IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v148y2024ics0261560624001438.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate dynamics and the central bank's balance sheet

Author

Listed:
  • Gallacher, Guillermo
  • Granados, Camilo
  • Mann, Janelle

Abstract

Are nominal exchange rate variations linked to the central bank's balance sheet, in particular to remunerated domestic liabilities? We use two metrics of implied exchange rates based on central bank balance sheet data: one is a traditional metric that includes the monetary base, and the other adds remunerated domestic liabilities. We first estimate a VAR model to investigate the endogenous interactions between central bank balance sheet components for a set of seven Latin American countries for the 2006:01-2019:12 period. Then, we use a pairwise cointegration framework to compare these two metrics of implied exchange rate with the spot (observed) exchange rate. We find that the implied exchange rates and the spot exchange rate are cointegrated for most of the set of Latin American countries. We also find that for a subset of our sample, the spot exchange rate adjusts to the metric that adds remunerated domestic liabilities. We conclude that remunerated domestic liabilities matter for understanding exchange rate dynamics, and explore a simple theoretical setup to better understand the mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallacher, Guillermo & Granados, Camilo & Mann, Janelle, 2024. "Exchange rate dynamics and the central bank's balance sheet," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:148:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624001438
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001438
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103156?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei, Yu & Qin, Songkun & Li, Xiafei & Zhu, Sha & Wei, Guiwu, 2019. "Oil price fluctuation, stock market and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from China before and after the financial crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 23-29.
    2. Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Jaewoo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2015. "The valuation channel of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 86-114.
    3. Carlos A. Rodríguez, 1993. "Economic Consequences of Quasi-Fiscal Deficits," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 91, Universidad del CEMA.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Sosa-Padilla, César & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2023. "Does it matter how central banks accumulate reserves? Evidence from sovereign spreads," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    7. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    8. Alejandro M. Rodríguez, 2018. "Quasi-fiscal Deficit Financing and (Hyper) Inflation," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 649, Universidad del CEMA.
    9. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2013. "Threshold Cointegration: Model Selection with an Application," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 56(2), pages 54-77.
    10. Seo, Myung Hwan, 2008. "Unit Root Test In A Threshold Autoregression: Asymptotic Theory And Residual-Based Block Bootstrap," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1699-1716, December.
    11. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    12. Ters, Kristyna & Urban, Jörg, 2020. "Estimating unknown arbitrage costs: Evidence from a 3-regime threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    13. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
    14. Subervie, Julie, 2011. "Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2239-2246, September.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    17. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    18. Johnson, Harry G., 1977. "The monetary approach to the balance of payments : A nontechnical guide," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 251-268, August.
    19. Galay, Gregory, 2019. "Are crude oil markets cointegrated? Testing the co-movement of weekly crude oil spot prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    20. Yahya, Muhammad & Kanjilal, Kakali & Dutta, Anupam & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Ghosh, Sajal, 2021. "Can clean energy stock price rule oil price? New evidences from a regime-switching model at first and second moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    21. Kai-yin Woo & Shu-kam Lee & Paul Kwok Shum, 2021. "Evidence on PPP with China along the belt and road using the three-regime TAR cointegration tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2391-2405, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sephton, Peter & Mann, Janelle, 2018. "Gold and crude oil prices after the great moderation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 273-281.
    2. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2013. "Threshold Cointegration: Model Selection with an Application," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 56(2), pages 54-77.
    3. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Tuesta, Vicente, 2011. "Cointegrated TFP processes and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 156-171, March.
    4. Ahmad Al Humssi & Maria Petrovskaya & Milana Abueva, 2022. "Modelling the Impact of World Oil Prices and the Mining and Quarrying Sector on the United Arab Emirates’ GDP," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 179-193, April.
    6. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2016. "Compelling Evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve in the United Kingdom," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(2), pages 301-315, June.
    7. Gonzalo, Jesùs & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2005. "Threshold effects In multivariate error correction models," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0501, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    8. Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda & Abdulai, Awudu, 2013. "Policy reforms and asymmetric price transmission in the Zambian and Tanzanian coffee markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 786-795.
    9. Daiki Maki & Shin-ichi Kitasaka, 2015. "Residual-based tests for cointegration with three-regime TAR adjustment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1013-1054, May.
    10. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Sephton, Peter S., 2019. "El Niño, La Niña, and a cup of Joe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Regime-dependent adjustment in energy spot and futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-409.
    13. repec:got:cegedp:76 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Muhammad Shahbaz & Naceur Khraief & Mantu Kumar Mahalik, 2020. "Investigating the environmental Kuznets’s curve for Sweden: evidence from multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1883-1902, October.
    15. Janelle Mann, 2016. "Rockets and feathers meet markup margins: Applications to the oil and gasoline industry," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(2), pages 772-788, May.
    16. Michael KUEHL, 2008. "Strong Comovements of Exchange Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Cases when Currencies Become the Same Asset," EcoMod2008 23800071, EcoMod.
    17. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    18. Mann, Janelle & Sephton, Peter, 2016. "Global relationships across crude oil benchmarks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-5.
    19. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    20. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Dimitrios Sideris, 2019. "Asymmetric price adjustment and the effects of structural reforms in a low income environment: the case of the gasoline market in Greece," Working Papers 274, Bank of Greece.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:148:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624001438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.