IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmvana/v157y2017icp124-135.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymptotic Fisher information matrix of Markov switching VARMA models

Author

Listed:
  • Cavicchioli, Maddalena

Abstract

We study the Fisher information (FI) matrix of Markov switching vector autoregressive moving average (MS VARMA) models and derive an explicit expression in closed form for the asymptotic FI matrix of the underlying model. Our result is more general than the available one in the literature for linear VARMA models, which has been recently studied in Bao and Hua (2014), in two respects. First, we treat the variance of the error term in a more general setting rather than considering it as a nuisance parameter. Then, we consider non-trivial intercept in the MS VARMA model. Under general conditions, the asymptotic FI matrix can be used to derive the asymptotic covariance matrix of the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator of the model parameters. Some examples and numerical applications illustrate the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2017. "Asymptotic Fisher information matrix of Markov switching VARMA models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 124-135.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:157:y:2017:i:c:p:124-135
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2017.03.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047259X17301677
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmva.2017.03.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francq, C. & Zakoian, J. -M., 2001. "Stationarity of multivariate Markov-switching ARMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 339-364, June.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Newton, H. Joseph, 1978. "The information matrices of the parameters of multiple mixed time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 317-323, June.
    4. Hannan, E. J. & Dunsmuir, W. T. M. & Deistler, M., 1980. "Estimation of vector ARMAX models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 275-295, September.
    5. André Klein & Guy Melard & Toufik Zahaf, 2000. "Construction of the exact Fisher information matrix of Gaussian time series models by means of matrix differential rules," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13742, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    7. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    8. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2017. "Higher Order Moments Of Markov Switching Varma Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(6), pages 1502-1515, December.
    9. Klein, André & Mélard, Guy & Saidi, Abdessamad, 2008. "The asymptotic and exact Fisher information matrices of a vector ARMA process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(12), pages 1430-1433, September.
    10. Velinov, Anton & Chen, Wenjuan, 2015. "Do stock prices reflect their fundamentals? New evidence in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-20.
    11. Bao, Yong & Hua, Ying, 2014. "On the Fisher information matrix of a vector ARMA process," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 14-16.
    12. Gallo, Giampiero M. & Otranto, Edoardo, 2015. "Forecasting realized volatility with changing average levels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 620-634.
    13. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2014. "Analysis Of The Likelihood Function For Markov-Switching Var(Ch) Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 624-639, November.
    14. Wand, M.P., 2007. "Fisher information for generalised linear mixed models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(7), pages 1412-1416, August.
    15. Yang, Minxian, 2000. "Some Properties Of Vector Autoregressive Processes With Markov-Switching Coefficients," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 23-43, February.
    16. André Klein & Guy Melard & Abdessamad Saidi, 2008. "The asymptotic and exact Fisher information matrices," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13766, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    17. Hatefi, Armin & Jafari Jozani, Mohammad, 2013. "Fisher information in different types of perfect and imperfect ranked set samples from finite mixture models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 16-31.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2024. "A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    2. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2020. "Invertibility and VAR Representations of Time-Varying Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 61-86, January.
    3. Nan Li & Simon S. Kwok, 2021. "Jointly determining the state dimension and lag order for Markov‐switching vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 471-491, July.
    4. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2023. "Impulse response function analysis for Markov switching var models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    5. BenSaïda, Ahmed & Litimi, Houda & Abdallah, Oussama, 2018. "Volatility spillover shifts in global financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 343-353.
    6. Marie-Christine Duker & David S. Matteson & Ruey S. Tsay & Ines Wilms, 2024. "Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average Models: A Review," Papers 2406.19702, arXiv.org.
    7. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2023. "Statistical analysis of Markov switching vector autoregression models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2020. "A note on the asymptotic and exact Fisher information matrices of a Markov switching VARMA process," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(1), pages 129-139, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2020. "A note on the asymptotic and exact Fisher information matrices of a Markov switching VARMA process," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(1), pages 129-139, March.
    2. Marie-Christine Duker & David S. Matteson & Ruey S. Tsay & Ines Wilms, 2024. "Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average Models: A Review," Papers 2406.19702, arXiv.org.
    3. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2024. "A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    4. Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2023. "Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    5. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2021. "OLS Estimation of Markov switching VAR models: asymptotics and application to energy use," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(3), pages 431-449, September.
    6. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2023. "Impulse response function analysis for Markov switching var models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    7. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2023. "Statistical analysis of Markov switching vector autoregression models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2020. "Invertibility and VAR Representations of Time-Varying Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 61-86, January.
    9. Nan Li & Simon S. Kwok, 2021. "Jointly determining the state dimension and lag order for Markov‐switching vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 471-491, July.
    10. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2014. "Analysis Of The Likelihood Function For Markov-Switching Var(Ch) Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 624-639, November.
    11. Bao, Yong & Hua, Ying, 2014. "On the Fisher information matrix of a vector ARMA process," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 14-16.
    12. Hamilton, J.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 163-201, Elsevier.
    13. Maddalena Cavicchioli, 2016. "Weak VARMA representations of regime-switching state-space models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 705-720, September.
    14. Giampiero Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2006. "Volatility Transmission Across Markets: A Multi-Chain Markov Switching Model," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2006_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    15. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Planas, Christophe & Rossi, Alessandro, 2016. "Skewness and kurtosis of multivariate Markov-switching processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 153-159.
    16. Tom A. FEARNLEY, 2002. "Tests of an International Capital Asset Pricing Model with Stocks and Government Bonds and Regime Switching Prices of Risk and Intercepts," FAME Research Paper Series rp97, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    17. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani, 2019. "Risk Measurement," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02119256, HAL.
    18. BenSaïda, Ahmed & Litimi, Houda & Abdallah, Oussama, 2018. "Volatility spillover shifts in global financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 343-353.
    19. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & María de la Cruz Del Río-Rama & José Álvarez-García, 2022. "Using Markov-Switching Models in US Stocks Optimal Portfolio Selection in a Black–Litterman Context (Part 1)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-28, April.
    20. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Advances in Econometrics, in: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications, pages 1-86, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:157:y:2017:i:c:p:124-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.