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The Credibility of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism

Author

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  • Knot, Klaas
  • Sturm, Jan-Egbert
  • de Haan, Jakob

Abstract

Using a panel data approach and three different credibility measures, the authors argue that unemployment, inflation, and budget deficits in participating countries have affected the credibility of the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System. In contrast to most previous research, which focuses upon the credibility of exchange rate policies of individual member states, the analysis focuses upon the credibility of the system. The credibility indicators used are short- and long-term interest differentials vis-a-vis Germany and short-term interest differentials which have been adjusted for expected exchange rate movements within the band. Both long-term and error-correction models are estimated. Copyright 1998 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Knot, Klaas & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & de Haan, Jakob, 1998. "The Credibility of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 186-200, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:50:y:1998:i:2:p:186-200
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodríguez López, Mª A., 2002. "Crisis de credibilidad de la peseta en las bandas del SME. Una aplicación del Modelo de Markov con saltos de régimen," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 599-626, Diciembre.
    2. Frömmel, Michael & Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 990-1004.
    3. Bessec, Marie, 2003. "Mean-reversion vs. adjustment to PPP: the two regimes of exchange rate dynamics under the EMS, 1979-1998," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 141-164, January.
    4. Jamshaid ur Rehman & Tasneem Zafar & Shabbir Ahmad & Aftab Anwar, 2022. "In Search of Common Currency Anchor for ASEAN+3+3 Countries," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 237-264, September.

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