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Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields and Foreign Holdings in the Post-Lehman Period - a Fortune or Misfortune?

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  • Mr. Christian H Ebeke
  • Miss Yinqiu Lu

Abstract

The paper shows that foreign holdings of local currency government bonds in emerging market countries (EMs) have reduced bond yields but have somewhat increased yield volatility in the post-Lehman period. Econometric analyses conducted from a sample of 12 EMs demonstrate that these results are robust and causal. We use an identification strategy exploiting the geography-based measure of EMs financial remoteness vis-à-vis major offshore financial centers as an instrumental variable for the foreign holdings variable.The results also show that, in countries with weak fiscal and external positions, foreign holdings are greatly associated with increased yield volatility. A case study using Poland data elaborates on the cross country findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Miss Yinqiu Lu, 2014. "Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields and Foreign Holdings in the Post-Lehman Period - a Fortune or Misfortune?," IMF Working Papers 2014/029, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/029
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    1. Sebastián García-Andrade, 2019. "Efectos del rebalanceo de los índices de J.P. Morgan en 2014 sobre los rendimientos de los TES en moneda local," Borradores de Economia 1094, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2021. "Does Public Debt Ownership Structure Matter for a Borrowing Country?," Working Papers REM 2021/0190, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Gadanecz, Blaise & Miyajima, Ken & Shu, Chang, 2018. "Emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields: The role of exchange rate risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 371-401.
    4. Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB) & Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2016. "Asia Bond Monitor - June 2016," ADB Reports RPS168158-2, Asian Development Bank (ADB).
    5. Konopczak, Michal, 2015. "Government debt holdings of non-residents – an analysis of the impact on selected emerging economies’ sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 68597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Conterius, Simeon & Akimov, Alexandr & Su, Jen-Je & Roca, Eduardo, 2023. "Do foreign investors have a positive impact on the domestic government bonds market? A panel pooled mean group approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 863-875.
    7. Camila Henao-Arbelaez & Nelson Sobrinho, 2018. "Activos financieros del gobierno y sostenibilidad de la deuda," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 45-98, enero-mar.
    8. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2022. "Investor Base Dynamics and Sovereign Bond Yield Volatility," Working Papers REM 2022/0234, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Dennis Essers & Hans J. Blommestein & Danny Cassimon & Perla Ibarlucea Flores, 2016. "Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1167-1194, May.
    10. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2022. "Revisiting The Determinants Of Sovereign Bond Yield Volatility," Working Papers REM 2022/0241, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Uruguay: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/082, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Asian Development Bank Institute, 2017. "Asia Bond Monitor - June 2016," Working Papers id:11793, eSocialSciences.
    13. José Antonio Ocampo & Germán D. Orbegozo & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Nicolás Fajardo-Baquero & Oscar Botero-Ramírez & Camilo OrozcoVanegas, 2020. "Post-graduation from the original sin problem The effects of investor participation on sovereign debt markets," Borradores de Economia 1113, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Konopczak, Karolina & Konopczak, Michał, 2017. "Impact of International capital flows on emerging markets’ sovereign risk premium – demand vs. vulnerability effect," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 239-245.
    15. Mr. Tamon Asonuma & Mr. Said A Bakhache & Mr. Heiko Hesse, 2015. "Is Banks’ Home Bias Good or Bad for Public Debt Sustainability?," IMF Working Papers 2015/044, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2014. "Internationalization of Finance and Changing Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 217, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    17. Carlos Góes & Herman Kamil & Phil De Imus & Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Jeremy Zook, 2017. "Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico’s Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2017/050, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Ms. Annette J Kyobe, 2015. "Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets," IMF Working Papers 2015/141, International Monetary Fund.

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