IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jfinan/v79y2024i6p3729-3772.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mortgage Lock‐In, Mobility, and Labor Reallocation

Author

Listed:
  • JULIA FONSECA
  • LU LIU

Abstract

We study the impact of rising mortgage rates on mobility and labor reallocation. Using individual‐level credit record data and variation in the timing of mortgage origination, we show that a 1 percentage point decline in the difference between mortgage rates locked in at origination and current rates reduces moving by 9% overall and 16% between 2022 and 2024, and this relationship is asymmetric. Mortgage lock‐in also dampens flows in and out of self‐employment and the responsiveness to shocks to nearby employment opportunities that require moving, measured as wage growth within a 50‐ to 150‐mile ring and instrumented with a shift‐share instrument.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Fonseca & Lu Liu, 2024. "Mortgage Lock‐In, Mobility, and Labor Reallocation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 3729-3772, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:79:y:2024:i:6:p:3729-3772
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13398
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13398
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jofi.13398?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony A. Defusco & John Mondragon, 2020. "No Job, No Money, No Refi: Frictions to Refinancing in a Recession," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2327-2376, October.
    2. Jensen, Thais Laerkholm & Leth-Petersen, Søren & Nanda, Ramana, 2022. "Financing constraints, home equity and selection into entrepreneurship," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 318-337.
    3. Chan, Sewin, 2001. "Spatial Lock-in: Do Falling House Prices Constrain Residential Mobility?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 567-586, May.
    4. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren, 2018. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exposure Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1107-1162.
    5. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 255-269, June.
    6. Badarinza, Cristian & Ramadorai, Tarun & Siljander, Juhana & Tripathy, Jagdish, 2024. "Behavioral Lock-In: Aggregate Implications of Reference Dependence in the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 19123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kerr, Sari Pekkala & Kerr, William R. & Nanda, Ramana, 2022. "House prices, home equity and entrepreneurship: Evidence from U.S. census micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-119.
    8. Eric Chyn & Lawrence F. Katz, 2021. "Neighborhoods Matter: Assessing the Evidence for Place Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 197-222, Fall.
    9. Bracke, Philippe & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Silva, Olmo, 2018. "Mortgage debt and entrepreneurship," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-66.
    10. Emi Nakamura & Jósef Sigurdsson & Jón Steinsson, 2022. "The Gift of Moving: Intergenerational Consequences of a Mobility Shock," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1557-1592.
    11. Cristian Badarinza & John Y. Campbell & Tarun Ramadorai, 2016. "International Comparative Household Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 111-144, October.
    12. David H. Autor & Christopher J. Palmer & Parag A. Pathak, 2014. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from the End of Rent Control in Cambridge, Massachusetts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 661-717.
    13. Martin C. Schmalz & David A. Sraer & David Thesmar, 2017. "Housing Collateral and Entrepreneurship," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 99-132, February.
    14. Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Kyle Matoba & Şelale Tüzel, 2018. "Proposition 13: An Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 24-51, April.
    15. John Y. Campbell, 2013. "Mortgage Market Design," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-33.
    16. Tatyana Deryugina & Laura Kawano & Steven Levitt, 2018. "The Economic Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Its Victims: Evidence from Individual Tax Returns," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 202-233, April.
    17. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    18. Edward L. Glaeser & Erzo F. P. Luttmer, 2003. "The Misallocation of Housing Under Rent Control," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1027-1046, September.
    19. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    20. Andreas Fuster & Aurel Hizmo & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & James Vickery & Paul S. Willen, 2021. "How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ferreira, Fernando, 2010. "You can take it with you: Proposition 13 tax benefits, residential mobility, and willingness to pay for housing amenities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 661-673, October.
    22. Pekkala Kerr, Sari & Kerr, William, 2020. "Immigrant entrepreneurship in America: Evidence from the survey of business owners 2007 & 2012," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(3).
    23. Steffen Andersen & John Y. Campbell & Kasper Meisner Nielsen & Tarun Ramadorai, 2020. "Sources of Inaction in Household Finance: Evidence from the Danish Mortgage Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3184-3230, October.
    24. Peter Bergman & Raj Chetty & Stefanie DeLuca & Nathaniel Hendren & Lawrence F. Katz & Christopher Palmer, 2024. "Creating Moves to Opportunity: Experimental Evidence on Barriers to Neighborhood Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(5), pages 1281-1337, May.
    25. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Patrick Kline & Emmanuel Saez, 2014. "Where is the land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1553-1623.
    26. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "Housing busts and household mobility: an update," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Nov), pages 1-15.
