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Frequency illusions and other fallacies

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  • Sloman, Steven A.
  • Over, David
  • Slovak, Lila
  • Stibel, Jeffrey M.

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Sloman, Steven A. & Over, David & Slovak, Lila & Stibel, Jeffrey M., 2003. "Frequency illusions and other fallacies," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 296-309, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:91:y:2003:i:2:p:296-309
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johnson, Eric J & Hershey, John & Meszaros, Jacqueline & Kunreuther, Howard, 1993. "Framing, Probability Distortions, and Insurance Decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-51, August.
    2. Brenner, Lyle A. & Koehler, Derek J. & Liberman, Varda & Tversky, Amos, 1996. "Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 212-219, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Glöckner & Christoph Engel, 2013. "Can We Trust Intuitive Jurors? Standards of Proof and the Probative Value of Evidence in Coherence‐Based Reasoning," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(2), pages 230-252, June.
    2. Richard B. Anderson & Laura Marie Leventhal & Don C. Zhang & Daniel Fasko, Jr. & Zachariah Basehore & Christopher Gamsby & Jared Branch & Timothy Patrick, 2019. "Belief bias and representation in assessing the Bayesian rationality of others," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, January.
    3. Baratgin, Jean, 2009. "Updating our beliefs about inconsistency: The Monty-Hall case," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 67-95, January.
    4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:3:y:2008:i::p:140-152 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Shira Elqayam & David Over, 2012. "Probabilities, beliefs, and dual processing: the paradigm shift in the psychology of reasoning," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 11(1), pages 27-40, June.
    6. Sprenger, Amber & Dougherty, Michael R., 2006. "Differences between probability and frequency judgments: The role of individual differences in working memory capacity," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 202-211, March.
    7. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:1:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Theresa Büchter & Andreas Eichler & Nicole Steib & Karin Binder & Katharina Böcherer-Linder & Stefan Krauss & Markus Vogel, 2022. "How to Train Novices in Bayesian Reasoning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-31, May.
    9. Goodwin, Paul, 2015. "When simple alternatives to Bayes formula work well: Reducing the cognitive load when updating probability forecasts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1686-1691.
    10. Christine Ohlert & Barbara Weißenberger, 2015. "Beating the base-rate fallacy: an experimental approach on the effectiveness of different information presentation formats," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 51-80, April.
    11. Andrea Polonioli, 2012. "Gigerenzer’s ‘external validity argument’ against the heuristics and biases program: an assessment," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 11(2), pages 133-148, December.
    12. Freling, Traci H. & Yang, Zhiyong & Saini, Ritesh & Itani, Omar S. & Rashad Abualsamh, Ryan, 2020. "When poignant stories outweigh cold hard facts: A meta-analysis of the anecdotal bias," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 51-67.
    13. William P. Neace & Steven Michaud & Lauren Bolling & Kate Deer & Ljiljana Zecevic, 2008. "Frequency formats, probability formats, or problem structure? A test of the nested-sets hypothesis in an extensional reasoning task," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 3, pages 140-152, February.
    14. Maria Penna & Mirian Agus & Maribel Peró-Cebollero & Joan Guàrdia-Olmos & Eliano Pessa, 2014. "The use of imagery in statistical reasoning by university undergraduate students: a preliminary study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 173-187, January.
    15. Jeffrey Stibel & Itiel Dror & Talia Ben-Zeev, 2009. "The Collapsing Choice Theory: Dissociating Choice and Judgment in Decision Making," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 149-179, February.
    16. Shahar Ayal & Ruth Beyth-Marom, 2014. "The effects of mental steps and compatibility on Bayesian reasoning," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(3), pages 226-242, May.
    17. repec:cup:judgdm:v:9:y:2014:i:3:p:226-242 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:cup:judgdm:v:1:y:2006:i::p:108-117 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Yuichi Amitani, 2015. "The natural frequency hypothesis and evolutionary arguments," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 14(1), pages 1-19, June.
    20. Mary Kynn, 2008. "The ‘heuristics and biases’ bias in expert elicitation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 239-264, January.
    21. Christoph Engel & Andreas Glöckner, 2008. "Can We Trust Intuitive Jurors? An Experimental Analysis," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2008_36, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    22. André C. R. Martins, 2006. "Probability biases as Bayesian inference," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 1, pages 108-117, November.
    23. Zhiyong Yang & Ritesh Saini & Traci Freling, 2015. "How Anxiety Leads to Suboptimal Decisions Under Risky Choice Situations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(10), pages 1789-1800, October.

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