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Macro and micro models for zonal crash prediction with application in hot zones identification

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  • Huang, Helai
  • Song, Bo
  • Xu, Pengpeng
  • Zeng, Qiang
  • Lee, Jaeyoung
  • Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

Abstract

Zonal crash prediction has been one of the most prevalent topics in recent traffic safety research. Typically, zonal safety level is evaluated by relating aggregated crash statistics at a certain spatial scale to various macroscopic factors. Another potential solution is from the micro level perspective, in which zonal crash frequency is estimated by summing up the expected crashes of all the road entities located within the zones of interest. This study intended to compare these two types of zonal crash prediction models. The macro-level Bayesian spatial model with conditional autoregressive prior and the micro-level Bayesian spatial joint model were developed and empirically evaluated, respectively. An integrated hot zone identification approach was then proposed to exploit the merits of separate macro and micro screening results. The research was based on a three-year dataset of an urban road network in Hillsborough County, Florida, U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Helai & Song, Bo & Xu, Pengpeng & Zeng, Qiang & Lee, Jaeyoung & Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, 2016. "Macro and micro models for zonal crash prediction with application in hot zones identification," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 248-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:54:y:2016:i:c:p:248-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.06.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Ghadiri, Mehdi & Rassafi, Amir Abbas & Mirbaha, Babak, 2019. "The effects of traffic zoning with regular geometric shapes on the precision of trip production models," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 150-159.
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    6. Hongwen Xia & Rengkui Liu & Wei Zhou & Wenhui Luo, 2024. "Modeling the Causes of Urban Traffic Crashes: Accounting for Spatiotemporal Instability in Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-16, October.
    7. Zeng, Qiang & Wen, Huiying & Huang, Helai & Wang, Jie & Lee, Jinwoo, 2020. "Analysis of crash frequency using a Bayesian underreporting count model with spatial correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    8. Huiying Wen & Xuan Zhang & Qiang Zeng & Jaeyoung Lee & Quan Yuan, 2019. "Investigating Spatial Autocorrelation and Spillover Effects in Freeway Crash-Frequency Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-12, January.
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    10. Xiaoshan Su & Manying Bai, 2020. "Stochastic gradient boosting frequency-severity model of insurance claims," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-24, August.

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