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Forecasting the fast and frugal way: A study of performance and information-processing strategies of experts and non-experts when predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer

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This paper investigates forecasting performance and judgmental processes of experts and non-experts in soccer. Two circumstances motivated the paper: (i) little is known about how accurately experts predict sports events, and (ii) recent research on human judgment suggests that ignorance-based decision-strategies may be reliable. About 250 participants with different levels of knowledge of soccer took part in a survey and predicted the outcome of the first round of World Cup 2002. It was found that the participating experts (i.e., sport journalists, soccer fans, and soccer coaches) were not more accurate than the non-experts. Experts overestimated their performance and were overconfident. While the experts claimed to have relied on analytical approaches and much information, participants with limited knowledge stated that their forecasts were based upon recognition and few pieces of information. The paper concludes that a recognition-based strategy seems to be appropriate when forecasting worldwide soccer events.

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  • Andersson, Patric & Ekman, Mattias & Edman, Jan, 2003. "Forecasting the fast and frugal way: A study of performance and information-processing strategies of experts and non-experts when predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2003:9, Stockholm School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhb:hastba:2003_009
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Rules, not judgment
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2006-05-15 17:21:14

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    Cited by:

    1. Caiado, Jorge & Vieira, Aníbal & Bonito, Ana & Reis, Carlos & Fernandes, Francisco, 2006. "Previsão da eficácia ofensiva do futebol profissional: Um caso Português," MPRA Paper 2185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gonzalo A. Aranda‐Corral & Joaquín Borrego‐Dí­az & Juan Galán‐Páez, 2013. "On the Phenomenological Reconstruction of Complex Systems—The Scale‐Free Conceptualization Hypothesis," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(6), pages 716-734, November.
    3. Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
    4. Kim, Sehoon & Connerton, Timothy Paul & Park, Cheongyeul, 2021. "Exploring the impact of technological disruptions in the automotive retail: A futures studies and systems thinking approach based on causal layered analysis and causal loop diagram," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    5. Erceg, Nikola & Galić, Zvonimir, 2014. "Overconfidence bias and conjunction fallacy in predicting outcomes of football matches," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 52-62.

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    Keywords

    Expert predictions; Information use; Judgmental forecasting; Overconfidence; Recognition heuristic; Sports forecasting;
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