IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v132y2019i1p26-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Indexing and stock market serial dependence around the world

Author

Listed:
  • Baltussen, Guido
  • van Bekkum, Sjoerd
  • Da, Zhi

Abstract

We show a striking change in index return serial dependence across 20 major market indexes covering 15 countries in North America, Europe, and Asia. While many studies find serial dependence to be positive until the 1990s, it switches to negative since the 2000s. This change happens in most stock markets around the world and is both statistically significant and economically meaningful. Further tests reveal that the decline in serial dependence links to the increasing popularity of index products (e.g., futures, exchange-traded funds, and index mutual funds). The link between serial dependence and indexing is not driven by a time trend, holds up in the cross section of stock indexes, is confirmed by tests exploiting Nikkei 225 index weights and Standard & Poor’s 500 membership, and in part reflects the arbitrage mechanism between index products and the underlying stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Baltussen, Guido & van Bekkum, Sjoerd & Da, Zhi, 2019. "Indexing and stock market serial dependence around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 26-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:132:y:2019:i:1:p:26-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.07.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X18302034
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.07.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1901-1930 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    3. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    4. O'Hara, Maureen & Ye, Mao, 2011. "Is market fragmentation harming market quality?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 459-474, June.
    5. Itzhak Ben‐David & Francesco Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2018. "Do ETFs Increase Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2471-2535, December.
    6. Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
    7. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-425, October.
    8. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
    9. McQueen, Grant & Pinegar, Michael & Thorley, Steven, 1996. "Delayed Reaction to Good News and the Cross-Autocorrelation of Portfolio Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 889-919, July.
    10. Atchison, Michael D & Butler, Kirt C & Simonds, Richard R, 1987. "Nonsynchronous Security Trading and Market Index Autocorrelation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 111-118, March.
    11. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    12. Petri Jylhä & Kalle Rinne & Matti Suominen, 2014. "Do Hedge Funds Supply or Demand Liquidity?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1259-1298.
    13. Kewei Hou, 2007. "Industry Information Diffusion and the Lead-lag Effect in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1113-1138.
    14. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    15. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    16. Robin Greenwood, 2008. "Excess Comovement of Stock Returns: Evidence from Cross-Sectional Variation in Nikkei 225 Weights," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1153-1186, May.
    17. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    18. Lo, Andrew W. & Craig MacKinlay, A., 1990. "An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 181-211.
    19. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    20. Allaudeen Hameed, 1997. "Time-Varying Factors And Cross-Autocorrelations In Short-Horizon Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 435-458, December.
    21. Badrinath, S G & Kale, Jayant R & Noe, Thomas H, 1995. "Of Shepherds, Sheep, and the Cross-autocorrelations in Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 401-430.
    22. Hawawini, Gabriel A., 1980. "Intertemporal Cross-Dependence in Securities Daily Returns and the Short-Run Intervaling Effect on Systematic Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 139-149, March.
    23. Hong, Harrison & Kubik, Jeffrey D. & Fishman, Tal, 2012. "Do arbitrageurs amplify economic shocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 454-470.
    24. Robert F. Stambaugh, 2014. "Presidential Address: Investment Noise and Trends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1415-1453, August.
    25. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1989. "Mean Reversion in Short-Horizon Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 225-240.
    26. Brennan, Michael J & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 1993. "Investment Analysis and the Adjustment of Stock Prices to Common Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 799-824.
    27. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
    28. Hameed, Allaudeen, 1997. "Time-Varying Factors and Cross-Autocorrelations in Short-Horizon Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 435-458, Winter.
    29. Greenwood, Robin, 2005. "Short- and long-term demand curves for stocks: theory and evidence on the dynamics of arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 607-649, March.
    30. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1998. "An Anatomy of Trading Strategies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 489-519.
    31. Richardson, Matthew P & Smith, Tom, 1994. "A Unified Approach to Testing for Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 371-399, July.
    32. Tarun Chordia & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Trading Volume and Cross‐Autocorrelations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 913-935, April.
    33. Allaudeen Hameed & Wenjin Kang & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Stock Market Declines and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 257-293, February.
    34. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2005. "Evidence on the speed of convergence to market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 271-292, May.
    35. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Amit Goyal, 2006. "Liquidity and Autocorrelations in Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2365-2394, October.
    36. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1991. "A Theory of Trading in Stock Index Futures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 17-51.
    37. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2002. "Partial Adjustment or Stale Prices? Implications from Stock Index and Futures Return Autocorrelations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 655-689, March.
    38. Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Presidential Address: The Cost of Active Investing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1537-1573, August.
    39. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam & Nimalendran, M., 1991. "Components of short-horizon individual security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 365-384, October.
    40. Robert F. Stambaugh, 2014. "Investment Noise and Trends," NBER Working Papers 20072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Schwartz, Robert A & Whitcomb, David K, 1977. "The Time-Variance Relationship: Evidence on Autocorrelation in Common Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 41-55, March.
    42. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew P & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. "A Tale of Three Schools: Insights on Autocorrelations of Short-Horizon Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 539-573.
    43. Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-152.
    44. Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2000. "Stock index futures trading and volatility in international equity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 661-685, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Duffy & Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga A. Rud, 2019. "The Impact of ETFs on Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 154, Peruvian Economic Association.
