IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v159y2024ics0304405x24001223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary tightening and U.S. bank fragility in 2023: Mark-to-market losses and uninsured depositor runs?

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Erica Xuewei
  • Matvos, Gregor
  • Piskorski, Tomasz
  • Seru, Amit

Abstract

We develop a conceptual framework and an empirical methodology to analyze the effect of rising interest rates on the value of U.S. bank assets and bank stability. We mark-to-market the value of banks’ assets due to interest rate increases from Q1 2022 to Q1 2023, revealing an average decline of 10 %, totaling about $2 trillion in aggregate. We present a model illustrating how asset value declines due to higher rates can lead to self-fulfilling solvency runs even when banks’ assets are fully liquid. Banks with high asset losses, low capital, and, critically, high uninsured leverage are most fragile. A case study of the failed Silicon Valley Bank confirms the model insights. Our empirical measures of bank fragility suggest that, in the absence of regulatory intervention, many U.S. banks would have been at risk of self-fulfilling solvency runs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Erica Xuewei & Matvos, Gregor & Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2024. "Monetary tightening and U.S. bank fragility in 2023: Mark-to-market losses and uninsured depositor runs?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:159:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24001223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103899
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X24001223
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103899?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Amador & Javier Bianchi, 2024. "Bank Runs, Fragility, and Regulation," Working Papers 804, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Sarmiento Paipilla, Miguel, 2024. "The Transmission of Non-Banking Liquidity Shocks to the Banking Sector," Discussion Paper 2024-011, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. David P. Glancy & Felicia Ionescu & Elizabeth C. Klee & Antonis Kotidis & Michael Siemer & Andrei Zlate, 2024. "The 2023 Banking Turmoil and the Bank Term Funding Program," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), April.
    5. Giampaolo Bonomi & Ali Uppal, 2023. "Kites and Quails: Monetary Policy and Communication with Strategic Financial Markets," Papers 2305.08958, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    6. Koont, Naz & Santos, Tano & Zingales, Luigi, 2023. "Destabilizing digital "bank walks"," Working Papers 328, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    7. Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.
    8. Lyócsa, Štefan & Halousková, Martina & Haugom, Erik, 2023. "The US banking crisis in 2023: Intraday attention and price variation of banks at risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. D’Ercole, Francesco & Wagner, Alexander F., 2023. "The green energy transition and the 2023 Banking Crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    10. Raymond Kim, 2024. "Hedging securities and Silicon Valley Bank idiosyncrasies," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 653-672, April.
    11. Axelle Arquié, 2023. "Fire Sales and Bank Runs in the Presence of a Saving Allocation by Depositors," Working Papers 2023-09, CEPII research center.
    12. Citterio, Alberto, 2024. "Bank failure prediction models: Review and outlook," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary tightening; Uninsured depositors; Solvency Runs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • L5 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:159:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24001223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.