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Asymmetric evidence of gasoline price responses in France: A Markov-switching approach

Author

Listed:
  • Raphael Homayoun Boroumand
  • Stéphane Goutte

    (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Simon Porcher

    (IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises)

  • Thomas Porcher

    (ESG Research Lab - ESG Management School)

Abstract

It has been documented that retail gasoline prices respond more quickly to increases in wholesale prices than they do to decreases in wholesale prices. However, there is little empirical evidence that identifies the link between the pass-through of oil prices to gasoline in different volatility regimes. Using a Markov-switching model on weekly observations of fuel prices from 1990 to 2011, we find that fuel prices respond significantly faster to increases in crude oil prices than to decreases in crude oil prices. However, when volatility is low, the transmittal of a price change from crude oil to retail fuel is higher compared to periods of high volatility. These results provide important information on the behavior of retailers. The findings of this paper therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of fuel prices and some policy implications.
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Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Homayoun Boroumand & Stéphane Goutte & Simon Porcher & Thomas Porcher, 2016. "Asymmetric evidence of gasoline price responses in France: A Markov-switching approach," Post-Print hal-02145806, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02145806
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.09.027
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    4. Raphaël Homayoun Boroumand & Stéphane Goutte & Simon Porcher & Thomas Porcher, 2014. "A Conditional Markov Regime Switching Model to Study Margins: Application to the French Fuel Retail Markets," Working Papers hal-01090837, HAL.
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    6. Arezoo Ghazanfari & Armin Razmjoo, 2022. "The Effect of Market Isolation on Competitive Behavior in Retail Petrol Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-33, July.
    7. Amountzias, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "Do petrol prices rise faster than they fall? Evidence from the UK retail and wholesale petrol sectors," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
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    9. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2016. "Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-328.
    10. Abdhut Deheri & Stefy Carmel, 2024. "Are the Responses of Oil Products Prices Asymmetrical to Global Crude Oil Price Shocks? Evidence from India," Working Papers 2024-265, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    11. Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2019. "Oil and pump prices: Is there any asymmetry in the Greek oil downstream sector?," MPRA Paper 95407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. José María Martín-Moreno & Rafaela Pérez & Jesús Ruiz, 2019. "Evidence about asymmetric price transmission in the main European fuel markets: from TAR-ECM to Markov-switching approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1383-1412, April.
    13. Karol Szomolanyi & Martin Lukacik & Adriana Lukacikova, 2022. "Estimation of asymmetric responses of U.S. retail fuel prices to changes in input prices based on a linear exponential adjustment cost approach," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 30(2), pages 757-779, June.
    14. Kang, Wensheng & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Ratti, Ronald A., 2019. "The asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 66-79.
    15. Hamid Baghestani & Jorg Bley, 2020. "Do directional predictions of US gasoline prices reveal asymmetries?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(2), pages 348-360, April.
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    17. Boroumand, Raphaël Homayoun & Porcher, Thomas & Urom, Christian, 2021. "Negative oil price shocks transmission: The comparative effects of the GFC, shale oil boom, and Covid-19 downturn on French gasoline prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

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