IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/tjorxx/v70y2019i10p1752-1768.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of wind and solar production on electricity prices: Quantile regression approach

Author

Listed:
  • Linh Phuong Catherine Do
  • Štefan Lyócsa
  • Peter Molnár

Abstract

We study the impact of fuel prices, emission allowances, demand, past prices, wind and solar production on hourly day-ahead electricity prices in Germany over the period from January 2015 until June 2018. Working within a linear regression, ARX-EGARCH and quantile regression framework we compare how different pricing factors influence the mean and quantiles of the electricity prices. Contrary to the existing literature, we find that short-term price fluctuations on the fuel markets and emission allowances have little effect on the electricity prices. We also find that day-of-the-week as well as monthly effects have significant impact on the electricity prices in Germany and should not be ignored in model specifications. Three main factors are found to drive extreme prices: price persistence, expected demand and expected wind production. Our findings contribute to understanding of extreme price movements, which can be used in pricing models and hedging strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Linh Phuong Catherine Do & Štefan Lyócsa & Peter Molnár, 2019. "Impact of wind and solar production on electricity prices: Quantile regression approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(10), pages 1752-1768, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tjorxx:v:70:y:2019:i:10:p:1752-1768
    DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2019.1634783
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01605682.2019.1634783
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01605682.2019.1634783?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ajanaku, Bolarinwa A. & Collins, Alan R., 2024. "“Comparing merit order effects of wind penetration across wholesale electricity markets”," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. John Dorrell & Keunjae Lee, 2021. "The Price of Wind: An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Wind Energy and Electricity Price across the Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Do, Linh Phuong Catherine & Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter, 2021. "Residual electricity demand: An empirical investigation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    4. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2020. "Variable renewable energy technologies in the Turkish electricity market: Quantile regression analysis of the merit-order effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Erik Haugom & Peter Molnár & Magne Tysdahl, 2020. "Determinants of the Forward Premium in the Nord Pool Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:tjorxx:v:70:y:2019:i:10:p:1752-1768. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/tjor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.