fluctuation in Japan: A Bayesian Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 967-999, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:5:p:967-999
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    3. Qazi Haque, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target, and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    4. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2015. "Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation," Research Working Paper RWP 15-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012. "Do Investment-Specific Technological Changes Matter For Business Fluctuations? Evidence From Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 208-230, May.
    6. Sohei Kaihatsu & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 224-242, April.
    7. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    8. IIBOSHI Hirokuni, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A DSGE-DFM Approach," ESRI Discussion paper series 292, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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    10. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1637-1671, September.
    11. Fabio Milani, 2012. "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: A Survey," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 3-38, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    12. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Target Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2017-10, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    13. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Matsumae, Tatsuyoshi & Namba, Ryoichi & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2015. "Estimating a DSGE model for Japan in a data-rich environment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 25-55.
    14. Chun-Hung Kuo & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Unemployment and Wage Rigidity in Japan: A DSGE Model Perspective," Working Papers EMS_2016_06, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    15. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 255-274, July.
    16. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 217-235.
    17. Yasuharu Iwata, 2011. "The Government Spending Multiplier and Fiscal Financing: Insights from Japan," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 231-264, June.
    18. Satoshi Hoshino & Daisuke Ida, 2021. "Stock prices and monetary policy in Japan: An analysis of a Bayesian DSGE model," Discussion Papers 2116, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    19. Bruno Coric, 2011. "The financial accelerator effect: concept and challenges," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 171-196.
    20. Iwata, Yasuharu, 2013. "Two fiscal policy puzzles revisited: New evidence and an explanation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 188-207.
    21. McNelis, Paul D. & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2016. "Finding stability in a time of prolonged crisis: Unconventional policy rules for Japan," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 122-136.

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