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Development of Macro-Level Safety Performance Functions in the City of Naples

Author

Listed:
  • Alfonso Montella

    (Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, 80125 Naples, Italy)

  • Vittorio Marzano

    (Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, 80125 Naples, Italy)

  • Filomena Mauriello

    (Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, 80125 Naples, Italy)

  • Roberta Vitillo

    (Department of Business and Quantitative Studies, University of Naples Parthenope, 80132 Naples, Italy)

  • Roberto Fasanelli

    (Department of Social Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, 80138 Naples, Italy)

  • Mariano Pernetti

    (Department of Engineering, University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, 81031 Aversa (Caserta), Italy)

  • Francesco Galante

    (Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, 80125 Naples, Italy)

Abstract

This paper presents macro-level safety performance functions and aims to provide empirical tools for planners and engineers to conduct proactive analyses, promote more sustainable development patterns, and reduce road crashes. In the past decade, several studies have been conducted for crash modeling at a macro-level, yet in Italy, macro-level safety performance functions have neither been calibrated nor used, until now. Therefore, for Italy to be able to fully benefit from applying these models, it is necessary to calibrate the models to local conditions. Generalized linear modelling techniques were used to fit the models, and a negative binomial distribution error structure was assumed. The study used a sample of 15,254 crashes which occurred in the period of 2009–2011 in Naples, Italy. Four traffic analysis zones (TAZ) levels were used, as one of the aims of this paper is to check the extent to which these zoning levels help in addressing the issue. The models were developed by the stepwise forward procedure using explanatory Socio-Demographic (S-D), Transportation Demand Management (TDM), and Exposure variables. The most significant variables were: children and young people placed in re-education projects, population, population aged 65 and above, population aged 25 to 44, male population, total vehicle kilometers traveled, average congestion level, average speed, number of trips originating in the TAZ, number of trips ending in the TAZ, number of total trips and, number of bus stops served per hour. An important result of the study is that children and young people placed in re-education projects negatively affects the frequency of crashes, i.e., it has a positive safety effect. This demonstrates the effectiveness of education projects, especially on children from disadvantaged neighbourhoods.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso Montella & Vittorio Marzano & Filomena Mauriello & Roberta Vitillo & Roberto Fasanelli & Mariano Pernetti & Francesco Galante, 2019. "Development of Macro-Level Safety Performance Functions in the City of Naples," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:7:p:1871-:d:217967
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ennio Cascetta, 2009. "Transportation Systems Analysis," Springer Optimization and Its Applications, Springer, number 978-0-387-75857-2, June.
    2. Lee, Jaeyoung & Abdel-Aty, Mohamed & Jiang, Ximiao, 2014. "Development of zone system for macro-level traffic safety analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 13-21.
    3. Lord, Dominique & Mannering, Fred, 2010. "The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 291-305, June.
    4. Abdel-Aty, Mohamed & Lee, Jaeyoung & Siddiqui, Chowdhury & Choi, Keechoo, 2013. "Geographical unit based analysis in the context of transportation safety planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 62-75.
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    2. Tomislav Letnik & Katja Hanžič & Giuseppe Luppino & Matej Mencinger, 2022. "Impact of Logistics Trends on Freight Transport Development in Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-18, December.

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