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High wind Penetration in an Agent-Based Model of the Electricity Market. The Case of Italy

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  • Eric Guerci
  • Alessandro Sapio

Abstract

In this paper, we build a realistic large-scale agent-based model of the Italian electricity market and run simulations to investigate how a significant increase in wind capacity can affect electricity prices at the national level when the wind resource is geographically concentrated, as in the case of Italy. The simulator implements both cost-based and oligopoly models in which electricity companies learn to bid strategically. We compare a scenario based on the 2010 wind supply and a scenario based on the maximum potential wind capacity as estimated in technical reports. Results confirm the beneficial effect of low-cost renewable energy in reducing average market prices, but simulated power flows in the grid suggest that congestion in the electricity network induced by high wind penetration creates market power opportunities that can offset the price reduction effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Guerci & Alessandro Sapio, 2012. "High wind Penetration in an Agent-Based Model of the Electricity Market. The Case of Italy," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 415-447.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_124_0415
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2020. "Variable renewable energy technologies in the Turkish electricity market: Quantile regression analysis of the merit-order effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Emanuele Ciola & Enrico M. Turco & Massimiliano Rizzati & Davide Bazzana & Sergio Vergalli, 2024. "Taking the green pill: Macro-financial transition risks and policy challenges in the MATRIX model," Working Papers 2024.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. De Siano, Rita & Sapio, Alessandro, 2022. "Spatial merit order effects of renewables in the Italian power exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Sapio, Alessandro & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2020. "The effect of a new power cable on energy prices volatility spillovers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    10. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2012. "Introduction - Improving the Toolbox: New Advances in Agent-Based and Computational Models," Post-Print hal-01053562, HAL.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l564k4686 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l564k4686 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gökgöz, Fazıl & Yücel, Öykü, 2024. "Merit-order of dispatchable and variable renewable energy sources in Turkey's day-ahead electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Sapio, Alessandro & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2016. "Price regimes in an energy island: Tacit collusion vs. cost and network explanations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 157-172.

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