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Where are the electric vehicles? A spatial model for vehicle-choice count data

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  • Chen, T. Donna
  • Wang, Yiyi
  • Kockelman, Kara M.

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are predicted to increase in market share as auto manufacturers introduce more fuel efficient vehicles to meet stricter fuel economy mandates and fossil fuel costs remain unpredictable. Reflecting spatial autocorrelation while controlling for a variety of demographic and locational (e.g., built environment) attributes, the zone-level spatial count model in this paper offers valuable information for power providers and charging station location decisions. By anticipating over 745,000 personal-vehicle registrations across a sample of 1000 census block groups in the Philadelphia region, a trivariate Poisson-lognormal conditional autoregressive (CAR) model anticipates Prius hybrid EV, other EV, and conventional vehicle ownership levels.Initial results signal higher EV ownership rates in more central zones with higher household incomes, along with significant residual spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that spatially-correlated latent variables and/or peer (neighbor) effects on purchase decisions are present. Such data sets will become more comprehensive and informative as EV market shares rise. This work’s multivariate Poisson-lognormal CAR modeling approach offers a rigorous, behaviorally-defensible framework for spatial patterns in choice behavior.

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  • Chen, T. Donna & Wang, Yiyi & Kockelman, Kara M., 2015. "Where are the electric vehicles? A spatial model for vehicle-choice count data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 181-188.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:181-188
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.02.005
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    2. Rodrigues, João L. & Bolognesi, Hugo M. & Melo, Joel D. & Heymann, Fabian & Soares, F.J., 2019. "Spatiotemporal model for estimating electric vehicles adopters," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 788-802.
    3. Austmann, Leonhard M., 2021. "Drivers of the electric vehicle market: A systematic literature review of empirical studies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    4. Kester, Johannes & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Noel, Lance & Zarazua de Rubens, Gerardo, 2020. "Rethinking the spatiality of Nordic electric vehicles and their popularity in urban environments: Moving beyond the city?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Dmitry Yu. Evdokimov & Yury Yu. Ponomarev, 2022. "Development of Charging Infrastructure in the Russian Regions: A Scenario Analysis [Развитие Электрозаправочной Инфраструктуры В Регионах России: Сценарный Анализ]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 11, pages 59-76, November.
    6. Mejia, Mario A. & Melo, Joel D. & Zambrano-Asanza, Sergio & Padilha-Feltrin, Antonio, 2020. "Spatial-temporal growth model to estimate the adoption of new end-use electric technologies encouraged by energy-efficiency programs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    7. Cláudia A. Soares Machado & Harmi Takiya & Charles Lincoln Kenji Yamamura & José Alberto Quintanilha & Fernando Tobal Berssaneti, 2020. "Placement of Infrastructure for Urban Electromobility: A Sustainable Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-18, August.
    8. Heymann, Fabian & Miranda, Vladimiro & Soares, Filipe Joel & Duenas, Pablo & Perez Arriaga, Ignacio & Prata, Ricardo, 2019. "Orchestrating incentive designs to reduce adverse system-level effects of large-scale EV/PV adoption – The case of Portugal," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    9. Illmann, Ulrike & Kluge, Jan, 2019. "Public Charging Infrastructure and the Market Diffusion of Electric Vehicles," IHS Working Paper Series 9, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    10. Shinsuke Kyoi, 2021. "People’s Avoidance of Neighboring Agricultural Urban Green Infrastructure: Evidence from a Choice Experiment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-26, June.
    11. Dmitry Yu. Evdokimov & Yury Yu. Ponomarev, 2022. "Развитие Электрозаправочной Инфраструктуры В Регионах России: Сценарный Анализ," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 11, pages 59-76, November.
    12. Tal, Gil & Lee, Jae H & Chakraborty, Debapriya & Davis, Adam, 2021. "Where are Used Electric Vehicles and Who are the Buyers?," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt8125k5tf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    13. Heymann, Fabian & Milojevic, Tatjana & Covatariu, Andrei & Verma, Piyush, 2023. "Digitalization in decarbonizing electricity systems – Phenomena, regional aspects, stakeholders, use cases, challenges and policy options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    14. Morton, Craig & Anable, Jillian & Yeboah, Godwin & Cottrill, Caitlin, 2018. "The spatial pattern of demand in the early market for electric vehicles: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 119-130.
    15. Yang, Anni & Liu, Chenhui & Yang, Di & Lu, Chaoru, 2023. "Electric vehicle adoption in a mature market: A case study of Norway," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    16. Wenbo Zhang & Tho V. Le & Satish V. Ukkusuri & Ruimin Li, 2020. "Influencing factors and heterogeneity in ridership of traditional and app-based taxi systems," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 971-996, April.
    17. Jie Song & Ruoniu Wang, 2017. "Measuring the Spatial Dimension of Automobile Ownership and Its Associations with Household Characteristics and Land Use Patterns: A Case Study in Three Counties, South Florida (USA)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, April.
    18. Andrzej Soboń & Daniel Słyś & Mariusz Ruszel & Alicja Wiącek, 2021. "Prospects for the Use of Hydrogen in the Armed Forces," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-12, October.
    19. Chakraborty, Debapriya & Bunch, David S. & Brownstone, David & Xu, Bingzheng & Tal, Gil, 2022. "Plug-in electric vehicle diffusion in California: Role of exposure to new technology at home and work," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 133-151.
    20. Mukherjee, Sanghamitra Chattopadhyay & Ryan, Lisa, 2020. "Factors influencing early battery electric vehicle adoption in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

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