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Wages, implicit contracts, and the business cycle: Evidence from a European panel

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  • Bellou, Andriana
  • Kaymak, Barış

Abstract

We study the joint behavior of hours and wages over the business cycle in a unique panel of 13 European countries, and document significant history dependence in wages. Workers who experience favorable market conditions during their tenure on the job have higher wages, and work fewer labor hours. Unobserved differences in productivity, such as varying job quality, or match-specific productivity are not likely to explain this variation. The results instead point to the importance of contractual arrangements in wage determination. In economies with decentralized bargaining practices, such arrangements resemble self-enforcing insurance contracts with one-sided commitment (by the employer). On the other hand, in countries with strong unions and centralized wage bargaining, wage behavior is better approximated by full-commitment insurance contracts. The co-movement of hours and wages further confirms a contractual framework with variable worker hours. Despite the strong prevalence of contracts in Europe, however, the elasticity of labor supply is considerably smaller compared to the U.S. labor market.

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  • Bellou, Andriana & Kaymak, Barış, 2012. "Wages, implicit contracts, and the business cycle: Evidence from a European panel," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 898-907.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:19:y:2012:i:6:p:898-907
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2012.08.003
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    2. Alexandros Theloudis & Jorge Velilla & Pierre-André Chiappori & J. Ignacio Gimenéz-Nadal & José Alberto Molina, 2022. "Commitment and the Dynamics of Household Labor Supply," Working Papers 2022-042, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    3. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Robert E. Moore, 2022. "Some Like it Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 193-243, June.
    4. Marco Guerrazzi & Pier Giuseppe Giribone, 2022. "The dynamics of working hours and wages under implicit contracts," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1075-1094, October.
    5. Bauer, Anja & Lochner, Benjamin, 2020. "History dependence in wages and cyclical selection: Evidence from Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Verdugo, Gregory, 2016. "Real wage cyclicality in the Eurozone before and during the Great Recession: Evidence from micro data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 46-69.
    7. Yicheng Wang, 2015. "Can Wage Dynamics in Long-term Employment Relationships Help Mitigate Financial Shocks?," 2015 Meeting Papers 1189, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Anderton, Robert & Maria, José R. & Karšay, Alexander & Szörfi, Béla & Périnet, Mathilde & Petroulas, Pavlos & Beck Nelleman, Peter & Conefrey, Thomas & Veiga, Cindy & Zizza, Roberta & Verdugo, Gregor, 2015. "Comparisons and contrasts of the impact of the crisis on euro area labour markets," Occasional Paper Series 159, European Central Bank.
    9. Mark Bils & Marianna Kudlyak & Paulo Lins, 2023. "The Quality-Adjusted Cyclical Price of Labor," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(S1), pages 13-59.
    10. Claudia M. Buch, 2013. "Has Labor Income Become More Volatile? Evidence from International Industry-Level Data," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(4), pages 399-431, November.
    11. Adamopoulou, Effrosyni & Villanueva, Ernesto, 2022. "Wage determination and the bite of collective contracts in Italy and Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Wage rigidity; Implicit contracts; Labor supply elasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts

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