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Which sectors go on when there is a sudden stop? An empirical analysis

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  • Kónya, István
  • Váry, Miklós

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamics of sectoral Real Gross Value Added (RGVA) around sudden stops in foreign capital inflows. We identify sudden stop episodes statistically from changes in gross capital inflows from the financial account. In the baseline specification, we estimate changes in the growth rate of sectoral RGVA during sudden stops and in the few quarters preceding and following them. We also look at whether real exchange rate movements and the depth of the RGVA decline on impact explain different sectoral dynamics afterwards. In an additional exercise, we analyze deviations from the sectors' long-run growth path. Our findings indicate that: (i) the construction sector experiences the largest drop in its growth rate during sudden stops; (ii) generally, tradable sectors, especially manufacturing, face larger damages during sudden stops than nontradable sectors, but they decelerate less in the medium run than some service sectors; (iii) the depth of the initial slowdown is related to a more favorable subsequent performance (a rebound effect), while we find only very weak evidence that real exchange rate depreciations facilitate adjustment. Overall, our results suggest a prolonged reallocation of economic activity away from service sectors, towards the production of goods. This is consistent with a traditional view of the role of tradable and nontradable sectors in a sudden stop episode.

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  • Kónya, István & Váry, Miklós, 2024. "Which sectors go on when there is a sudden stop? An empirical analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:146:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624000974
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103110
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sudden stop; Sectoral adjustment; Capital flows; Exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy

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