    2. Kang, Wenjin & Tang, Ke & Wang, Ningli, 2023. "Financialization of commodity markets ten years later," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    3. Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "COVID-19 and stock returns: Evidence from the Markov switching dependence approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Zaremba, Adam & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Long, Huaigang & Mercik, Aleksander & Szczygielski, Jan J., 2021. "Up or down? Short-term reversal, momentum, and liquidity effects in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Nathan Converse & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Tomas Williams & Itay Goldstein, 2023. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(9), pages 3423-3462.
    6. Zaremba, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2019. "Short-term momentum (almost) everywhere," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Coles, Jeffrey L. & Heath, Davidson & Ringgenberg, Matthew C., 2022. "On index investing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 665-683.
    8. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Misery on Main Street, victory on Wall Street: Economic discomfort and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Guo, Yawei & Li, Jianping & Li, Yehua & You, Wanhai, 2021. "The roles of political risk and crude oil in stock market based on quantile cointegration approach: A comparative study in China and US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    11. Duffy, John & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A., 2021. "The impact of ETFs in secondary asset markets: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 674-696.
    12. Gareth Liu-Evans, 2021. "Improving the Estimation and Predictions of Small Time Series Models," Working Papers 202106, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    13. Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet & Maydybura, Alina, 2020. "Where have the profits gone? Market efficiency and the disappearing equity anomalies in country and industry returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Bogousslavsky, Vincent & Muravyev, Dmitriy, 2023. "Who trades at the close? Implications for price discovery and liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Chincarini, Ludwig B. & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "The challenges of oil investing: Contango and the financialization of commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Shiyang Huang & Maureen O’Hara & Zhuo Zhong, 2021. "Innovation and Informed Trading: Evidence from Industry ETFs [Short interest, institutional ownership, and stock returns]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1280-1316.
    17. Rustam Ibragimov & Rasmus Pedersen & Anton Skrobotov, 2020. "New Approaches to Robust Inference on Market (Non-)Efficiency, Volatility Clustering and Nonlinear Dependence," Papers 2006.01212, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    18. Shen, Yiwen & Shi, Meiqi, 2024. "Intraday variation in cross-sectional stock comovement and impact of index-based strategies," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Baltussen, Guido & Swinkels, Laurens & Van Vliet, Pim, 2021. "Global factor premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1128-1154.
    20. Benjamin Bennett & René M. Stulz & Zexi Wang, 2020. "Does Joining the S&P 500 Index Hurt Firms?," NBER Working Papers 27593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Baltussen, Guido & Da, Zhi & Lammers, Sten & Martens, Martin, 2021. "Hedging demand and market intraday momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 377-403.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zaremba, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2019. "Short-term momentum (almost) everywhere," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2002. "Partial Adjustment or Stale Prices? Implications from Stock Index and Futures Return Autocorrelations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 655-689, March.
    3. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1999. "Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns," NBER Working Papers 7214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Chiao, Chaoshin & Hung, Ken & Lee, Cheng F., 2004. "The price adjustment and lead-lag relations between stock returns: microstructure evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 709-731, December.
    5. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-040, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    6. Victor DeMiguel & Francisco J. Nogales & Raman Uppal, 2014. "Stock Return Serial Dependence and Out-of-Sample Portfolio Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 1031-1073.
    7. Lee, Darren D. & Chan, Howard & Faff, Robert W. & Kalev, Petko S., 2003. "Short-term contrarian investing--is it profitable? ... Yes and No," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 385-404, December.
    8. Drakos, Anastassios A., 2016. "Does the relationship between small and large portfolios’ returns confirm the lead–lag effect? Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 546-561.
    9. Perron, Pierre & Chun, Sungju & Vodounou, Cosme, 2013. "Sampling interval and estimated betas: Implications for the presence of transitory components in stock prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 42-62.
    10. Sias, Richard W. & Starks, Laura T., 1997. "Return autocorrelation and institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 103-131, October.
    11. Masaki Mori, 2015. "Information Diffusion in the U.S. Real Estate Investment Trust Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 190-214, August.
    12. Anderson, Robert M. & Eom, Kyong Shik & Hahn, Sang Buhm & Park, Jong-Ho, 2007. "Stock Return Autocorrelation is Not Spurious," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2k7414sv, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    13. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Liano, Kartono & Huang, Gow-Cheng, 2004. "Industry momentum strategies and autocorrelations in stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 185-202, March.
    14. Bohl, Martin T. & Pütz, Alexander & Sulewski, Christoph, 2021. "Speculation and the informational efficiency of commodity futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    15. Wen-Jun Xue & Li-Wen Zhang, 2016. "Stock Return Autocorrelations and Predictability in the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from Threshold Quantile Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 1605, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    16. Kanas, Angelos & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2005. "A cointegration approach to the lead-lag effect among size-sorted equity portfolios," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 181-201.
    17. Xue, Wen-Jun & Zhang, Li-Wen, 2017. "Stock return autocorrelations and predictability in the Chinese stock market—Evidence from threshold quantile autoregressive models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 391-401.
    18. Simon Gervais & Ron Kaniel & Dan H. Mingelgrin, 2001. "The High‐Volume Return Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 877-919, June.
    19. Gebka, Bartosz, 2008. "Volume- and size-related lead-lag effects in stock returns and volatility: An empirical investigation of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 134-155.
    20. Palani-Rajan Kadapakkam & Timothy Krause & Yiuman Tse, 2015. "Exchange traded funds, size-based portfolios, and market efficiency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-110, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return autocorrelation; Stock market indexing; Exchange-traded funds (ETFs); Arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:132:y:2019:i:1:p:26-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.