IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v54y2016icp248-256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macro and micro models for zonal crash prediction with application in hot zones identification

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Helai
  • Song, Bo
  • Xu, Pengpeng
  • Zeng, Qiang
  • Lee, Jaeyoung
  • Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

Abstract

Zonal crash prediction has been one of the most prevalent topics in recent traffic safety research. Typically, zonal safety level is evaluated by relating aggregated crash statistics at a certain spatial scale to various macroscopic factors. Another potential solution is from the micro level perspective, in which zonal crash frequency is estimated by summing up the expected crashes of all the road entities located within the zones of interest. This study intended to compare these two types of zonal crash prediction models. The macro-level Bayesian spatial model with conditional autoregressive prior and the micro-level Bayesian spatial joint model were developed and empirically evaluated, respectively. An integrated hot zone identification approach was then proposed to exploit the merits of separate macro and micro screening results. The research was based on a three-year dataset of an urban road network in Hillsborough County, Florida, U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Helai & Song, Bo & Xu, Pengpeng & Zeng, Qiang & Lee, Jaeyoung & Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, 2016. "Macro and micro models for zonal crash prediction with application in hot zones identification," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 248-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:54:y:2016:i:c:p:248-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.06.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692316303222
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.06.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Jaeyoung & Abdel-Aty, Mohamed & Jiang, Ximiao, 2014. "Development of zone system for macro-level traffic safety analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 13-21.
    2. Robin Haynes & Andrew Jones & Victoria Kennedy & Ian Harvey & Tony Jewell, 2007. "District Variations in Road Curvature in England and Wales and their Association with Road-Traffic Crashes," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 39(5), pages 1222-1237, May.
    3. Julian Besag & Jeremy York & Annie Mollié, 1991. "Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 43(1), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Abdel-Aty, Mohamed & Lee, Jaeyoung & Siddiqui, Chowdhury & Choi, Keechoo, 2013. "Geographical unit based analysis in the context of transportation safety planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 62-75.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ho-Chul Park & Yang-Jun Joo & Seung-Young Kho & Dong-Kyu Kim & Byung-Jung Park, 2019. "Injury Severity of Bus–Pedestrian Crashes in South Korea Considering the Effects of Regional and Company Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Bao, Jie & Yang, Zhao & Zeng, Weili & Shi, Xiaomeng, 2021. "Exploring the spatial impacts of human activities on urban traffic crashes using multi-source big data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Qiang Zeng & Wei Hao & Jaeyoung Lee & Feng Chen, 2020. "Investigating the Impacts of Real-Time Weather Conditions on Freeway Crash Severity: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-15, April.
    4. Ghadiri, Mehdi & Rassafi, Amir Abbas & Mirbaha, Babak, 2019. "The effects of traffic zoning with regular geometric shapes on the precision of trip production models," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 150-159.
    5. Ahtasham Gul & Muhammad Mohsin & Muhammad Adil & Mansoor Ali, 2021. "A modified truncated distribution for modeling the heavy tail, engineering and environmental sciences data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-24, April.
    6. Zeng, Qiang & Wen, Huiying & Huang, Helai & Wang, Jie & Lee, Jinwoo, 2020. "Analysis of crash frequency using a Bayesian underreporting count model with spatial correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    7. Huiying Wen & Xuan Zhang & Qiang Zeng & Jaeyoung Lee & Quan Yuan, 2019. "Investigating Spatial Autocorrelation and Spillover Effects in Freeway Crash-Frequency Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-12, January.
    8. Vennis Hong & Sage K Iwamoto & Rei Goto & Sean Young & Sukhawadee Chomduangthip & Natirath Weeranakin & Akihiro Nishi, 2020. "Socio-demographic determinants of motorcycle speeding in Maha Sarakham, Thailand," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Xiaoshan Su & Manying Bai, 2020. "Stochastic gradient boosting frequency-severity model of insurance claims," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-24, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghadiri, Mehdi & Rassafi, Amir Abbas & Mirbaha, Babak, 2019. "The effects of traffic zoning with regular geometric shapes on the precision of trip production models," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 150-159.
