IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01247628.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Changes: The Impact of Trade Openness

Author

Listed:
  • Davide Romelli

    (ESSEC Business School, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Cristina Terra

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ESSEC Business School)

  • Enrico Vasconcelos

    (Banco Central do Brasil)

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of trade openness on the relationship between current account and real exchange rates, during episodes of sudden stops and of abrupt exchange rate depreciations. Using data for developed and emerging economies for the period 1970-2011, we nd that more open economies are associated with lower exchange rate depreciations during sudden stops. We also provide evidence that, during abrupt exchange rate depreciation episodes, economies that are more open to trade experience a larger change in current account and trade balance. In other words, our results indicate that improvements in current account and trade balance are accompanied by a smaller exchange rate depreciation in more open economies. These fi ndings are robust to di fferent measures of openness to trade and methodologies of identifying sudden stops and abrupt exchange rate depreciations.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Romelli & Cristina Terra & Enrico Vasconcelos, 2015. "Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Changes: The Impact of Trade Openness," Working Papers hal-01247628, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01247628
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2439832
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://essec.hal.science/hal-01247628
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://essec.hal.science/hal-01247628/document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2139/ssrn.2439832?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hélène Rey & Philippe Martin, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1631-1651, December.
    4. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    6. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    7. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 252-265.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    9. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    10. Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Openness and income: The roles of trade and migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 10, pages 309-329, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    13. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl, 2013. "Four Generations of Global Imbalances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-5, February.
    15. Alexander D. Rothenberg & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 509-524, August.
    16. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-630, August.
    17. Rose, Andrew K., 2005. "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 189-206, June.
    18. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops, and Current-Account Reversals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 59-64, May.
    20. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    21. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    22. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    23. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Martin, Philippe & Pesenti, Paolo, 2013. "Varieties and the transfer problem," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-12.
    24. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    25. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences [‘A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 62-118.
    26. Camilo E Tovar, 2005. "International government debt denominated in local currency: recent developments in Latin America," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    27. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," NBER Working Papers 11691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
    29. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2018. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 176-204.
    30. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    31. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    32. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
    33. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2016. "Currency unions and trade: A post-EMU reassessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 78-91.
    34. Molina, Danielken & Roa, Monica, 2014. "The Effect of Credit on the Export Performance of Colombian Exporters," MPRA Paper 56137, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Gervais, Olivier & Schembri, Lawrence & Suchanek, Lena, 2016. "Current account dynamics, real exchange rate adjustment, and the exchange rate regime in emerging-market economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 86-99.
    37. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "A Historical Public Debt Database," IMF Working Papers 2010/245, International Monetary Fund.
    38. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    39. Pablo E. Guidotti & Federico Sturzenegger & Agustín Villar, 2004. "On the Consequences of Sudden Stops," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 171-214, January.
    40. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    41. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    42. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradable Goods in Economies Prone to Sudden Stops," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2005), pages 103-148, August.
    43. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 19362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Coleman, Simeon & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2021. "Panel cointegration, quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustments and crises: The case of EU current accounts," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    2. Carlos A. Silva & Xavier Ordeñana & Paul Vera-Gilces & Alfredo Jiménez, 2021. "Global Imbalances: The Role of Institutions, Financial Development and FDI in the Context of Financial Crises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, January.
    3. Khumalo, Zitsile Zamantungwa & Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Choga, Ireen, 2020. "An Empirical Test of Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Selected African Countries," MPRA Paper 101303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Munir Ahmad & Gul Jabeen & Syed Ahsan Ali Shah & Abdul Rehman & Fayyaz Ahmad & Cem Işik, 2022. "Assessing long- and short-run dynamic interplay among balance of trade, aggregate economic output, real exchange rate, and CO2 emissions in Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 7283-7323, May.
    5. Emter, Lorenz, 2023. "Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 711-731.
    6. Katarzyna Twarowska-Mol & Małgorzata Twarowska-Ratajczak, 2021. "Analysis of Factors Determining Global Payment Imbalances in 2000-2019," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 455-478.
    7. Bosede Victoria Kudaisi, 2022. "Trade, Financial Liberalisation And Current Account Balance In Nigeria," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(special), pages 36-50, June.
    8. Ernesto R. Gantman & Marcelo P. Dabós, 2018. "Does trade openness influence the real effective exchange rate? New evidence from panel time-series," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 91-113, March.
    9. Yushi Yoshida & Weiyang Zhai, 2021. "Revisiting the Glick–Rogoff Current Account Model: An Application to the Current Accounts of BRICS Countries," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 265-291, Springer.
    10. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2019. "Flexible exchange rates and current account adjustment," Discussion Papers 2019/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    11. Helena Glebocki Keefe & Sujata Saha, 2022. "Threshold effects of openness on real and nominal effective exchange rates in emerging and developing economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 1386-1408, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    3. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2019. "Ride the Wild Surf: An investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 112-136.
    4. Emter, Lorenz, 2023. "Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 711-731.
    5. Lorenzoni, Guido, 2014. "International Financial Crises," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 689-740, Elsevier.
    6. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2018. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 176-204.
    7. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    8. Agosin, Manuel R. & Díaz, Juan D. & Karnani, Mohit, 2019. "Sudden stops of capital flows: Do foreign assets behave differently from foreign liabilities?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 28-36.
    9. Yazdani , Mahdi & Daryani , Elmira, 2021. "Output Loss from Sudden Stop of FDI and the Role of Macroeconomic Policies," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 213-236, June.
    10. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2018. "Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 761-796.
    11. Feng Guo & Jie Li & Ming Li, 2021. "The sudden stops of debt‐led capital inflows, credit crunch, and exchange rate regimes," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 956-977, May.
    12. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    13. Abdilahi Ali & Katsushi S. Imai, 2015. "Editor's choice Crises, Economic Integration and Growth Collapses in African Countries," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(4), pages 471-501.
    14. Fabiani, Josefina & Fidora, Michael & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas & Zorell, Nico, 2021. "Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2597, European Central Bank.
    15. Cavallo, Eduardo & Powell, Andrew & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Tavella, Pilar, 2015. "A new taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops should countries be most concerned about?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 47-70.
    16. Javier Bianchi & Enrique Mendoza, 2020. "A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 254-283, August.
    17. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    18. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 143-197.
    19. Bugamelli, Matteo & Paternò, Francesco, 2009. "Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1821-1838, December.
    20. Cowan, Kevin & Raddatz, Claudio, 2013. "Sudden stops and financial frictions: Evidence from industry-level data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 99-128.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade openness; sudden stops; exchange rate depreciation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01247628. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.