    27. Ning Jia & Raven Molloy & Christopher Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2023. "The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 144-180, March.
    28. John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2011. "The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 211-251, January.
    29. Gamber, William & Graham, James & Yadav, Anirudh, 2023. "Stuck at home: Housing demand during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    30. Karahan, Fatih & Rhee, Serena, 2019. "Geographic reallocation and unemployment during the Great Recession: The role of the housing bust," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 47-69.
    31. Adam M. Guren & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Timothy J. Mcquade, 2021. "Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 113-168, February.
    32. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & David I. Laibson, 2013. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed‐Form Solution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 591-622, June.
    33. Stefano Corradin & Alexander Popov, 2015. "House Prices, Home Equity Borrowing, and Entrepreneurship," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(8), pages 2399-2428.
    34. Jack Favilukis & Pierre Mabille & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2023. "Affordable Housing and City Welfare," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 293-330.
    35. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Christopher J Palmer, 2020. "How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(3), pages 1498-1528.
    36. Jiang, Erica Xuewei & Matvos, Gregor & Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2024. "Monetary tightening and U.S. bank fragility in 2023: Mark-to-market losses and uninsured depositor runs?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    37. John Y. Campbell & Nuno Clara & João F. Cocco, 2021. "Structuring Mortgages for Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2525-2576, October.
    38. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    39. Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 2010. "Housing busts and household mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 34-45, July.
    40. Pierre Azoulay & Benjamin F. Jones & J. Daniel Kim & Javier Miranda, 2022. "Immigration and Entrepreneurship in the United States," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 71-88, March.
    41. Asaf Bernstein, 2021. "Negative Home Equity and Household Labor Supply," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2963-2995, December.
    42. Asaf Bernstein & Daan Struyven, 2022. "Housing Lock: Dutch Evidence on the Impact of Negative Home Equity on Household Mobility," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 1-32, August.
    43. Rebecca Diamond & Tim McQuade & Franklin Qian, 2019. "The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3365-3394, September.
    44. Foote, Andrew, 2016. "The effects of negative house price changes on migration: Evidence across U.S. housing downturns," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 292-299.
    45. Jesper Berg & Morten Bækmand Nielsen & James Vickery, 2018. "Peas in a pod? Comparing the U.S. and Danish mortgage finance systems," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 24-3, pages 63-87.
    46. Alicia M. Robb & David T. Robinson, 2014. "The Capital Structure Decisions of New Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 153-179, January.
    47. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    48. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Nathaniel Hendren & Maggie R. Jones & Sonya R. Porter, 2018. "The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility," Working Papers 18-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    49. Brown, Jennifer & Matsa, David A., 2020. "Locked in by leverage: Job search during the housing crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 623-648.
    50. Elliot Anenberg & Patrick Bayer, 2020. "Endogenous Sources Of Volatility In Housing Markets: The Joint Buyer–Seller Problem," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1195-1228, August.
    51. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren, 2018. "The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility II: County-Level Estimates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1163-1228.
    52. Gupta, Arpit & Mittal, Vrinda & Peeters, Jonas & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2022. "Flattening the curve: Pandemic-Induced revaluation of urban real estate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 594-636.
    53. Antoinette Schoar, 2010. "The Divide between Subsistence and Transformational Entrepreneurship," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 10, pages 57-81, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    55. Martin Beraja & Andreas Fuster & Erik Hurst & Joseph Vavra, 2019. "Regional Heterogeneity and the Refinancing Channel of Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 109-183.
    56. Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2018. "Mortgage Market Design: Lessons from the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 429-513.
    57. Sumit Agarwal & Richard J. Rosen & Vincent Yao, 2016. "Why Do Borrowers Make Mortgage Refinancing Mistakes?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(12), pages 3494-3509, December.
    58. Anenberg, Elliot, 2011. "Loss aversion, equity constraints and seller behavior in the real estate market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 67-76, January.
    59. Steffen Andersen & Cristian Badarinza & Lu Liu & Julie Marx & Tarun Ramadorai, 2022. "Reference Dependence in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(10), pages 3398-3440, October.
    60. Olivier J Blanchard & Alex Domash & Lawrence H. Summers, 2022. "Bad news for the Fed from the Beveridge space," Policy Briefs PB22-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    61. Madeira, Carlos, 2021. "The potential impact of financial portability measures on mortgage refinancing: Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    62. Elliot Anenberg & Steven Laufer, 2017. "A More Timely House Price Index," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 722-734, July.