    2. Shichen Huang & Chunfu Shao & Juan Li & Xiong Yang & Xiaoyu Zhang & Jianpei Qian & Shengyou Wang, 2020. "Feature Extraction and Representation of Urban Road Networks Based on Travel Routes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-17, November.
    3. Alfonso Montella & Vittorio Marzano & Filomena Mauriello & Roberta Vitillo & Roberto Fasanelli & Mariano Pernetti & Francesco Galante, 2019. "Development of Macro-Level Safety Performance Functions in the City of Naples," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Yuan, Quan & Wang, Jueyu, 2021. "Goods movement, road safety, and spatial inequity: Evaluating freight-related crashes in low-income or minority neighborhoods," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Obelheiro, Marta Rodrigues & da Silva, Alan Ricardo & Nodari, Christine Tessele & Cybis, Helena Beatriz Bettella & Lindau, Luis Antonio, 2020. "A new zone system to analyze the spatial relationships between the built environment and traffic safety," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Katie Wilson & Jon Wakefield, 2022. "A probabilistic model for analyzing summary birth history data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(11), pages 291-344.
    7. Eibich, Peter & Ziebarth, Nicolas, 2014. "Examining the Structure of Spatial Health Effects in Germany Using Hierarchical Bayes Models," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 49, pages 305-320.
    8. Mayer Alvo & Jingrui Mu, 2023. "COVID-19 Data Analysis Using Bayesian Models and Nonparametric Geostatistical Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-13, March.
    9. Jia Guo & Yusak Susilo & Constantinos Antoniou & Anna Pernestål Brenden, 2020. "Influence of Individual Perceptions on the Decision to Adopt Automated Bus Services," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-13, August.
    10. Zhengyi Zhou & David S. Matteson & Dawn B. Woodard & Shane G. Henderson & Athanasios C. Micheas, 2015. "A Spatio-Temporal Point Process Model for Ambulance Demand," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(509), pages 6-15, March.
    11. Eric C. Tassone & Marie Lynn Miranda & Alan E. Gelfand, 2010. "Disaggregated spatial modelling for areal unit categorical data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(1), pages 175-190, January.
    12. Junming Li & Xiulan Han & Xiao Li & Jianping Yang & Xuejiao Li, 2018. "Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ground Monitored PM 2.5 Concentrations in China in Recent Years," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, January.
    13. Massimo Bilancia & Giacomo Demarinis, 2014. "Bayesian scanning of spatial disease rates with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA)," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(1), pages 71-94, March.
    14. Douglas R. M. Azevedo & Marcos O. Prates & Dipankar Bandyopadhyay, 2021. "MSPOCK: Alleviating Spatial Confounding in Multivariate Disease Mapping Models," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 26(3), pages 464-491, September.
    15. Jonathan Wakefield & Taylor Okonek & Jon Pedersen, 2020. "Small Area Estimation for Disease Prevalence Mapping," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(2), pages 398-418, August.
    16. Francisca Corpas-Burgos & Miguel A. Martinez-Beneito, 2021. "An Autoregressive Disease Mapping Model for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, February.
    17. Li Xu & Qingshan Jiang & David R. Lairson, 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Variation of Gender-Specific Hypertension Risk: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-26, November.
    18. Isabel Martínez-Pérez & Verónica González-Iglesias & Valentín Rodríguez Suárez & Ana Fernández-Somoano, 2021. "Spatial Distribution of Hospitalizations for Ischemic Heart Diseases in the Central Region of Asturias, Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-10, November.
    19. Johnson, Blair T. & Sisti, Anthony & Bernstein, Mary & Chen, Kun & Hennessy, Emily A. & Acabchuk, Rebecca L. & Matos, Michaela, 2021. "Community-level factors and incidence of gun violence in the United States, 2014–2017," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    20. F. Corpas-Burgos & P. Botella-Rocamora & M. A. Martinez-Beneito, 2019. "On the convenience of heteroscedasticity in highly multivariate disease mapping," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 28(4), pages 1229-1250, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:54:y:2016:i:c:p:248-256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.