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As interest rates surge: flighty deposits and lending

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  • Cappelletti, Giuseppe
  • Marqués-Ibáñez, David
  • Reghezza, Alessio
  • Salleo, Carmelo

Abstract

How a historic drop in bank deposits shapes banks’ loan supply? We exploit the effects of a large, and unexpected, increase in monetary policy rates to estimate the deposit channel of monetary policy using an extensive credit register that includes all bank-firm lending relationships in all euro area countries. We find that banks experiencing large deposit outflows reduce credit, but not the interest rate they charge, to the same borrower relative to other lenders. This credit restriction is stronger for fixed rate and longer maturity loans, but not for riskier borrowers. The effect is mostly driven by banks coming into the hiking period with a larger unhedged duration gap that renders borrowers of those banks more vulnerable to credit restrictions due to the deposit outflows as interest rates surge. We resort to the deposit beta as an instrument variable and a matched estimator that bear out the thrust of our results. JEL Classification: E51, E58, G21

Suggested Citation

  • Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Reghezza, Alessio & Salleo, Carmelo, 2024. "As interest rates surge: flighty deposits and lending," Working Paper Series 2923, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242923
    Note: 2772546
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank deposits; banks; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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