    63. Radhakrishnan Gopalan & Barton H Hamilton & Ankit Kalda & David Sovich & Holger Mueller, 2021. "Home Equity and Labor Income: The Role of Constrained Mobility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(10), pages 4619-4662.
    64. Tomasz Piskorski & Alexei Tchistyi, 2010. "Optimal Mortgage Design," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3098-3140, August.
    65. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:429-513 is not listed on IDEAS
    66. Julia Fonseca, 2023. "Less Mainstream Credit, More Payday Borrowing? Evidence from Debt Collection Restrictions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 63-103, February.
    67. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:591-622 is not listed on IDEAS
    68. Agarwal, Rajshree & Shah, Sonali K., 2014. "Knowledge sources of entrepreneurship: Firm formation by academic, user and employee innovators," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1109-1133.
    69. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Lawrence F. Katz, 2016. "The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 855-902, April.
    70. Engelhardt, Gary V., 2003. "Nominal loss aversion, housing equity constraints, and household mobility: evidence from the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 171-195, January.
    71. Jack Liebersohn & Jesse Rothstein, 2024. "Household Mobility and Mortgage Rate Lock," NBER Working Papers 32781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    72. Nada Wasi & Michelle J. White, 2005. "Property Tax Limitations and Mobility: The Lock-in Effect of California's Proposition 13," NBER Working Papers 11108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    73. Yueran Ma & Kaspar Zimmermann, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 31698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    74. Black, Jane & de Meza, David & Jeffreys, David, 1996. "House Price, the Supply of Collateral and the Enterprise Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 60-75, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ning Jia & Raven Molloy & Christopher Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2023. "The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 144-180, March.
    2. Liu, Lu, 2023. "The demand for long-term mortgage contracts and the role of collateral," Bank of England working papers 1009, Bank of England.
    3. Steffen Andersen & Cristian Badarinza & Lu Liu & Julie Marx & Tarun Ramadorai, 2022. "Reference Dependence in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(10), pages 3398-3440, October.
    4. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    5. Fisher, Jack & Gavazza, Alessandro & Liu, Lu & Ramadorai, Tarun & Tripathy, Jagdish, 2024. "Refinancing cross-subsidies in the mortgage market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Chapelle, Guillaume & Domènech Arumí, Gerard & Gobbi, Paula Eugenia, 2023. "Housing, Neighborhoods and Inequality," CEPR Discussion Papers 17969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Liu, Lu, 2023. "The demand for long-term mortgage contracts and the role of collateral," ESRB Working Paper Series 142, European Systemic Risk Board.
    8. Andreas Fuster & David Lucca & James Vickery, 2023. "Mortgage-backed securities," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 15, pages 331-357, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Saiz, Albert, 2023. "The Global Housing Affordability Crisis: Policy Options and Strategies," IZA Policy Papers 203, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 2010. "Housing busts and household mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 34-45, July.
    11. Jensen, Thais Laerkholm & Leth-Petersen, Søren & Nanda, Ramana, 2022. "Financing constraints, home equity and selection into entrepreneurship," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 318-337.
    12. John Y. Campbell & Nuno Clara & João F. Cocco, 2021. "Structuring Mortgages for Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2525-2576, October.
    13. Kerr, Sari Pekkala & Kerr, William R. & Nanda, Ramana, 2022. "House prices, home equity and entrepreneurship: Evidence from U.S. census micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-119.
    14. Kristopher Gerardi & Franklin Qian & David Hao Zhang, 2024. "Mortgage Lock-in, Lifecycle Migration, and the Welfare Effects of Housing Market Liquidity," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    15. Brown, Jennifer & Matsa, David A., 2020. "Locked in by leverage: Job search during the housing crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 623-648.
    16. Tamar Ramot-Nyska, 2023. "Changing Residential Mobility Considerations: The Case of Public Housing in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2023.15, Bank of Israel.
    17. Sezer, Ayse Hazal, 2024. "Historical and contemporary perspectives on labor," Other publications TiSEM 88c702e1-8259-4424-b68a-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Matteo Benetton & Philippe Bracke & João F Cocco & Nicola Garbarinoifo, 2022. "Housing Consumption and Investment: Evidence from Shared Equity Mortgages," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3525-3573.
    19. Philippe Bracke & Silvana Tenreyro, 2021. "History Dependence in the Housing Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 420-443, April.
    20. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Dennett, Julia, 2013. "Are American homeowners locked into their houses? The impact of housing market conditions on state-to-state migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 322-337.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:79:y:2024:i:6:p:3729-3772. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.