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Regime-switching in emerging market business cycles: Interest rate volatility and sudden stops

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  • Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo
  • Tenorio, Gabriel

Abstract

We document the presence of discrete regime-switching in emerging market business cycles, particularly in the volatility of interest rates at which countries borrow internationally, using a multi-country regime-switching vector autoregressive model. We study the statistical relationship of such business cycle regimes with episodes of sudden stops. Periods of high volatility tend to be persistent and are associated with high interest rates, the occurrence of sudden stops in external financing, and large declines in economic activity. Most strikingly, we show that regime switches drive the countercyclicality of interest rates in emerging markets documented in previous literature (Neumeyer and Perri, 2005) and that high-volatility regimes forecast sudden stops 6 and 12 months ahead.

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  • Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo & Tenorio, Gabriel, 2019. "Regime-switching in emerging market business cycles: Interest rate volatility and sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 81-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:93:y:2019:i:c:p:81-100
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.12.012
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    3. Michael Curran & Adnan Velic, 2020. "Interest rate volatility and macroeconomic dynamics: Heterogeneity matters," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 957-975, September.
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    5. Sergio De Ferra & Enrico Mallucci, 2020. "Sovereign Risk Matters: The Effects of Endogenous Default Risk on the Time-Varying Volatility of Interest Rate Spreads," International Finance Discussion Papers 1276, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo & Tenorio, Gabriel, 2020. "Macroprudential policy in the presence of external risks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Detemple, Jérôme & Kitapbayev, Yerkin & Reppen, A. Max, 2024. "Renewable energy investment under stochastic interest rate with regime-switching volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Regime switching and the responsiveness of prices to supply: The case of the Irish housing market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 82-94.
    9. de Ferra, Sergio & Mallucci, Enrico, 2022. "Sovereign risk matters: Endogenous default risk and the time-varying volatility of interest rate spreads," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Mara Leticia Rojas, 2020. "La economía argentina ayer y hoy: hechos estilizados y des-estilizados," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4400, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    11. Seung-Gwan Baek & Chi-Young Song, 2019. "What Drives Stops in Cross-Border Bond Flows?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-21, July.
    12. Masahiro Inoguchi, 2021. "The impact of foreign capital flows on long‐term interest rates in emerging and advanced economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 268-295, May.
    13. Hao Dong & Zhenghui Li & Pierre Failler, 2020. "The Impact of Business Cycle on Health Financing: Subsidized, Voluntary and Out-of-Pocket Health Spending," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-24, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Interest rates; Emerging market economies; Sudden stops; Markov regime-switching; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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