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Delayed risk in individual and social decisions

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  • Özgümüs, Asri
  • Rau, Holger A.
  • Trautmann, Stefan T.

Abstract

This paper studies temporal-distance effects on individual and social risks, testing Construal Level Theory. We elicit WTPs for risky and ambiguous lotteries and vary the timing (immediately vs. in two weeks) when the uncertainty is resolved. Subjects have lower WTPs for longshots than for safer lotteries. Under ambiguity, this gap decreases with temporal distance. Subjects are ambiguity averse, which becomes less pronounced when low-probability lotteries are processed in the future. In a trust game, we study temporal-distance effects on social risks. Time distance lowers trust as trustors correctly anticipate that reciprocity is lower when trustees decide in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Özgümüs, Asri & Rau, Holger A. & Trautmann, Stefan T., 2024. "Delayed risk in individual and social decisions," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:102:y:2024:i:c:s0167487024000187
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2024.102710
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time distance; Construal level theory; Ambiguity; Individual risks; Social risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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