IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmvana/v98y2007i5p1072-1094.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymptotic confidence intervals for Poisson regression

Author

Listed:
  • Kohler, Michael
  • Krzyzak, Adam

Abstract

Let (X,Y) be a -valued random vector where the conditional distribution of Y given X=x is a Poisson distribution with mean m(x). We estimate m by a local polynomial kernel estimate defined by maximizing a localized log-likelihood function. We use this estimate of m(x) to estimate the conditional distribution of Y given X=x by a corresponding Poisson distribution and to construct confidence intervals of level [alpha] of Y given X=x. Under mild regularity conditions on m(x) and on the distribution of X we show strong convergence of the integrated L1 distance between Poisson distribution and its estimate. We also demonstrate that the corresponding confidence interval has asymptotically (i.e., for sample size tending to infinity) level [alpha], and that the probability that the length of this confidence interval deviates from the optimal length by more than one converges to zero with the number of samples tending to infinity.

Suggested Citation

  • Kohler, Michael & Krzyzak, Adam, 2007. "Asymptotic confidence intervals for Poisson regression," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(5), pages 1072-1094, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:98:y:2007:i:5:p:1072-1094
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047-259X(06)00114-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Györfi, László & Walk, Harro, 1997. "On the strong universal consistency of a recursive regression estimate by Pál Révész," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 177-183, January.
    2. Michael Kohler, 2002. "Universal Consistency of Local Polynomial Kernel Regression Estimates," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 54(4), pages 879-899, December.
    3. Algoet, Paul & Györfi, László, 1999. "Strong Universal Pointwise Consistency of Some Regression Function Estimates," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 125-144, October.
    4. Harro Walk, 2001. "Strong Universal Pointwise Consistency of Recursive Regression Estimates," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 53(4), pages 691-707, December.
    5. Hudson, H. Malcolm & Lee, Thomas C. M., 1998. "Maximum likelihood restoration and choice of smoothing parameter in deconvolution of image data subject to Poisson noise," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 393-410, February.
    6. J. Fan & M. Farmen & I. Gijbels, 1998. "Local maximum likelihood estimation and inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(3), pages 591-608.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José Santos & M. Neves, 2008. "A local maximum likelihood estimator for Poisson regression," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 257-270, November.
    2. Zhao, Xiaobing & Zhou, Xian, 2009. "Semiparametric modeling of medical cost data containing zeros," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 1207-1214, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Walk, Harro, 2008. "A universal strong law of large numbers for conditional expectations via nearest neighbors," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(6), pages 1035-1050, July.
    2. Matthias Hansmann & Benjamin M. Horn & Michael Kohler & Stefan Ulbrich, 2022. "Estimation of conditional distribution functions from data with additional errors applied to shape optimization," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 85(3), pages 323-343, April.
    3. Harro Walk, 2005. "Strong universal consistency of smooth kernel regression estimates," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 57(4), pages 665-685, December.
    4. Matthias Hansmann & Michael Kohler & Harro Walk, 2019. "On the strong universal consistency of local averaging regression estimates," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 71(5), pages 1233-1263, October.
    5. Wongsa-art, Pipat & Kim, Namhyun & Xia, Yingcun & Moscone, Francesco, 2024. "Varying coefficient panel data models and methods under correlated error components: Application to disparities in mental health services in England," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    6. Aboubacar Amiri, 2013. "Asymptotic normality of recursive estimators under strong mixing conditions," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 81-96, July.
    7. Guessoum Zohra & Ould-Said Elias, 2009. "On nonparametric estimation of the regression function under random censorship model," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 26(3), pages 159-177, April.
    8. Zhang, Wenyang & Li, Degui & Xia, Yingcun, 2015. "Estimation in generalised varying-coefficient models with unspecified link functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 238-255.
    9. Bocart, Fabian Y. R. P. & Hafner, Christian M., 2012. "Volatility of price indices for heterogeneous goods," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-039, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    10. Wiktor Budziński & Danny Campbell & Mikołaj Czajkowski & Urška Demšar & Nick Hanley, 2018. "Using Geographically Weighted Choice Models to Account for the Spatial Heterogeneity of Preferences," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 606-626, September.
    11. Djogbenou, Antoine & Inan, Emre & Jasiak, Joann, 2023. "Time-varying coefficient DAR model and stability measures for stablecoin prices: An application to Tether," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Zhao, Xiao Bing & Zhou, Xian & Wang, Jing Long, 2009. "Semiparametric model for prediction of individual claim loss reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-8, August.
    13. Teuber, T. & Lang, A., 2012. "A new similarity measure for nonlocal filtering in the presence of multiplicative noise," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(12), pages 3821-3842.
    14. Kohler, Michael & Máthé, Kinga & Pintér, Márta, 2002. "Prediction from Randomly Right Censored Data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 73-100, January.
    15. Hans R. A. Koster & Jos van Ommeren, 2019. "Place-Based Policies and the Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 400-414, July.
    16. Centorrino, Samuele & Florens, Jean-Pierre, 2021. "Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Estimation of Binary Response Models with Continuous Endogenous Regressors," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 35-63.
    17. Peixin Zhao & Liugen Xue, 2013. "Instrumental variable-based empirical likelihood inferences for varying-coefficient models with error-prone covariates," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 380-396, February.
    18. Chen, Bin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2016. "Detecting For Smooth Structural Changes In Garch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(03), pages 740-791, June.
    19. Vidal-Sanz, Jose M., 2004. "Pointwise universal consistency of nonparametric linear estimators," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb045821, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    20. Francesco Bravo, 2020. "Robust estimation and inference for general varying coefficient models with missing observations," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(4), pages 966-988, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:98:y:2007:i:5:p:1072-1094. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.